Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
643 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

There are no major changes to the short term forecast with WV
imagery showing the upper ridge positioned over AZ, resulting in
northwesterly flow aloft for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
This will be increasing our mid-level moisture the next several
days while also opening up the ability for a cold front to push
through today. The front managed to switch winds more
northeasterly this morning, but there won't be a significant
impact to temperatures with only shallow cold air behind the
front. Still, decent MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg in response to
lingering CAA should prove sufficient for some thunderstorms this
afternoon across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos where the
front is currently stalled. With the aforementioned increase in
mid-level moisture, PW values will be >1.5" today and tomorrow,
indicating these storms may bring heavy rainfall which could lead
to flash flooding.

By late afternoon/early evening the upper ridge shifts further
west and an approaching shortwave brings increasing storm chances
to the Caprock/SE New Mexico with PWs approaching 1.75". The
shortwave will be the main factor for our widespread showers and
thunderstorms tonight and Monday, with on-and-off rain for the
next 36+ hours. Periods of heavy rain leading to localized
flooding will be possible, especially Monday afternoon into early
Tuesday morning, with QPF totals reaching up to 2 inches for some
spots partly due to slow storm motions. Given much of the heavier
rainfall is expected in the overnight hours Monday night,
nighttime flooding is a major concern which is especially deadly
since it can be difficult to identify. Always avoid traveling
through flooded roadways by finding another route, even if it
takes more time...it could save your life.

Regarding temperatures, highs today should still reach the 90s
for most as much of the precipitation will hold off until around
peak heating. Overnight lows look to fall to the 60s and low 70s
with the rain-cooled air, with those who missed out on the
precipitation today possibly a little bit warmer. For Monday,
widespread showers and thunderstorms, ample cloud cover, and
northeasterly surface flow will keep us much cooler than today,
with highs only reaching the 80s and possibly 90s for the River
Valleys. Given most of the CWA will see at least some rain on
Monday, lows Monday night could be a few degrees cooler region-
wide in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

By Tuesday rain will be ending across the Permian Basin with the
only remaining convection located west of the Pecos River.
Continued northeasterly surface flow will help slow the expected
warm up with highs holding near or below normal through Wednesday.
A return of low level southerly flow Thursday and a building upper
high to our north will send temperatures back into the upper 90s
to near 100 to end the week as well as end any chance for rain.
Models are showing run to run consistency depicting an upper low
getting cut off near the Texas Gulf Coast by Friday and slowly
moving it west under the building high pressure system over the
central Great Plains over the weekend. Models usually struggle
with these features so confidence is low in the late extended
forecast, but perhaps we will see at least some temperature relief
should the low reach West Texas and possibly even a return of
rain chances.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Thunderstorms ongoing at issuance may impact CNM, HOB, INK, and
PEQ early in the period, thus have included VCTS/TEMPO TS mention
at these terminals. While VFR conditions will prevail outside of
storms, brief reductions to MVFR visibility in heavy rain will be
possible if a storm directly impacts a terminal. Winds will be
somewhat variable given outflow boundaries, and in the vicinity of
storms, may become erratic and gusty. Winds will generally settle
to the east/northeast on Monday, with showers and thunderstorms
becoming more widespread overnight and through the day tomorrow.
Will continue to monitor and amend as needed this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  72  88  68 /  30  60  60  20
Carlsbad                 95  70  91  67 /  30  40  70  70
Dryden                   99  74  94  72 /  30  30  60  40
Fort Stockton            97  72  90  69 /  40  40  70  50
Guadalupe Pass           87  67  83  63 /  20  20  70  60
Hobbs                    92  68  84  66 /  50  60  70  60
Marfa                    89  62  87  61 /  40  10  70  40
Midland Intl Airport     97  73  87  69 /  30  60  70  40
Odessa                   97  74  87  71 /  40  60  70  40
Wink                     98  73  90  69 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-281915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
202 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 /102 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area through tonight.
The main hazards will be lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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