Wind Advisory 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
409 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

A thinning of the high level cloud cover has allowed winds just off
the deck to quickly mix to the surface across eastern New Mexico
into the western South Plains. This trend will continue eastward for
the next few hours as this brief thinning moves overhead.

Although a series of short waves will have already passed by this
evening, strong winds aloft and at the surface will remain through
Monday. Flow through the atmospheric column will become zonal this
evening after the final short wave passes late this afternoon.
However, the only reprieve in wind speeds will be at and below
700mb. Surface winds will remain breezy overnight tonight keeping
temperatures from falling too much behind a pacific cold front early
Monday morning.

Monday will see much less thick cloud cover and thus a greater
potential for deeper boundary layer mixing. However, as previously
mentioned, winds from 700mb and below will generally be lighter than
seen on Sunday. Model soundings indicate a potential to mix to
around 750-700mb on Monday afternoon. But winds at the top of this
layer max out around 35-40kt which is significantly less than
today's 50+kt winds at that level. Also, some thinner high level
cloud cover is expected on Monday which may have a small impact on
potential mixing. The surface low and pacific front will sweep east
early in the day but additional surface lee cyclogenesis will again
develop in southeastern Colorado in the afternoon. Nonetheless,
surface winds between 20-25kt are expected area wide on Monday
afternoon. The pacific cold front and strong downsloping winds will
offset each other tomorrow resulting in cooler temperatures than
today, but still some 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Large-scale forcing for ascent will gradually overspread the CWA on
Tuesday which will result in a high-level overcast as a plume of
modified Pacific moisture advects northeastward ahead of an
amplifying shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest. Cyclogenesis
of a weak surface low will occur near the Raton Mesa in response to
the geopotential height falls while surface flow backs to the
southwest with wind speeds at around 15-25 mph area-wide. Despite
the thickening cirrus deck, the southwesterly fetch will facilitate
efficient boundary-layer mixing, resulting in temperatures climbing
into the lower-middle 60s across the Caprock and the upper 60s
across the Rolling Plains. High temperatures for Tuesday were
therefore nudged upward to align with statistical guidance. Low PoPs
have been kept intact for Tuesday night into Wednesday; however, the
now-in-range mesoscale guidance indicates what has been thought over
the previous assessments with a small, spatiotemporal window for
precipitation due to the progressiveness of the ejecting shortwave
trough as it becomes neutrally-tilted in addition to the magnitude
of the synoptic-scale forcing. As the occlusion process begins with
the respective cyclones, a high-level jet streak near 140 kt will
translate over the CWA early Wednesday as the leading vorticity lobe
rotates northward into the OK/TX PH. This should cause the bands of
precipitation to evacuate quickly to the north and east as the dry
slot noses in behind, with plain rain showers forecast due to the
expectation that wet-bulb temperatures will remain above freezing
after the CWA becomes precipitation-free. Though, snow flurries
and/or liquid sprinkles will be possible on the backside of the
precipitation shield across the northwestern zones prior to sunrise
Wednesday.

The cold front associated with the neutrally-tilting trough will
move through the entire CWA by the mid-morning hours Wednesday, with
westerly winds accelerating to 20-30 mph with locally higher gusts
in its wake. Increasing sun angle will moderate the magnitude of
cold theta-e advection post-FROPA, and high temperatures for
Wednesday afternoon were adjusted to align with statistical guidance
as well, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s near the TX/NM
state line; the lower-middle 50s along the I-27/HWY-87 corridor; and
into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Rolling Plains. Patchy
blowing dust will be possible as well during the afternoon hours. A
shortwave ridge will translate quickly over the CWA on Thursday
ahead of the next amplifying shortwave trough over the southern
Great Basin, with surface winds backing to the south by the
afternoon hours area-wide. Strengthening WAA will foster a warm day
across the CWA on Friday, with a cold front forecast to move through
the region from the north heading into Saturday morning. There
exists discrepancies among global NWP guidance with whether or not a
closed low develops or if the trough remains open, which will
dictate how progressive the system is. Low PoPs have therefore been
maintained area-wide with cold temperatures to start next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Surface winds out of the southwest are expected to quickly
increase early this afternoon at all TAF sites with a strong storm
system approaching the region. Light visby restrictions from BLDU
are possible at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon with the strong
winds. Surface winds will undergo a decrease this evening but will
remain in the 15-20kt range overnight and turn more to the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Critical fire weather conditions will continue for the next several
hours as strong winds blow out of the southwest. These winds will
keep temperatures well above seasonal averages overnight tonight
with poor relative humidity recoveries.

Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected on Monday with
strong winds continuing. A cold front will move through the region
early Monday morning shifting winds to the west area wide.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than today from this front.
Afternoon relative humidity values will range from around 20 percent
in the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle to 30 percent in the
southwestern South Plains. Therefore, forecast RFTI values will be
around 2-3 area wide. ERC values remain near the 80th percentile and
when combined with the expected winds, will still lead to elevated
fire weather conditions.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday as an
upper level low moves east out of Colorado leading to increasing low-
level wind speeds. Clear skies and mild temperatures will allow
mixing heights to rise close to 700 mb and transport stronger winds
to the surface generating 20 foot westerly winds of about 20 knots
areawide with stronger gusts. Minimum RH values are currently
forecast to be around 20-25% across the area. Temperatures will be
on the cool side with highs in the 50s on the Caprock and highs
closer to 60 degrees off the Caprock, keeping the risk of widespread
fire potential low. Despite a slight chance of rain showers on
Tuesday night, fuels are expected to remain dry with forecast ERC
values generally in the 70-80 percentile range with the highest
values off the Caprock. Current model guidance indicates that fire
potential will be greatest in the Rolling Plains where temperatures
are warmer, RH values as low as the teens, and ERC values closer to
the 80 percentile. Fire weather concerns will be lower the rest of
the week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>037-
039>042.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024-
027>029-033>035-39
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
FIRE WX...01/17

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
224 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

TXZ021>044-162030-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
224 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM for all of the South
Plains area except Kent, Stonewall, and King counties. The
combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and high fire
danger will lead to critical fire weather conditions. A wind
advisory is in effect for the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle
and western South Plains for winds in excess of 30 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast to develop across the
Caprock and Rolling Plains on Monday and Wednesday afternoons.

Another upper-level disturbance is forecast to move over the
southern Great Plains by the end of this week and into next weekend.
Light rain showers and/or wintry mix will be possible across the
Caprock and Rolling Plains late Friday night into Saturday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
113 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S LEVELLAND           33.53N 102.36W
01/15/2023  M58 MPH          HOCKLEY            TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2300030

JAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
149 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW ANTON             33.73N 102.19W
01/15/2023  M59 MPH          HOCKLEY            TX   MESONET

            ALSO GUSTED TO 58 MPH AT 135 PM. WEST TEXAS MESONET

0135 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S LEVELLAND           33.55N 102.36W
01/15/2023  M62 MPH          HOCKLEY            TX   AWOS

            LEVELLAND MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2300031
EVENT NUMBER LUB2300032

JAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNE LUBBOCK           33.67N 101.82W
01/15/2023  M60 MPH          LUBBOCK            TX   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2300033

GKENDRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE SILVERTON         34.45N 101.19W
01/15/2023  M59 MPH          BRISCOE            TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2300034

GKENDRICK