Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
523 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night )
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

H500 ridging will persist to the S/W of the state today which will
continue to provide NW flow over the region. A cold front will be
making progress into the state from the north and is expected to
be near the AR/LA border by tonight. Ahead of this front,
warm/moist air will be present and heat headlines will be needed
across far southern parts of the state where temperatures will be
the warmest.

An early morning robust MCS across southern KS and northern OK is
expected to traverse the W/NW flow and move across the state from
later this morning into the afternoon hours. Instability will
increase ahead of the TS complex and additional strengthening is
expected this afternoon, particularly across eastern parts of the
state. Similar to activity ongoing across northern AR this
morning, some redevelopment of precip is possible across the state
again later tonight. Locally heavy rainfall could accompany a
damaging wind threat with some of the storms.

Behind the front, more pleasant air is expected to build into the
state tonight. Saturday morning low temperatures could make a run
at the upper 50s F across parts of northern AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Models remain in very good agreement through the extended period
with generally dry and very warm conditions expected. With models
remaining in good agreement, a blend of solutions is preferred,

Period initiates with a sprawling ridge of high pressure centered
over the Four Corners region with downstream troughing covering the
majority of the eastern CONUS.

This places Arkansas squarely in a north to northwest flow aloft. On
the surface, a front remains stalled out across southern Louisiana.
A weak wave will move the prevailing flow on Sunday with isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible over the northeast part of the
CWA. Other than this chance of precipitation, the remainder of the
forecast looks to be dry through Thursday.

Aforementioned north to northwest flow will bring a welcomed respite
from the very hot and humid conditions we have been experiencing of
late. The center of the ridge will wobble back to the east with time
and nudge back into the state late in the period with temperatures
rising well into the 90s once again. However, even with the air
temperature rising once again, dew point temperatures are expected
to stay in the 60s to lower 70s which will likely keep heat indices
below criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

TS complex approaching Tulsa, OK will provide the main focus for
RA/TSRA across the area today which could lead to deteriorating
flight conditions at times. Storms should be east of the area by
this afternoon with some additional precip across central and
southern AR terminals late tonight into early Saturday morning. A
cold front will sink south at the sake time which will provide
variable to nrly winds at times. Some localized BR/FG may develop
before sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  65  87  66 /  70  50  10   0
Camden AR         94  69  84  65 /  20  50  40  10
Harrison AR       79  60  85  64 /  80  30   0   0
Hot Springs AR    94  68  87  66 /  50  70  30   0
Little Rock   AR  91  70  87  69 /  70  70  20   0
Monticello AR     96  71  85  68 /  20  50  50  10
Mount Ida AR      94  66  86  64 /  50  60  30   0
Mountain Home AR  80  62  85  64 /  80  40   0   0
Newport AR        84  67  85  66 /  60  50  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  68  84  67 /  50  70  30   0
Russellville AR   87  67  88  66 /  80  60  10   0
Searcy AR         87  67  87  66 /  70  70  10   0
Stuttgart AR      89  69  85  68 /  60  70  30   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ065>069.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
303 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-221000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
303 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions are expected across the southern third
of the state, heat indices could exceed 105 in these areas.
Thunderstorms are expected to move across the state today and
tonight. Some storms could produce damaging wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Some storms could linger across southern parts of the state on
Saturday, but the overall severe weather threat appears low. Some
storms could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

67

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