Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

621 
WWUS84 KMAF 101919
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
219 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, 
AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND 
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ270-271-273-110200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230511T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-
219 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 /119 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, 
AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND 
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, 
  Chaves Plains, Eddy Plains, Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 
  7000 Feet, Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and Eastern 
  Culberson County.

* TIMING...This afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 3 percent.

* RFTI...5 to 6 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow quickly into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

An upper trough off the coast of California is beginning to kick out
the ridge that has been situated over Texas the past few days, so
highs will reach the 90s today before a cooling trend sets in for
the remainder of the week. A shortwave pushes up from the southwest
today, providing lift for storm development, although concerns for
severe storms have eased a bit compared to earlier forecast
packages. Lapse rates remain on the higher end, indicating a hail
threat, but limited shear and mixed-layer CAPE shouldn't be able to
hold things together long enough for significant storms. Increasing
moisture from the southeast has been limited somewhat due to MCS
over central and south Texas advecting drier air to the area.
Ultimately, the main threats expected this afternoon are hail and
strong wind gusts, but storms are expected to remain sub-severe. As
always in the spring time, make sure to keep an eye on the weather
today as things may change quickly. For now, storms look to develop
in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau by early
afternoon, tracking further east and north into the Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos by early evening. Storms should move out by
late evening.

Overnight temperatures will be mild as dew points rise to the 60s
for most areas east of the TX/NM line. The aforementioned ridge will
be pushed east as the approaching trough reaches New Mexico on
Wednesday. The gradient will tightens across the west and a 55-60kt
500mb jet max develops over New Mexico and far western Texas,
resulting in some stronger winds in the higher terrain Wednesday
afternoon and evening. With the departure of the ridge, temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday in the upper 80s to low
90s with clear skies. Wednesday remains a little uncertain w.r.t
storms development, especially in the afternoon time frame.
Convection looks to develop off the dryline sometime Wednesday
afternoon or early evening near the TX/NM border, and storms will
then propagate eastward into the Permian Basin and I-20 corridor.
CAPE and shear remain marginal at best, so once again storms may
struggle to hold together to create a widespread severe threat. A
few severe storms will remain possible, though, with large hail and
damaging winds as the main threats. PWs around 1" could result in
some brief, heavy rainfall in these storms, although anything more
than localized flooding isn't expected. Models are hinting at the
possibility of some late night convection as the jet max moves into
West Texas and the Panhandle late Wednesday night, aiding storm
development off the dryline. This could result in a line of storms
stretching from Seminole down to Fort Stockton, tracking eastward
through early Thursday morning. These storms will struggle in a
similar environment as the afternoon convection, but hail and
damaging winds will once again be possible. Make sure to keep your
phone turned on Wednesday night in case any warnings are issued.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday morning in the 40s and
50s across the west due to the upper trough approaching Texas with
drier air moving in, while areas further east should remain warmer
in the 60s with the better moisture and ample cloud cover.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Upper low over CO Thursday morning lifts NE into the Central Plains
as the associated trough deepens into Mexico Friday.  While this is
happening a ridge builds up the West Coast.  Shortwaves will rotate
through the base of the trough and into the region Friday night and
Saturday.   A low will develop Saturday over WY/UT and retrograde to
the west Sunday and Monday.

Did have a couple brief respites last summer but otherwise am in the
middle of an extended drought going back to the middle of 2021. MAF
rainfall year to date is only 0.54 and am 2.34 inches behind for the
year. While am encouraged to have potential for beneficial rainfall
this weekend there is still plenty of opportunity for things not to
work out for the region. The best chances for a good rain will be
for the eastern counties of Scurry to Terrell.

Currently have decent dewpts over the eastern CWA but A west wind
Thursday will wipe out the low level moisture as the dryline pushes
east. Moisture will begin to return to the area Friday. It appears
for extended heavy rain to develop here this weekend need to have a
front move down into the area and stall out becoming a focus for
convection.  Latest GFS pushes this front through Saturday.

NBM pops very high on Saturday with definite moderate showers and a
chance for storms.  WPC qpf developing precip areawide this weekend
with 1 to 3 inches accumulation along and east of the Pecos River.
That would be great to see but have my doubts.  So potential will
exist for some flash flooding with this event but expect many
locations will miss out.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal Thursday and
Friday.  Readings are expected to be cooler and mostly in the 70s
Sat... Sun and Mon but this will be rain dependent.  Lows in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except in areas of
direct convection. KMAF VWP shows a 35kt LLJ has developed this
morning, which will maintain return flow overnight. Return flow
continues Wednesday, with a few gusts expected. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field late morning/early afternoon all
terminals except KCNM. Winds begin veering after sundown Wednesday
night as a Pac front approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  63  91  64 /  30  50  10   0
Carlsbad                 93  54  87  52 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   92  66  93  68 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            94  60  91  62 /  20  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           84  54  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    90  54  85  53 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                    89  47  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     91  62  89  63 /  30  40   0  10
Odessa                   92  63  88  63 /  20  40   0  10
Wink                     95  55  90  55 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills
     and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
321 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-110830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
321 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 /221 AM MDT Wed May 10 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Red Flag is in effect for Southeast New Mexico and portions of west
Texas today for critical fire weather conditions.

Thunderstorms are possible across the Permian Basin this afternoon
and evening. Some storms may be strong to severe, capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a large portion of
the area on Thursday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday through the
weekend, with potential for localized flooding Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland