Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

457 
WWUS84 KMAF 280132 AAA
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
732 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH 
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND 
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045-046-050-059-060-270-271-273-274-277-278-281200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0007.230228T1800Z-230301T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Andrews-Loving-Winkler-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
732 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 /632 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/
TO 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR
LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Gaines, Dawson, Andrews, Loving, Winkler, 
  Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, Chaves Plains, 
  Eddy Plains, Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, 
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Eastern Culberson County, 
  Reeves County Plains, Davis Mountains and Davis Mountains 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...Tuesday afternoon.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent.

* RFTI...6 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

70

771 
WWUS84 KMAF 280902
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
302 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 
MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE 
PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE 
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND 
MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

TXZ047-048-051-052-061-062-067-282100-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KMAF.FW.W.0007.230228T1800Z-230301T0100Z/
Borden-Scurry-Martin-Howard-Ector-Midland-Ward-
302 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 
MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
PERMIAN BASIN...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...

* AFFECTED AREA...Borden, Scurry, Martin, Howard, Ector, Midland
  and Ward Counties.

* TIMING...For the warning, noon today to 7 PM CST this evening.
  For the watch, late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Today, west 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
  Wednesday, west 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent.

* RFTI...6 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

NMZ116>119-TXZ045-046-050-059-060-270-271-273-274-277-278-282100-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0007.230228T1800Z-230301T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Andrews-Loving-Winkler-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
302 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 /202 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/
TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO 
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF 
WEST TEXAS... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND 
MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Gaines, Dawson, Andrews, Loving, Winkler, 
  Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, Chaves Plains, 
  Eddy Plains, Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, 
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Eastern Culberson County, 
  Reeves County Plains, Davis Mountains and Davis Mountains 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...For the warning, 12 PM CST/11 AM MST today to 7 PM
  CST/6 PM MST this evening. For the watch, late Wednesday 
  morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent.

* RFTI...7 or extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

TXZ068-075-082-272-275-276-279>282-282100-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Crane-Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Central Brewster County-
Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
302 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE HWY 54 CORRIDOR, LOWER TRANS 
PECOS, MARFA PLATEAU, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND BIG BEND REGION...

* AFFECTED AREA...Crane, Pecos, Terrell, Van Horn and Highway 54 
  Corridor, Chinati Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Central Brewster 
  County, Chisos Basin, Presidio Valley and Lower Brewster 
  County.

* TIMING...Late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent.

* RFTI...8 or extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

902 
WWUS84 KMAF 282019
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
219 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 
MPH OR GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE 
PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE 
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>052-059>062-067-270-271-273-274-277-278-
011100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230301T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Ward-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
219 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 /119 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Scurry, Andrews, 
  Martin, Howard, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Midland, Ward, 
  Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, Chaves Plains, 
  Eddy Plains, Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, 
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Eastern Culberson County, 
  Reeves County Plains, Davis Mountains and Davis Mountains 
  Foothills.

* TIMING...For the warning, 12 PM CST/11 AM MST today to 7 PM 
  CST/6 PM MST this evening. For the watch, late Wednesday 
  morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent.

* RFTI...7 or extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

TXZ068-075-082-272-275-276-279>282-011100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Crane-Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Central Brewster County-
Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
219 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE HWY 54 CORRIDOR, LOWER TRANS
PECOS, MARFA PLATEAU, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND BIG BEND REGION...

* AFFECTED AREA...Crane, Pecos, Terrell, Van Horn and Highway 54 
  Corridor, Chinati Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Central Brewster 
  County, Chisos Basin, Presidio Valley and Lower Brewster 
  County.

* TIMING...Late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* RFTI...7 or extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

498 
WWUS84 KMAF 282243
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
443 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER,
AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, 
UPPER TRANS PECOS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE DAVIS 
MOUNTAINS...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF
20 MPH OR GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>052-059>062-067-270-271-273-274-277-278-
011045-
/O.UPG.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0008.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230301T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Ward-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
443 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 /343 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO 
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST 
TEXAS... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ 
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Until 7 PM CST/6 PM MST this evening, and again from
  late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Today, southwest 25 to 35 with gusts to 40 to 55 mph
  across the plains, and west 40 to 50 with gusts to 65 mph in the
  Guadalupe Mountains. On Wednesday, southwest winds 25 to 40 mph
  with gusts to 45 to 65 mph across the plains, and west winds 45
  to 65 mph with gusts to 65 to 75 mph in the mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent today and Wednesday.

