Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Upper ridge extends from Mexico across SE NM and W TX to MN as a
trough extends from WA down the West Coast.  This trough will slowly
grow east Saturday cutting the ridge in half separating the portion
over the south plains from that over the Great Lakes.

High temperatures Saturday will be well below normal in the upper
70s to mid 80s as thick cloud cover and rain chances keep the heat
down.  Lows mainly in the 60s tonight and Saturday night.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and tonight as have good
moisture in place along with numerous boundaries... daytime
heating... good CAPE and a weak shortwave coming across.  However
did have storms this morning move across the NE counties that may
disrupt development. Do have an Enhanced Severe Wx risk today and
tonight extending from Ern NM down across Eddy and Lea Co to Pecos
Co. Potential for supercells with very large hail and a couple of
tornadoes this afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will be likely
again Saturday and Saturday night from the Davis Mountains southward
and at this time are not expected to be as strong.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Weak ridging barely holds on over West Texas and SE NM late this
weekend and into early next week. This will allow shortwaves to cut
across the region and keep up precipitation chances each day with
the higher chances focused more to the east over the western low
rolling hills and southeast Permian Basin. Any shower activity that
develops will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms given the time
of year.

With the upper level ridge not in full control, temperatures look to
remain below normal through the extended. The normal high at KMAF
for late May is around 91F, but as it stands we will have trouble
reaching that number this weekend and into the middle of next week.
Highs stay in the mid to nearly upper 80s. The normal hot spots,
like the Pecos River Valley, Big Bend, and Presidio Valley stay
warmer in the 90s each afternoon. Lows stay just below normal in the
low to mid 60s for most. Areas to the west end up slightly cooler in
the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

VFR prevailing currently. Sct/Bkn cu field with bases b/w 4-6k ft
AGL for all outside KCNM. Monitoring TS potential for all
terminals through 06z with KHOB/KMAF potential for early morning
convection pending evolution of storms over E NM through the
Caprock west of KLUB. Expecting low cigs to MVFR to develop after
06z for all with KMAF/KHOB seeing best chc of coverage followed by
KCNM/KINK. Elevated SE flow continuing through 05z before decay
<12kts after. AMD possible pending TSRA and onset of lower cigs
given timing and placement uncertainty in a chaotic environment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  79  62  79 /  30  50  40  60
Carlsbad                 63  83  61  87 /  30  40  30  40
Dryden                   68  85  66  82 /  20  30  40  70
Fort Stockton            65  81  62  83 /  30  50  40  70
Guadalupe Pass           61  79  60  80 /  30  40  40  40
Hobbs                    61  79  59  82 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                    55  80  53  78 /  80  70  60  70
Midland Intl Airport     64  79  63  81 /  30  40  40  50
Odessa                   66  80  63  81 /  40  40  40  50
Wink                     66  83  62  86 /  70  50  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-272045-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
345 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 /245 PM MDT Fri May 26 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a medium risk of severe storms across the western two-
thirds of the area today. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threats with an isolated tornado possible. A tornado watch is in
effect. Heavy rain will also pose a flash flood threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening,
mainly along and west of a Gail to Midland to Sanderson line. Any
severe storms that develop will be accompanied by large hail and/or
damaging winds. Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

TXZ277-262345-
Davis Mountains TX-
606 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Jeff
Davis County through 645 PM CDT...

At 606 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
McDonald Observatory, or 11 miles northwest of Fort Davis, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Davis, McDonald Observatory, Davis Mountains State Park, Black
Mountain, Indian Lodge and Fort Davis National Historical Site.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 10412 3070 10381 3070 10380 3069 10381
      3068 10379 3049 10390 3067 10417
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 308DEG 12KT 3067 10406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

93

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
644 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             MCDONALD OBSERVATORY    30.67N 104.02W
05/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       JEFF DAVIS         TX   PUBLIC

            1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL OBSERVED AT MCDONALD
            OBSERVATORY.

0633 PM     HAIL             2 N FLOWER GROVE        32.53N 101.89W
05/26/2023  M1.25 INCH       DAWSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
653 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             FORT DAVIS              30.59N 103.90W
05/26/2023  M1.75 INCH       JEFF DAVIS         TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

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