Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
238 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Afternoon analysis depicts a quasi-stationary backdoor cold front
draped NW to SE across the state with a band of more persistent
convection focused near the boundary. Iso to sctd convection is
noted elsewhere given instability values >2000 J/kg over much of the
area. With negligible shear, storms will continue favoring the
synoptic front as well as any convectively-generated outflow
boundaries thru the remainder of today and into tonight. Sporadic
instances of severe or near-severe hail/wind remain possible but
widespread severe convection is unlikely.

The front is expected to shift SWwrd by Fri with the brunt of
convection similarly shifting SWwrd to encompass portions of
central/Wrn/SWrn AR. As with today, pulse type storms are expected
with iso stronger cells but no significant severe threat.

Temps today will remain a hair above average with slightly cooler
readings over NErn AR by Fri as somewhat drier air works in behind
the front. By Saturday, however, the mercury will again climb with
widespread 90s across the area during the afternoon and 60s/70s
overnight.

Late in the period, mid/upper ridging to our west will de-amplify as
a low-amplitude trough crosses the Red River Valley. This will
encourage the aforementioned front to lift back NEwrd with a
moist/unstable air mass overspreading the area again. A modest
increase in synoptic forcing for ascent in tandem with the crossing
frontal boundary suggests more widespread convective coverage Sat
and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The long-term forecast period will begin actively with an upper
level SWT working in tandem with a lifting warm front across
Arkansas. The placement of this warm front will be critical because
along and south of the warm front as it traverses from south to
north across the Natural State during the day on Sunday providing a
corridor for unusually moist and warm air for this time of the year
across a portion of the state. An opportunity will present itself on
Sunday for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along and south
of this boundary. All severe modes will be possible.

Upper lvl ridging will move over Arkansas on Monday and bringing
most likely overall rain-free conditions with tranquil weather for
the CWA. Slightly cooler temperatures will be noted with the FROPA
on Sunday night.

The remainder of the week (Tuesday thru next Thursday) looks to
return to a pattern conducive for rain and thunderstorm chances with
another SWT approaching the state on Tuesday. At the sfc, another
warm front will lift through the state presenting another potential
setup for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially as a cold front
will swing across the state from west to east and aid in the
production of lift as a robust upper lvl jet axis in the 80-90 knot
range will be pronounced over the state from Wednesday into Thursday
with an approaching digging trof axis providing more potential for
unsettled weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Seeing sctd TSRA developing across Nrn/Wrn sections with activity
expected to spread SEwrd thru evening into tonight. Highest
confidence in terminal impacts resides over Nrn/central terminals
where periods of MVFR to IFR conds are possible. Convection will
end NW to SE by Fri morning with lifting/scattering cigs thru the
end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  84  63  86 /  30  30   0  40
Camden AR         66  89  67  89 /  20  40  20  60
Harrison AR       62  80  63  84 /  40  30  20  60
Hot Springs AR    65  90  66  91 /  30  40  20  60
Little Rock   AR  69  89  69  91 /  40  30  10  50
Monticello AR     68  90  68  92 /  30  30  10  50
Mount Ida AR      63  89  64  89 /  30  50  20  60
Mountain Home AR  61  81  63  84 /  40  30  10  50
Newport AR        65  84  65  87 /  30  20   0  30
Pine Bluff AR     68  89  68  90 /  30  30  10  50
Russellville AR   65  87  66  89 /  50  40  10  60
Searcy AR         65  86  64  88 /  40  30  10  40
Stuttgart AR      68  87  68  89 /  40  20  10  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....234
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
348 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-091000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
348 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across a good portion of
Arkansas today. A few of the these storms may produce small hail
and brief gusty winds this afternoon. Overall, organized severe
weather is not expected today or tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible today through Sunday
night across Arkansas. These storms will pose a threat for strong to
damaging winds and cloud to ground lightning. There will be an
increased chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

70/51

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