Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

163 
WWUS84 KMAF 110838
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ TO
8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN
15%, 20FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-270>279-112045-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0001.230111T1600Z-230112T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-
238 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 /138 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15%, 20FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST
TEXAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Scurry, Andrews, 
  Martin, Howard, Mitchell, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Midland, 
  Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Sacramento 
  Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, Chaves Plains, Eddy Plains, 
  Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, Guadalupe and 
  Delaware Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eastern 
  Culberson County, Reeves County Plains, Chinati Mountains, 
  Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, Davis Mountains Foothills and 
  Central Brewster County.

* TIMING...Late Wednesday morning until Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* RFTI...4 or near critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

704 
WWUS84 KMAF 111931
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
131 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ 
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15%, 20FT WINDS OF 
20 MPH OR MORE, AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO 
AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-270>279-120200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230112T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-
131 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 /1231 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15%, 20FT WINDS
OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Scurry, Andrews, 
  Martin, Howard, Mitchell, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Midland, 
  Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Sacramento 
  Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, Chaves Plains, Eddy Plains, 
  Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, Guadalupe and 
  Delaware Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eastern 
  Culberson County, Reeves County Plains, Chinati Mountains, 
  Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, Davis Mountains Foothills and 
  Central Brewster County.

* TIMING...Until this evening.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph across the
  plains. West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph in the
  mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...4 to 6 or near critical to critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1119 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Weak upper ridge extending up from Mexico today with near zonal flow
across the southern tier of states.  Next upper trough arrives on
the West Coast today and quickly progresses east crossing the Great
Basin tonight and the Rockies on Wednesday as it develops a closed
low.

SW wind early veers around to W today and downslope will aid the
warm up.  Warm temperatures continue today with near record highs in
the upper 70s at MAF with some 80s across the Eastern Permian Basin,
Lower Trans Pecos, and Rio Grande.  W wind will continue tonight
with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Wednesday will not be as warm then a
front moves down into the NW counties late in the day as temps drop
W to E.

Upper low passing by to the north Wednesday will result in windy
conditions across SE NM and W TX.  A High Wind Watch is in effect
for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and expect will end up with an
advisory for at least the adjacent plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

The quite robust shortwave trough and 700mb jet responsible for the
windy day on Wednesday departs to the east Wednesday night with
winds gradually winding down by Thursday morning. Westerly winds
shift to the north following the passage of a cold front, bringing
an end to the highly anomalous warmth seen earlier in the week.
Highs on Thursday will be down into the 50s and low 60s, relatively
normal for mid January. A cool night will follow as a surface high
will pass through under clear skies, with Friday morning lows
largely in the low to mid 30s. Upper level ridging builds in
Thursday into Saturday, kicking off a late-week warming trend that
will have us back in the upper 60s to low 70s by the weekend. The
next trough arrives Sunday into Monday which may bring more wind and
another front. Precipitation chances remain low and confined to the
far western zones Sunday night, serving as the only rain chances
through the long term.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

VFR with gusty westerly winds this afternoon which will die down
between 00-03z. Light west winds with increasing cloud cover overnight
before gusts return in the afternoon beginning around 16z at all
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 801 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Continued lack of rainfall through much this winter has helped to
cure fuels. This paired with the the above average and possibly
record setting temperatures early this week help to send ERCs near
the 75th percentile for much of the region by Wednesday. Critical
humidities are expected both this afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon across a large portion of the area with overnight
recoveries only reaching ~50% Tuesday night. Ahead of a stronger
system set to move through on Wednesday, increased winds may
result in patchy areas of elevated fire weather. Concerns ramp up
on Wednesday as a strong shortwave trough moves across northern
New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. A 50kt 700mb jet will
accompany this system, causing widespread winds of 25kts at the
surface with stronger gusts anticipated. RFTI values for Wednesday
afternoon are now largely around 5-6 across the Permian Basin,
extending into portions of Southeast New Mexico along with the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. Due to widespread critical fire
weather conditions expected, have issued a fairly expansive Fire
Weather Watch for late Wednesday morning until Wednesday evening
for all zones except along the Rio Grande. After the passage of
the shortwave and cold front late Wednesday, temperatures cool,
winds lighten, and less dry conditions will lower fire concerns
for the remainder of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               45  76  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 44  68  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   49  81  45  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            50  78  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           44  59  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    44  68  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    38  71  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     46  73  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   47  74  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     42  73  34  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...88

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
228 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-110830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
228 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023 /128 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

High winds are possible from Wednesday morning into Wednesday night
in the Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains. A High Wind Watch
is in effect.

Near critical and critical fire weather conditions are possible
Wednesday across all zones except along the Rio Grande. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland