Wind Advisory 13, NWS Lubbock, TX

495 
WWUS74 KLUB 112353
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
553 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-120100-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-230312T0100Z/
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-Cochran-
Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-
Including the cities of Friona, Bovina, Farwell, Dimmitt, Hart, 
Tulia, Happy, Silverton, Quitaque, Muleshoe, Littlefield, 
Amherst, Olton, Plainview, Hale Center, Floydada, Lockney, 
Morton, Whiteface, Levelland, Sundown, Lubbock, Wolfforth, 
Slaton, Ralls, and Crosbyton
553 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished below advisory criteria.

$$

Sincavage

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1042 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

An upper low will transition across the northern CONUS this
afternoon, while a near 70 knot 500mb jet axis in the nearly zonal
flow aloft approaches West Texas. In return, a weak disturbance
aloft over the Rockies will help to develop surface troughing this
evening and overnight. The low level jet will increase during the
overnight hours with 850mb winds around 40 to 50 knots. Therefore,
breezy southwest winds are expected late tonight into tomorrow
morning. With breezy winds and some mid to high cloud cover,
temperatures tonight are expected to remain mild and well above
normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Tomorrow, the lee low will slide eastward with a secondary increase
in the 850mb winds up to 40 knots possible. Daytime heating and
mixing will give way to breezy to windy conditions across the
forecast area with the higher wind speeds more confined to the High
Plains through the afternoon hours. Wind Advisory winds are possible
mostly across the western extent of the far southwest Texas
Panhandle and northern South Plains with forecast west winds of 25
to 35 mph and gusts up to 45 to 50 mph possible. Temperatures are
expected to warm quite nicely through the day tomorrow with breezy
downsloping west winds. Areas off the Caprock will warm into the mid
to upper 80s, while along the higher plains temperatures will remain
slightly cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Towards sunset, the
winds will begin to diminish as the cold front quickly approaches
the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

A cold front will push through the Texas Panhandle Saturday evening
and overnight leading to cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday.
There is a chance of rain Sunday night and early Monday morning as
large scale lift increases in response to a 250 mb jet streak moving
east across the Texas Panhandle but a relatively dry atmospheric
column will keep rain amounts light. GFS guidance indicates a weak
500 mb shortwave trough will move over West Texas on Tuesday leading
to another a slight chance of rain showers across the forecast area.
However, ECMWF shows a much more subtle shortwave and consequently
lower chances of precipitation. Upper level shortwave ridging will
then takeover on Wednesday leading to warming temperatures and lower
chances of precipitation. A more powerful upper level trough is
expected to approach the region on Thursday leading to another shot
of precipitation as large scale lift and moisture increases, but
long term guidance differs substantially in the strength and track
of the upper level trough. This troughing is expected to drive a
cold front south through the forecast area on Thursday but timing is
uncertain and will again depend on the track and speed of the
upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

VFR is likely through the TAF period, however, periods of blowing
dust may impact visbys on Saturday afternoon. Strong winds will
pick up out of the west by late morning which may create visby
restrictions with blowing dust at KLBB and KPVW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Breezy west winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph are
possible tomorrow afternoon across much of the far Southern Texas
Panhandle, South Plains and northern Rolling Plains. Warm
temperatures in the 70s to 80s and dry conditions will give way to
minimum relative humidity values between 15 to 20 percent. With ERC
values in the 60th to 70th percentile, near critical to critical
fire weather conditions are possible across much of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. RFTIs are around 4 with a some spotty 5s,
but these are heavily driven by the breezy winds as the lowest
relative humidity values are farther east off the Caprock. A Fire
Weather Watch remains in effect for tomorrow afternoon and early
evening across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
222 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

TXZ021>044-112030-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
222 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle due to strong
west winds with warm and dry conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in
effect for tomorrow afternoon across the South Plains and southwest
Texas Panhandle.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.