Wind Advisory 16, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

A dryline continues to make gradual progress eastward from eastern
New Mexico into the South Plains and southern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon. Cloud cover E-ESE of the dryline has held temperatures
back somewhat, but where clouds eventually clear, especially on the
Caprock, should see quick spikes into the upper 70s by late this
afternoon. Breezy WSW surface winds will ease after sunset but
remain relatively elevated overnight as a strong trough associated
with a potent upper low tracks east out of Wyoming into Nebraska
overnight. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for much of our area
beginning at 9am tomorrow morning until 6pm tomorrow evening. The
timing of the upper trough tomorrow morning with the onset of
diurnal mixing has a window from mid morning tomorrow through mid-
afternoon with the strongest winds gusting up to 60 MPH. Areas of
blowing dust may also restrict visibility at times. High
temperatures tomorrow will moderate back to around 70 on the
Caprock as cooler mid-level air associated with the strong system
to the north settles over the region. Please see the FWF
discussion below regarding Fire Weather concerns for tomorrow and
the remainder of the extended forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

The strong winds will diminish Friday night as the upper jet departs
as the closed low moves east into The Great Lakes area. Saturday the
forecast area heads into some brief zonal flow aloft with light
south winds returning at the surface and warm temperatures in the
70s. Warm air advection will continue into the weekend with a return
of southwesterly flow aloft. Sunday, a weak shortwave aloft will
pass over the forecast area with lee troughing developing through
the day. A weak dryline will be present along the I-27 corridor and
move eastward through the day. Thus, with weak lift aloft and meager
low level moisture (dewpoints in the lower 50s) across the far
eastern Rolling Plains, there is a potentially for a shower and/or
thunderstorm to develop. However, the potential remains low with the
best chances farther east. Behind the dryline, dry air will fill in
across the forecast area and combined with breezy winds will give
way to elevated to critical fire weather concerns. By Monday, the
next trough axis will dig into California. The dryline will keep to
our east with dry, warm, and breezy conditions keeping the critical
fire weather concerns persisting. Tuesday, the system aloft will
strengthen into a closed low but the timing is very slightly off
between models. Overall, a strong jet axis is progged to cross the
Texas Panhandle Tuesday with windy conditions for the forecast area
as strong lee cyclogenesis develops. Warm temperatures will persist
off the Caprock, but temperatures may be slightly cooler (lower 70s)
along the High Plains as the Pacific Front moves through the region.
Depending on the speed of the system early next week, Wednesday
could end up breezy with critical fire weather concerns continue.
The alternative would be the upper system moves through quicker and
weak surface ridging develops with light winds, which would
help to dampen the fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

All TAF sites will experience strong winds late morning into the
early evening. These winds will also bring blowing dust to the
region. While conditions are expected to remain VFR, there are
times where dust could lower VIS to MVFR. Winds will begin to
decrease around sunset, at which time VFR conditions will prevail
through the rest of the night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for tomorrow across our
entire area from 9AM through 10PM along with the High Wind Watch
also beginning at 9AM tomorrow, ending at 6 PM. Critical to
Extremely Critical fire weather concerns will be in place tomorrow
due to strong sustained surface westerlies between 30-35 MPH and
gusts up to 60 MPH, with single digit RH values.

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected tomorrow,
through the weekend and into early next week due to very dry,
warm and breezy to windy conditions. ERCs are forecast to continue
rising towards the 80th to 90th percentile through next week.
Nearly widespread minimum relative humidity values in the upper
single digits through the extended with breezy to windy conditions
will give way to several days of critical fire weather
conditions. Tuesday, looks to be critical to potentially extremely
critical due to the windiest conditions with likely a wind
headline being needed.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
afternoon for TXZ021>038.

&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1006 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

TXZ021>044-010315-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1006 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of the South Plains,
Rolling Plains, and southern Texas Panhandle on Friday from 9 AM to
10 PM for critical fire weather conditions.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for the southern Texas Panhandle
and the South and Rolling Plains on Friday from 10 AM to 6 PM for
sustained winds of 30-40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Saturday
through Tuesday as conditions will remain extremely dry, winds
breezy, and as fuels continue to dry with low chances of
precipitation.

A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning and afternoon across
the far eastern Rolling Plains. The threat for severe weather
remains low.