* RFTI...5 to 8 or critical to extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

TXZ068-075-082-272-275-276-279>282-011045-
/O.UPG.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0008.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Crane-Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Central Brewster County-
Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
443 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ 
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph across the 
  lower elevations, and 35 to 55 with gusts to 75 mph across 
  higher elevations.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...5 to 8 or critical to extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

TXZ053-063-069-070-011045-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0008.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Mitchell-Glasscock-Upton-Reagan-
443 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ 
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 with gusts to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* RFTI...3 or near critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the potential
  to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure that 
  chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, thereby
  eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
237 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

West-southwest quasi-zonal flow aloft continues through mid-week
consistently at 60-70kts at 500mb. A weak to marginal mountain wave
signature develops each afternoon in the Guadalupes in this setup,
with a High Wind Warning currently in effect for today here and the
Davis'. High winds each afternoon continue into Wednesday ahead of
another widespread wind event Thursday, so we've opted to place the
Guadalupe Mountains in a long-fuse High Wind Warning from
late Tuesday morning through Thursday evening.

Otherwise, weather remains fairly quiescent today and tomorrow,
though will be a bit more breezy tomorrow. Lows tonight and tomorrow
night fall into the 30s and 40s. Some stronger downslope wind
components tomorrow help push high temperatures into the 70s and mid-
80s. With persistent westerly surface flow, it will be quite dry
today and even drier tomorrow, resulting in critical fire weather
each afternoon as well. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for
more details.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

 * Damaging Winds Areawide Thursday*

The extended forecast starts off fairly quiet Wednesday before a
major storm system arrives Thursday with more damaging winds and
critical fire weather conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft will
continue over the area with a nearly continuous mountain wave across
the Guadalupe Mountains. This translates to another long-fused high
wind event that will drag through Thursday. A backdoor cold front
looks to sneak into the Permian Basin early Wednesday, but will
likely wash out and as deep mixing occurs by afternoon. Temperatures
will remain well above normal with breezy southwest winds once again
during the afternoon. This will lead to increased fire weather
concerns, especially across the western half of the area. See the
Fire Wx discussion below.

Attention then turns to a potent upper storm system over the Desert
SW that will high-tail our way by Thursday. This system has many
similarities to Sunday's storm when it comes to wind. The upper
trough will plow across the CWA during the day Thursday bringing
with it damaging winds and widespread blowing dust once again. Winds
will strengthen during the late morning hours ahead of a powerful
Pacific cold front. Wind gusts behind this front could reach upward
of 60 to 70 mph across a large part of the area, including areas
south of I-10 who largely missed the last wind event. A High Wind
Watch is likely to be issued for much if not the entire forecast
area over the next day. Enough mid level moisture and cold air will
be present across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of SE NM to
bring a rain/snow mix, but a warm ground and low QPF amounts will
keep any impacts low. A chilly Pacific airmass will fill in behind
the front, but very dry air combined with the winds will still
promote critical fire weather conditions for much of the area.

We end the week with much calmer conditions and temperatures below
normal following another cold front Saturday. Warm and dry
conditions return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

VFR will continue throughout the period with some gradually
increasing high clouds. Winds stay largely out of the west through
this afternoon with some gusts developing within the next hour or
so, diminishing by sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Gusty winds will continue across the higher terrain and adjacent
plains through the rest of the afternoon. RH's have fallen to near
10 percent so we are seeing solid critical fire weather
conditions.

A large scale trough to our west will promote southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday. Lee surface troughing will lead to mostly
a west wind across the area keeping the dryline to our east. Gusty
winds again Tuesday afternoon along with very dry air will likely
lead to more critical fire weather conditions, mainly over the NW
half of the area. A Red Flag Warning has been issued. The worst of
the weather will peak Wednesday into Thursday with yet another
potent synoptic storm set to arrive. Very warm, dry conditions
along with gusty winds Wednesday will lead to locally extreme
RFTIs, especially across the northern Permian Basin, SE NM, and
areas west of the Pecos River. By Thursday, the big even arrives
and looks similar to Sunday. The difference is more widespread
with wind gusts >60 mph are likely across much of the region. The
strongest winds are expected behind a Pacific front with
temperatures cooling during the afternoon. Very dry air will still
mix in behind the front and combine with the intense winds to
produce widespread critical fire weather conditions. We could also
see starts due to power lines snapping or sparking. Fuels have
been stable over the past couple months maintaining near normal
moisture. Yesterday may have pushed us into the dry category and
with little recovery over the next few days, it won't take much to
produce at least moderate IA activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               41  78  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 39  72  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   47  85  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            44  82  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           40  63  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    39  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    35  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     41  77  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   43  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 7 PM CST /6 PM
     MST/ Tuesday for Andrews-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Reeves County Plains-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Tuesday to 9 PM CST
     /8 PM MST/ Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Thursday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
210 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-282015-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
210 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 /110 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A High Wind Warning is in effect through late evening for the
Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through early evening for Southeast
New Mexico and most of West Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A High Wind Warning is in effect Tuesday through Thursday evening
for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Damaging wind is likely
areawide Thursday.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected through at least
Thursday, especially over Southeast New Mexico and the higher
terrain of West Texas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland