Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1115 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Guess you could say this aftn is 'the quiet before the next storm'
for much of AR. The front that brought convection to much of the FA
on Thu, was situated near the AR/LA brdr region at mid aftn. North
of the bndry, breezy E/NE winds were keeping temps in the 50s.
Meanwhile, along and to the south, sfc temps/dewpoints were in the
lower and mid 60s.

Focus wl be on the likelihood of severe wx acrs much of the area
tngt. A compact mid-lvl low is progged to move out of Srn NM,
then turn NEwd and eventually track acrs AR later tngt and early
Fri. An assocd sfc low is progged to intensify acrs Nrn TX this
aftn and track acrs NW AR thru Fri mrng. In response, the
aforementioned fntl bndry wl also lift back to the N as a warm
fnt. Just how far N the warmer/unstable airmass makes into the FA
rmns the big question, with most model solutions leaning towards
the I-40 corridor.

Sctd to numerous showers/storms are fcst to dvlp along and north of
the sfc bndry, especially by early evening. Large hail and heavy
rainfall wl be the primary concern with this activity. The focus wl
then turn to convection that forms in the warm sector, as well as
along and ahead of the new CDFNT. This activity wl poses the
greatest concern for all modes of svr wx, esp tornadoes, large hail
and damaging winds. Any discrete cells that manage to from in the
warm sector, wl have the greatest potential for long track tornadoes.

A line of storms wl accompany the CDFNT later this evening and durg
the overnight hrs. Due of the strength of the sfc low, wind fields
wl be quite conducive for a significant damaging wind threat, along
with fast developing tornadoes embedded with the line of storms.

Windy conds wl dvlp as the sfc low apchs AR tngt, as well as on Fri
as the system departs of the region to the NE. Being that the sfc
low center wl be tracking acrs the FA, have opted to stick with the
going Wind Advy and not upgrade to a High Wind Warning at this time.
Rain chcs wl diminish fm the SW late tngt and Fri mrng. Clouds wl be
slower to dcrs as cyclonic flow gradually relaxes Fri aftn and drier
air advects into the FA.

High pres wl return to the region for the start of the weekend.
Still wl have to consider Frost/Freeze headlines, esp where temps
drop into the lower to mid 30s. With the contd threat of svr wx thru
tngt, wl hold off on any of these headlines for the time
being.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Surface wind direction will begin to shift more out of the south
Sunday as a surface high center shifts farther into eastern portions
of the U.S. Through the early part of next week, a storm system will
move Eward across the north side of the surface high (across the NE
U.S.), with a cold front stretched WSWward into the central and
southern Plains, pushing south. The high will weaken and deflect
SSEward during this time. High temps Sun-Mon will be in the 60s/70s
Sun, in the 70s/80s Mon, with lows in the lower to mid 50s.

A surface cold front will move south across the state late Monday.
We'll see a northerly wind shift across northern portions of the
state late Monday night. The front will shift southward, not quite
making it to the southern AR border before stalling out, then
continuing to shift south of the state through the mid-week period.

NNEerly flow will persist from late Tues through the end of the
period. Temps will gradually fall through the period. By the middle
of next week high temps will top out in the lower 50s to lower 60s,
with low temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Expect flight conds throughout the period to be overwhelmingly MVFR
to IFR from lowered CIGS associated w/ showers and thunderstorms
making their way across the state from west to east. Brief
transitions to LIFR are possible in the strongest thunderstorm cells
across all terminals. Across all sites, anticipate variable high
winds and wind gusts at the surface in excess of near 50 knots at
times associated w/ approaching thunderstorm cells through 03/16Z.
Wind shear will also be present across all terminals until Friday
morning. Later Friday afternoon, expect CIGS to slowly lift to MVFR
and VFR conds across the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     47  57  38  63 / 100  80   0   0
Camden AR         54  62  43  67 /  90  60   0   0
Harrison AR       43  49  35  62 / 100  90   0   0
Hot Springs AR    50  58  37  64 / 100  90   0   0
Little Rock   AR  50  61  39  64 / 100  80   0   0
Monticello AR     58  66  45  66 /  70  60   0   0
Mount Ida AR      48  56  35  64 / 100  90   0   0
Mountain Home AR  43  53  34  63 / 100  90   0   0
Newport AR        49  57  38  62 / 100  90   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     56  65  41  64 /  90  70   0   0
Russellville AR   48  57  35  63 / 100  90   0   0
Searcy AR         50  60  39  63 / 100  80   0   0
Stuttgart AR      57  64  40  63 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>064-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...234

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
308 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-031100-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
308 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible this
morning across southeast sections of the area. Some large hail
and gusty winds will be possible...along with an isolated flash
flood threat.

A more significant severe weather episode will develop later this
afternoon into the overnight hours as a very potent storm system
moves across the region. All modes of severe weather will be
possible...including tornadoes...damaging winds...and large hail.
Flash flooding will also remain a threat due to several inches of
rainfall expected.

Outside the threat for severe weather...there will also be windy
conditions develop late tonight. Expect southwest winds of 25 to
35 mph...with gusts of 40 to over 50 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Most of the severe weather threat will have ended by sunrise
Friday. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will remain
across northern sections of the state...with some flash flooding
potential continuing.

The windy conditions will also persist into the afternoon hours
on Friday before the winds weaken Friday night. Some areas may see
temperatures get to near or below freezing Friday night into
Saturday morning across northern Arkansas. Beyond Saturday
morning...the threat for hazardous weather will become low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed through tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1133 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

ARZ016-024-025-033-030600-
White AR-Independence AR-Jackson AR-Cleburne AR-
1133 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Independence, southwestern Jackson, southeastern Cleburne and
northwestern White Counties through MIDNIGHT CST...

At 1133 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pangburn, or 9 miles southeast of Heber Springs, moving northeast at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Batesville...                     Newark...
Pangburn...                       Pleasant Plains...
Oil Trough...                     Magness...
Moorefield...                     Salado...
Steprock...                       Southside in Independence Count...
Sulphur Rock...                   Letona...
Albion...                         Hickory Flat...
Wilburn...                        Thida...
Dewey...                          Heffington...
Huff...                           Sidon...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 9191 3545 9202 3582 9156 3553 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 239DEG 48KT 3542 9189

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

56

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