Tornado Warning 78, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
107 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night )
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Thru Sat night and into Sun morning, a complex severe weather
event is expected to unfold across portions of N/Wrn, Wrn, S/Wrn
and potentially Cntrl and Srn AR. Latest radar observations
indicated multiple severe thunderstorm bow echo complexes moving
across portions of Ern OK, S/Ern OK into Wrn AR, and Cntrl Srn OK
into S/Ern OK. Additionally, clusters of storms have developed and
begun some upscale growth across much of S/Wrn AR. Most of these
bow echoes of radar evidence of significant and damaging wind
gusts, w/ ground truth reports supporting significant warning
wording.

00Z CAM guidance up to this point in time has been performing
extremely well, w/ most of the current convective features well
located in space and time. So, putting some more significant
weight on the fcst based on model guidance, the evolution of these
storms is expected to remain complicated as the night progresses.

Ongoing bow echoes are expected to persist across N/Wrn, Wrn, and
S/Wrn portions of the FA thru Sun morning, w/ additional
development still evident behind the closer complexes. Local
mesoanalysis data indicates significant instability across Wrn AR
and the ARKLATEX, w/ a strong gradient oriented from N/W to S/E
over the lower Red River Valley. Most complexes along or south of
this gradient should propagate along this axis thru the overnight
hours.

Primary hazards thru the overnight hours wl primarily consist of
straight line damaging winds, and some instances of large hail.
QLCS tornadoes will also be a hazard given a primary storm mode of
linear complexes and bow echoes, though the risk is relatively
lower.

By Sun afternoon and thru the remainder of the PD, a more settled
wx pattern is fcst w/ PoPs tapering off and temps remaining near
normal values thru the early portion of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

The upper closed low will be east of the state at the start of the
long term period...with AR remaining on the west side of this upper
low for much of this week. This will keep most days dry next week as
a result...but some very isolated afternoon convection may still be
seen each day. This upper low may meander back towards AR late in
the forecast...which may bring some slightly increased POPs to the
forecast by Fri and/or Sat afternoons.

Temps look to start off near or just above normal for highs early in
the long term period...then as the upper low attempts to wobble back
west some...expect temps to cool slightly. Lows each day will remain
in the 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Not much change to advertise with 06Z TAFS... A complex fcst is
expected thru the PD. Recent composite radar imgry depicted
several TS complexes developing across S/Wrn and Wrn AR, w/
additional TS complexes expected to move into the FA from OK.

Multiple lines of TSRA are expected to move through the FA from W
to E, impacting Nrn, Cntrl, and Srn AR thru the overnight hrs into
daybreak on Sun. Have kept much of the prev fcst w/ regard to
timing of TS and category changes, w/ a mix of prevailing and
TEMPO groups based on confidence. MVFR VISBYS/CIGS wl lkly
accompany the strongest TS. Sig wind gusts may also be seen w/
these storms if they move over or near terminals... higher
confidence exists across Nrn and Wrn terminals, so have kept sig
VRB wind gusts accordingly, but introduced VRB gusts at most
terminals thru Sun morning. By late Sun morning, stronger TSRA
around the area should be moving into SErn AR, w/ condns improving
elsewhere in the state and BKN to OVC mid lvl clouds lingering
thru the day... some VCSH/TS may be possible in the wake of
stronger storms Sun morning/afternoon. Winds Sun afternoon wl bcm
Srly, and may be stronger/gusty at times.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  66  89  67 /  90  40   0   0
Camden AR         86  68  91  70 /  90  30   0  10
Harrison AR       78  64  87  65 /  90  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    85  67  92  69 /  90  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  86  70  92  72 /  90  20   0   0
Monticello AR     88  72  91  72 /  90  60  10  10
Mount Ida AR      84  65  92  68 /  90  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  79  65  87  65 /  90  20   0   0
Newport AR        83  68  88  69 /  90  40  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     86  69  91  70 /  90  40   0  10
Russellville AR   83  67  92  69 /  80  10   0   0
Searcy AR         85  68  91  69 /  90  30   0   0
Stuttgart AR      85  70  90  71 /  90  40   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
855 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-181000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
855 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to approach western
parts of the state shortly after midnight and continue to move
into Arkansas through Sunday morning. These storms will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will persist across the state from Sunday through
Sunday night before exiting to the east by Monday morning. As
these storms move eastward across the state they will be capable
of producing hail larger than golfballs, wind gusts to 80 mph and
possibly a tornado or two. Localized heavy rainfall could lead to
some flash flooding concerns in a few locations.

