Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Very unsettled weather continued from the overnight hours into the
morning hours across much of Arkansas. A few thunderstorms across
the state brought areas of strong winds, torrential rain, and large
hail. A brief lull in the action was seen during midday. 18z balloon
combined with the HRRR does suggest severe weather will be possible
again this afternoon and evening despite the overnight/morning
convection.  The 18z balloon does show the atmosphere has recovered
nicely with nearly 4000 J/kg of cape. The first round forecast for
this afternoon is expected across southern portions of the
state...generally the southern third. A second round will be
possible across more of central Arkansas after 00z...however recent
versions of the HRRR have become a little less bullish on the extent
of this development compared to runs earlier in the day.

Through the remainder of the short term, the nearly stationary front
that is in place over southern Arkansas will continue to meander
around the area. Current thinking has the front pushing south on
Thursday before stalling south of the Louisiana border. This may
bring Arkansas a brief break from precipitation chances on Thursday
during the daytime hours. However with NW flow aloft over the
region, the period of dry weather will be short lived as another
round of disturbances moves through the state late Thursday
night/early Friday morning. Severe weather chances will once again
be in the forecast with the main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

To begin the period, a frontal boundary will remained stalled across
the state Friday night into early Saturday bringing the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. As we move into Saturday night
and Sunday, another cold front is expected to move into the state
increasing the chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Severe weather chances will remain isolated with gusty winds and
hail the main hazards.

In regards to QPF amounts...it really just depends where storms
develop. However, through the period, QPF amounts up to inch will be
possible...although higher amounts will be for areas who see
multiple rounds of heavy rain. Many locations may only see up to
half and inch through the period. The heaviest and more widespread
rainfall is expected Saturday night into Sunday associated with a
stronger system moving into the area.

Warm temperatures and higher heat index values are expected through
the long term as the humidity returns to the state. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat
index values in the mid 90s to near 105 degrees possible. The
highest heat index values will be across portions of southern
Arkansas. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the mid
60s to mid 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Continued unsettled weather is in the forecast over the next 24
hours with showers and thunderstorms forecast to remain in the
forecast through at least this evening. Overnight some patchy fog
will be possible, with better chances across the northern
terminals. After 14z on Thursday VFR conditions should return to
all terminals through the end of the TAF forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  88  67  88 /  40  10  10  30
Camden AR         66  89  68  86 /  60  10  40  50
Harrison AR       61  86  65  86 /  30  10  20  40
Hot Springs AR    66  91  68  87 /  50  10  40  50
Little Rock   AR  69  90  71  90 /  50  10  30  50
Monticello AR     69  90  71  88 /  60  10  40  50
Mount Ida AR      64  90  65  87 /  50  10  40  50
Mountain Home AR  62  86  65  87 /  20  10  10  30
Newport AR        66  87  69  89 /  40  20  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     67  88  70  86 /  60  10  40  50
Russellville AR   65  89  68  87 /  50  10  30  50
Searcy AR         66  88  68  88 /  60  10  20  40
Stuttgart AR      69  88  71  87 /  60  10  30  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....233
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-152000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
247 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and evening. Some storms will be capable of producing damaging
winds and large hail, with the better chances across the southern
two thirds of the state. Although not the main threat, locally
heavy rainfall may also occur which may result in localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast, especially on Friday
and into the weekend. Some storms could be strong to severe, with
large hail and damaging winds the main concerns. Heavy downpours
may result in localized flash flooding.

Late in the weekend and early next week, high pressure will try to
build over the region from Texas. It will feel more like summer,
with above average temperatures expected. Heat index value will
likely top 100 degrees mainly from Little Rock southward.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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