Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Winds have already returned to the southeast this morning following
yesterdays cold front. A mid level cloud deck has helped keep
temperatures up overnight with most locations in the 50s. We should
still see temperatures drop through sunrise as clouds begin to
diminish. Today will be the pick of the week with winds generally 10
to 15 mph and temperatures in the 70s. Much warmer conditions are
expected overnight as low level moisture increases. By Thursday, an
upper trough begins to approach the area from the west. SW flow
aloft ahead of this system will induce leeside troughing leading to
increasing south winds. A dryline will mix east across the area
during the afternoon likely stalling across the western Permian
Basin. West of this boundary expect gusty southwest winds and
humidity values under 10 percent. These conditions along with drying
fuels will lead to critical fire weather conditions. A 50-70 kt mid
level jet will traverse the region late Thursday into Friday morning
so have gone ahead and issued High Wind Watches for the Guadalupe,
Delaware, and Davis Mountains. Please see the Fire Wx discussion
below for more info. East of the dryline moisture values will remain
higher, but gusty south winds (possibly close to advisory
conditions) will also be present. The threat for any storms looks to
remain well to our north and east where better forcing lies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

Friday sees the passages of another Pacific front across the region
and that will take temperatures down near or below normal during the
afternoon. Winds will pick up across the Plains during the day as an
upper level low passes just north of the area. An associated 700 mb
jet with 60-70 kt winds will orient SW to NE late Thursday into
Friday morning. As it stands, other wind products will likely be
needed across much of the area. Winds decrease Friday night as the
upper low ejects to the east.

With the passage of the Friday front, significantly drier air
spreads across the forecast area. This combined with the winds will
lead to critical fire weather conditions for southeast New Mexico
and much of West Texas. More details regarding fire weather can be
found below. The extended continues to be warm and dry with each day
well above normal in the 80s. Sunday and Monday look to be our
warmest day of the year so far with highs into the upper 80s to low
90s. The next system approaches Monday into Tuesday of the coming
week. No relief from the dry conditions in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023

VFR conditions and modest southeast winds will continue the next
24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  53  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 78  45  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   73  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            79  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           73  50  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    74  46  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    76  42  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     74  51  80  51 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   74  52  81  52 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     77  48  86  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for
     Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10

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