High Wind Warning 3, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
536 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

The next upper low that will result in winds across the South Plains
area is spinning over the Four Corners region, the center of the 500
mb circulation being centered just north of the Grand Canyon. This
low will move to the far western Oklahoma Panhandle and the
southeastern corner of Colorado around 00Z this evening and then to
northeastern Kansas by sunrise Thursday. Increasing mid-level height
gradient points to the upcoming wind increase with the magnitude of
the 700 mb height gradient suggesting a solid wind advisory day for
most of the forecast area. Favorable mixing of the 55-65 kt mid-
level jet streak to the surface suggests some high wind gusts (i.e.,
>58 mph) will be possible. However, this mid-level streak is progged
to be quite narrow as it crosses the forecast area, which would tend
to narrow the window in both time and space for said high wind
gusts. Meanwhile, a cold front is moving southward through the
Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning, generally in line with the
HRRR, the model which is most aggressive in moving this cold front
to near a Tulia to Guthrie line by noon. The deep mixing associated
with the eastward moving mid/upper low should eventually scour out
the cool air to the north of the front, but it does put into
question whether the eastern column of counties in the inherited
Wind Advisory will make criteria. By the same token, the discussion
of the potential for high wind associated with mid-level jet streak
above led to the consideration of upgrading mainly the southwestern
quadrant of the forecast area to a High Wind Warning. In both cases,
confidence is just not quite enough to force any change to the
current structure of the advisory. The Canadian cold front that
makes a brief appearance across the northeastern forecast area this
morning will make a much more pronounced return this evening behind
the ejecting upper low. Much colder air behind it combined with
breezy to windy conditions will make for a raw end to the night with
wind chill values possibly dropping below zero late tonight across
the northwestern quadrant of the forecast area, although likely
remaining above advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Cold air advection will be in full swing early Thursday morning
ahead of high pressure slated to arrive Thursday night. Raw north
winds early Thursday morning still look to push wind chills close to
our advisory levels (-5F) over a few of our NW zones. Despite full
sun, highs Thursday will struggle to break out of the 30s northwest
and 40s elsewhere. Even colder lows await Thursday night as the
surface high settles atop the region, but progressive ridging on
Friday will shove this chilly high toward E TX while bringing milder
SW breezes to the South Plains.

This weekend is looking stellar under dry and uneventful SW flow
behind Friday's upper ridge. Milder thicknesses each day along with
breezy downslope flow look to push highs 10-15 degrees above normal,
with potentially greater gains by Monday provided a cold front
stalls short of the region. This front is tied to a broad upper
trough eventually occupying the northern CONUS by early next week.
However, the details of this upper trough, its associated cold
front(s), and a cut-off low approaching the Baja are too murky this
many days out to justify any meaningful changes to the NBM output.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Southwest winds to ramp up at KPVW and KLBB late morning but will
hold off at KCDS until later in the day. A weak cold front is
likely to move south of KCDS for a brief period later this
morning, but this cool air mass will eventually be eroded
northward by the stronger southwest winds mixing to the surface
from mid-levels. A stronger cold front this evening will bring a
switch to northwest winds at the terminals shortly after sunset.
VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception
of some MVFR visibilities this afternoon at KLBB and KPVW due to
blowing dust.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Solidly windy again today, although winds are not expected to be
as strong as yesterday. Yesterday will have dried fine fuels from
the limited moisture they received from the previous night's
rains. Still, ERC values are running just over the 50th percentile
while RFTI values of 3 to 4 areawide are only made up of the wind
component for all areas but the southern Rolling Plains where RH
does make a contribution. An arguement could be made for a Red
Flag Warning, but given recent history with a lack of wind events
in recent weeks, will lean toward a fire danger statement this
morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
315 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

TXZ021>044-160915-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
315 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM today for all of
the South Plains area except for areas from Childress to Aspermont
for southwest to west winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.