Severe Thunderstorm Warning 369, NWS St. Louis, MO

120 
WWUS53 KLSX 240158
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
858 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

MOC019-240208-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0369.000000T0000Z-230924T0230Z/
Boone MO-
858 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened. Therefore, the 
warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3859 9262 3869 9262 3868 9236 3867 9229
      3864 9225 3849 9226 3834 9231 3834 9241
      3843 9241 3843 9262 3846 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 297DEG 14KT 3884 9247 3854 9248 3829 9255 

$$

MOC051-135-240230-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0369.000000T0000Z-230924T0230Z/
Cole MO-Moniteau MO-
858 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN COLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MONITEAU COUNTIES...

At 858 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Jamestown to near Russellville to near Eldon,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Russellville, Centertown, St. Martins, Hickory Hill and Jefferson 
  City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9262 3869 9262 3868 9236 3867 9229
      3864 9225 3849 9226 3834 9231 3834 9241
      3843 9241 3843 9262 3846 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 297DEG 14KT 3884 9247 3854 9248 3829 9255 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MRB

107 
WWUS53 KLSX 240218
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
918 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

MOC051-135-240228-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0369.000000T0000Z-230924T0230Z/
Cole MO-Moniteau MO-
918 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN COLE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONITEAU COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3859 9262 3869 9262 3868 9236 3867 9229
      3864 9225 3849 9226 3834 9231 3834 9241
      3843 9241 3843 9262 3846 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 284DEG 19KT 3882 9236 3852 9237 3827 9244 

$$

MRB

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
658 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Key Messages:

1.) Thunderstorms are expected to reach central MO late this
afternoon. Some storms could be strong to severe in central MO
this afternoon/evening. However, the probability of severe
weather is low.

2.) Thunderstorm redevelopment is possible on Sunday. However,
severe weather is not expected.

3.)  Confidence is increasing that above average temps will prevail
next week along with largely dry conditions.

Thunderstorms developed early this morning to the west of the
area on the nose of a low level jet in far western MO. This
activity has continued and slowly drifted east through the rest of
the morning and into the early afternoon hours, with a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch posted to our west in western MO. The recent
set of hi-res models continue to promote the idea that the current
storms will drift east and dissipate while storms redevelop in
the mid to late afternoon hours further west near the KS/MO
border. The current forecast grids reflect this thinking with
storms slowly becoming more likely in our western zones across
central MO as the evening hours approach.

Instability drops off considerably today as you go from west to
east across MO. MUCAPEs drop from 1000-3000 J/kg in western MO to
around 1000 J/kg in central MO and to near zero in eastern MO
based on the latest mesoanalysis. This gradient will hold through
the evening, resulting in dying storms as they push east. Still,
severe storms will be possible in the western zones across central
MO this afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds
being the primary threats.

A few showers with embedded thunderstorms will be possible
tomorrow morning before surface-based redevelopment occurs
tomorrow. Severe storms are not expected tomorrow given the weak
shear (~20 kts) and limited instability (500-1000 J/kg).
Generally have 20-40 percent chance of precip tomorrow afternoon
and evening with this activity.

Knutsvig

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The extended forecast looks warm and dry with northwest flow
expected due to an upper low to the north over IA/northern IL and
moving into the Great Lakes region late in the week. Highs are
expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows around 60.
There are a couple of periods with 20 percent chances of precip as
the upper low brushes by to the north around mid week. Limited
precipitation would be expected if this becomes realized.

Knutsvig

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Thunderstorms over western Missouri are expected to move east and
affect UIN, COU, and JEF between 01-05Z. Any thunderstorms will be
capable of producing MVFR, possible IFR ceilings and visibilities
in brief heavy rain. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will
continue at these sites before waning overnight with another
chance for showers and thunderstorms at all of the terminals on
Sunday. Winds will remain 10 knots or less through the period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
Issued by National Weather Service Lincoln IL
110 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ036-051-052-059>065-
072>075-084-085-099-241815-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Pike MO-
Montgomery MO-Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-
Franklin MO-Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-
Crawford MO-Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
110 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Illinois,
southwest Illinois, west central Illinois, east central Missouri,
northeast Missouri and southeast Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening into overnight,
especially in central and northeastern Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night across
portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MOZ018-019-026-027-034-035-041-042-047>050-241815-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-
110 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Missouri and
northeast Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and this evening
across parts of central MO. Some storms may be strong to severe with
damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night across
portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Knutsvig