Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Sunshine was back in full force today on top of continued moist SE
winds. Visible satellite captured a well-defined outflow boundary
draped from Palo Duro Canyon southeast to Paducah in the wake of an
MCS chugging across southwest Oklahoma. This boundary and its
breezy upslope flow is serving to maximize moisture convergence
just north of Amarillo as shown by the steady uptick in agitated Cu
as of 130 PM. This area of building Cu becomes increasingly capped
farther southwest ahead of a surface trough that curls south into
eastern New Mexico. However, with continued insolation and CIN
becoming more negligible we should see at least isolated storms
develop later this afternoon across NM before spreading slowly east
within only 10-20 knots of westerly flow from H7 to H5,
respectively. MLCAPE is sufficient for some severe events with a
likely uptick in storm coverage this evening as a shortwave trough
(currently over central New Mexico) passes through. CAMs generally
favor the southern South Plains for a multicell line, with
some potential for an MCS to drop southeast from the eastern TX
Panhandle tonight and graze our far NE zones. NBM's PoPs were
tailored to this signal as it seems the most plausible for now.

Precip should quickly end from NW-SE late tonight in the wake of the
shortwave progged to dig southeast ahead of an amplifying upper
ridge for Memorial Day. This ridge will make for perfect grilling
weather thanks to much warmer highs in the mid-to-upper 80s with
little cloud cover. Feel the NBM is a touch too warm given all the
recent and widespread rainfall, so its highs were nudged down a
bit.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Upper ridging will continue moving overhead tomorrow night into
Tuesday. This upper ridge will keep the weather on the quiet side
through at least Wednesday afternoon. The ridge will also allow
highs to reach into the mid 80s to low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
The upper ridge will be kicked eastward by Wednesday
afternoon/evening as an upper low makes its way from northern
California to the Four Corners. The upper low will gain a negative
tilt as it approaches the Four Corners which will chance upper
diffluence as well as provide decent shear for an increased severe
potential. Models are in decent agreement with developing dryline
convection each afternoon/evening Wednesday through at least Friday.
The upper low is progged to become removed from the main upper flow
by Saturday resulting in fairly weak upper flow. Models then hint a
the possibility of a weak backdoor cold front by late Saturday that
should provide enough lift for general thunderstorm development.
Plenty of moisture will still be available and would reintroduce the
chance for heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Less TS coverage today. Each terminal is likely to stay dry with
cluster of storms sern NM expected to stay SW of KLBB and
isolated storms NE of KPVW unlikely to move much. May also see
some patchy stratus or fog overnight, but again coverage should be
limited. Will continue with an optimistic TAF set this evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

TXZ021>044-291645-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1140 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop once again this afternoon
across eastern New Mexico and move into portions of the South Plains
this evening. Additional storms may spread south from the eastern
Texas Panhandle tonight. Any of these storms could produce heavy
rain and localized flooding, with a few storms becoming severe. Hail
to quarter size and damaging winds to 70 mph will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and persist
into the evening and overnight hours from Wednesday through Friday.
Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Heavy
rainfall may also result in localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible later today.

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