From Monday through Friday the threat of hazardous weather
appears low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

67/56

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

ARZ140-141-237-240-241-340-341-180530-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations AR-
Polk County Lower Elevations AR-Central and Southern Scott County AR-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations AR-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County AR-
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Scott, Polk and
northwestern Montgomery Counties through 1230 AM CDT...

At 1147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mountain Fork to near Polk County
Fairgrounds to near Cossatot River State Park. Movement was northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Waldron...
Mount Ida...                      Oden...
Beauchamp...                      Opal...
Mimosa...                         Cossatot River State Park...
Mountain Fork...                  Polk County Fairgrounds...
Mena Intermountain Airport...     Shady...
Hartley...                        Morgan Springs...
Caney Creek Wilderness...         Queen Wilhelmina State Park...
Mauldin...                        Bard Springs Recreation Area...
Acorn...                          Big Fork...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
western and central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 9445 3492 9431 3493 9426 3486 9371
      3475 9371 3474 9364 3458 9356 3435 9411
      3436 9423 3453 9436 3456 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 238DEG 35KT 3464 9450 3456 9431 3441 9420

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

46

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

ARZ042-052>055-062-141-341-180615-
Hot Spring AR-Pike AR-Grant AR-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations AR-Clark AR-Dallas AR-
Garland AR-Central and Eastern Montgomery County AR-
1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Clark, Pike,
northwestern Grant, northwestern Dallas, Garland, southeastern
Montgomery and Hot Spring Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1239 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Daisy State Park to near Arkadelphia. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Arkadelphia...
Malvern...                        Murfreesboro...
Glenwood...                       Gurdon...
Mountain Pine...                  Rockport...
Amity...                          Caddo Valley...
Tull...                           Prattsville...
Poyen...                          Perla...
Okolona...                        Daisy...
Lonsdale...                       Whelen Springs...
Beirne...                         Gum Springs in Clark County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
central, western and southwestern Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 9346 3455 9279 3450 9279 3447 9269
      3441 9268 3441 9262 3446 9259 3445 9241
      3447 9240 3447 9238 3378 9309 3382 9314
      3380 9318 3384 9329 3389 9330 3396 9337
      3396 9347 3394 9353 3401 9382 3419 9384
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 218DEG 30KT 3422 9372 3415 9312

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

72

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

ARZ121-122-130-138-221-222-230-238-180645-
Northwest Yell County AR-Pope County Higher Elevations AR-
Western and Northern Logan County AR-Yell Excluding Northwest AR-
Southern Pope County AR-Southern and Eastern Logan County AR-
Johnson County Higher Elevations AR-Southern Johnson County AR-
1257 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Logan, Johnson,
northwestern Yell and western Pope Counties through 145 AM CDT...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ozark to Hartman to near Magazine.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Clarksville...
Paris...                          Dardanelle...
Pottsville...                     Lamar...
Dover...                          London...
Magazine...                       Knoxville...
Subiaco...                        Hartman...
Scranton...                       Blue Mountain...
Lake Dardanelle State Park...     Devils Knob...
Hoyt...                           Midway in Logan County...
Mosley...                         Taral...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
western, central and north central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9381 3542 9381 3536 9375 3538 9371
      3576 9369 3575 9352 3573 9351 3573 9326
      3563 9305 3522 9307 3503 9381 3531 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 248DEG 40KT 3549 9390 3543 9361 3513 9384

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

46