Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

164 
WGUS74 KMAF 250019
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
719 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

TXC243-250200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-230825T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-
719 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
FOR CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 719 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
         have ended.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Central Jeff Davis County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 10416 3092 10400 3073 10405 3068 10415
      3077 10421

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Samantha Zuber

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Temperatures have warmed back into the 90s this afternoon after a
brief break from the heat yesterday. Showers and thunderstorms are
developing across the higher terrain and will remain there through
the evening. Upper ridging has built back across the region and will
continue to expand into the weekend. This keep temperatures running
above normal Friday with maybe an isolated storm in the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Still looking at a respectable shot of showers and thunderstorms
Monday into Tuesday. Until then, however, expect conditions
typical of late August, with highs ranging from the upper 80s at
the higher elevations of the mountains to around 100 across the
eastern Permian Basin and lows in the 60s and 70s. There's an
isolated (> 20 percent) chance of diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains and adjacent lowlands Friday, and
maybe a better chance Saturday and Sunday, expanding north and
east into the Permian Basin.

Ensemble guidance and what cluster analyses we can get this
afternoon suggest that the upper level high will shift westward
this weekend as a series of short wave troughs dive southeastward
from the prairie provinces of Canada over the upper Midwest and
the Ohio Valley. These upper-level disturbances will serve to
drive a cold front south across the Panhandles and eventually to
the southern High Plains Monday and Tuesday. Insolation acting in
concert with moist upslope flow behind the front will be enough to
gin up scattered (30-50 percent coverage) to numerous (> 60
percent coverage) showers and thunderstorms areawide, with the
best chances for badly needed rains over the northwestern Permian
Basin Monday afternoon and evening. NBM probabilities of between a
quarter and a half inch of rain exceed 50 percent over this area,
with lesser amounts expected elsewhere. The front continues to
push south Tuesday while weakening, with the net result being a
shift in the chances of rain south and west, from the Guadalupe
Mountains down over the Big Bend and from there east to the lower
Trans Pecos. Temperatures will cool with the increased clouds and
chances of precipitation Monday and Tuesday, with some areas
barely touching 90F across the plains and in the 80s over the
mountains, with lows in the 60s and 70s. We start to dry out
Wednesday as conditions transition to quasi-zonal flow aloft and
thunderstorm chances confined to the mountains and adjacent
plains. Temperatures will start to climb back up toward normal or
a bit above normal Wednesday, with 90s for highs and 60s and 70s
for lows. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

VFR conditions are forecast for all area terminals through 25/18Z.
Gusty winds at KMAF will subside around sunset, but winds will
remain a touch elevated tonight as a modest low level jet develops
overhead. Isolated TSRA should develop over the mountains but is
not expected to impact KPEQ or KFST. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71 101  75 101 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 68  95  68  96 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                   70  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            67  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           68  88  68  89 /  20  20   0  10
Hobbs                    66  95  68  96 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                    59  90  60  91 /  10  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     70  99  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                   71  99  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                     69 100  72 100 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-251915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
201 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 /101 PM MDT Thu Aug 24 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland