Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

As mentioned in the previous forecast, a conditional chance for the
bimodal timing of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail, strong winds gusts, tornadoes and periods of
heavy rainfall continues from as early as late this afternoon into
the evening hours along and east of a dryline, followed by the more
likely and widespread development during the overnight hours
associated with improved lift from a potent upper level low
currently moving south from western Utah towards the Four Corners
region.

For later this afternoon and evening, a dryline appears to be
setting up along or just east of the I27 corridor as of 3PM. Further
west, a CU field on the southeast portion of lee side surface
pressure falls extends a secondary drier-line from Deaf Smith County
SSW into central Lea County in NM. CI along the drier-line to the
west in our area is highly conditional on overcoming a weak low
level inversion and depth of boundary layer moisture, which is
unimpressive attm. The dryline currently over the I27 corridor may
mix a little farther east and then begin to retreat westward by late
afternoon enhancing surface moisture convergence along the surface
low migrating south along the NM/TX state line this evening into the
overnight hours. Short term CAMS signal the possibility for CI in
our northwest zones as early as 7PM with the potential for discrete
supercells moving east and south through the evening hours into the
South Plains and Rolling Plains. Storms would initially be
elevated but would be slow moving and have the ability to
ultimately become surface based, especially as we approach sunset
and a modest LLJ of around 30kt begins to develop with confluent
flow around the surface pressure falls.

The second round of convection late tonight into early Wednesday
will take advantage of moisture advection filling in to the east of
the retreating dryline this evening. Strong lift associated with the
advancing upper low from the Four Corners region into northern NM
overnight will produce a larger more organized convective complex
shifting south and east out of eastern NM and the Texas Panhandle.
Our areas in the southern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling
Plains appear to be most likely impacted by the second round of
storms as strong divergence aloft collocates with an improving low
level jet and surface moisture convergence. As surface pressure
and wind fields respond to the upper low tracking from northeast
NM into the Texas Panhandle after sunrise tomorrow morning, there
is a chance of heavy rainfall associated with the surface low
moving east, and currently progged to position over the northern
Rolling Plains, more specifically in the Childress area by mid
morning tomorrow. The potential for severe storms over the Rolling
Plains by late morning tomorrow into the early afternoon will
ultimately depend on how the overnight storms evolve and how the
boundary layer atmosphere is able to recover. Attm, the SPC does
have the far eastern Rolling Plains highlighted in an Enhanced
Risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

By Wednesday night a surface cold front should surge south through
the forecast area. The 500 mb low should continue to trek to the
east southeast across the northern Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma. Appears that this will be the location most favored for
precipitation continuing Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Due to the uncertainty with regard to the exact track still though
have maintained PoP mentions across the far southern Texas
Panhandle into the Rolling Plains during this time frame.
Northwest flow aloft will setup over the region for Thursday as
surface high pressure moves across. This will allow skies to clear
and despite being behind the cold front plenty of insolation will
allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Another upper-level disturbance will quickly drop south into the
central Rockies Thursday night and into the Four Corners region by
Friday morning. This will shift another surface low east across
the forecast area and bring a stronger cold front into the area.
The speed of this front will have a big role in high temperatures
for the day with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 50s
across the southwest Texas Panhandle to the mid 70s across the
southern Rolling Plains and remaining steady or decreasing as we
go through the afternoon. However, would not be surprised if this
front tends a bit faster and these temperatures would have to be
lowered. The other impact will be strong northerly winds that move
in behind the front with sustained wind speeds near 30 mph with
gusts up to 45 mph. Wind speeds will diminish from north to south
through the afternoon and into the evening hours on Friday. As the
core of the low moves across the forecast area Friday evening
into Saturday morning a few showers may be possible but overall
rain amounts will be light due to limited moisture. Upper-level
ridging will begin to build into the forecast area on Sunday and
remain in place through the middle of next week. This will keep
our area dry with temperatures rebounding back into the low to mid
80s. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Convection will be the biggest issue with TAFs this evening at all
terminals and possible through tomorrow afternoon at CDS.
Convection will be scattered across the region with confidence on
timing and location being low. If a thunderstorm does affect a
terminal, CIGs and/or VIS could drop down to MVFR and possible IFR
in stronger storms. Strong winds up to 50 knots and golfball size
hail will also be possible. Conditions are expected to be VFR
outside of any convection.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
247 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

TXZ021>044-262000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
247 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail up to golf ball size,
locally heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60 MPH, and isolated tornadoes
are possible this afternoon and overnight, mainly in the far
southern Texas Panhandle, northern South Plains, and the northern
Rolling Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across most of
the region. Some thunderstorms may become severe on Wednesday
afternoon, especially over the Rolling Plains. Large hail to quarter
size will be possible.

Sustained north winds may exceed 30 mph across the entire area on
Friday behind a strong cold front.

Elevated fire weather conditions may return to portions of the
region Friday through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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