Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS St. Louis, MO

173 
WWUS53 KLSX 171251
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
751 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

MOC055-093-221-171301-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0281.000000T0000Z-230717T1315Z/
Crawford MO-Iron MO-Washington MO-
751 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...NORTH
CENTRAL IRON AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3789 9131 3798 9121 3779 9078 3763 9097
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 306DEG 29KT 3784 9108 

$$

MRM

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
640 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

1) The initial concern is the west-to-east oriented, broken line
of convection lined up south of the I-70 corridor. Localized flood
potential will result from heavy rainfall. Isolated wind gusts
and hail are possible, most of which remain below severe limits.

2) Additional scattered thunderstorms development is possible this
afternoon with get best potential over southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois.

IR satellite shows a mass of convective cloud cover that extends
from central Missouri eastward through sections of southwest
Illinois. Radar imagery shows a broken line of convection that
developed quite rapidly since 05z this morning. Initially
development supported updrafts that with 50-60 dBz reflectivity
briefly reaching near 30k feet before weakening.

SPC hourly mesoanalysis shows the activity has aligned just north
of a MUCAPE gradient with values generally between 2500-3000 J/kg.
This is within a region of deep moisture convergence at the front
end of a modest 30 kt westerly mid-level jet that lines up over a
narrow corridor of west-to-east oriented surface convergence. The
surface to mid-level environment has further been supported by
mid/upper ascent as a shortwave moves overhead. While initial
updraft were pushing 50-60 dBz into the -20 to -30C layer, much of
it has been elevated enough to curb any real threat of large
hail. Given DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, gusts around 40 knots has
been observed with some of the strongest cells as the cores
dropped. PWATs of 1.5-2.0 inches, the orientation of the line and
training over some areas has been a greater concern with 1-3
inches (very localized 4 inches) being estimated by radar. A
report of more than 2 inches (Rosebud, MO) and rapid rises on
smaller streams has validated the estimates.

The shortwave is projected to cross the southern CWA through about
12z this morning, along with a slow southward push to the line in
the latest radar trends. Until then, localized heavy rain and
nuisance flooding will be the main concern. Thereafter, we will
likely see a downward trend in thunderstorm activity. By mid-
afternoon, hi-res guidance shows surface destabilization by means
of 3000+ J/Kg of SBCAPE. Fortunately, better support sinks south
of the CWA along west/east oriented upper trough. Though CAPE
values are certainly supportive, weaker shear (20-25 knots) and
modest mid-level lapse rates (around 7C) may produce a strong
storm with small hail and gusty winds. Marginally severe hail and
wind gusts cannot be ruled out but will likely remain localized.

The potential MCS that we've been watching the last couple of
days looks to take shape over the Plains later tonight with most
of the HREF CAMs keeping the core of the system over western
sections of Missouri. While there is some question to its eastward
extent, it will likely be in its weakening phase Tuesday morning
as it has any chance to impact the forecast area.

Maples

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

The primary focus will be on the potential for an organized round
of convection with severe potential Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night.

Long range guidance has consistently advertised an eastward shift
in the upper level pattern over the last few days. This would
shift the active MCS track to the east from where is has been and
consequently places it somewhere within the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Most of the available medium to long range guidance
points around 00z and after Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. As
the shortwave rounds the ridge, MUCAPE values of around 3000 J/kg
arc around the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge with the
gradient situated over northern Missouri and running down the
Mississippi River from east-central Missouri southward. Meanwhile,
the core of the low level jet strengthens to 40-50 knots over
southern sections of Missouri with the nose of the jet aimed at
the CWA, all within a broad area of deep moisture with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low-70s. This should set the stage
for development late Tuesday generally along the Mississippi
River, where strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.

Beyond Tuesday night, the remainder of the week continues to look
active. However, confidence is low on the exact timing or
placement of thunderstorms potential through the period. The upper
ridge begins to shift back westward as the eastern extent
flattens. This results in more of a west-to-east track to the
upper level disturbances. Meanwhile, the Tuesday night system
could shunt a surface boundary to the south as surface high
pressure over the central Plains northerly surface flow underneath
northwest flow aloft. While there additional thunderstorm chances
scattered through the remainder of the week, much of it is going
to hinge on the position of any remnant surface boundaries, which
at this point of favoring southern section of Missouri and
Illinois. It is possible that northern sections of the forecast
area see a lot of dry time in the period with cooler than normal
temperatures.

Maples

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Although the TAFs are mostly dry and VFR through their periods,
there is the chance for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon at the
St. Louis metropolitan terminals. These terminals are on the
northern periphery of the area where thunderstorms are expected
today, so confidence is too low in impacts at these sites to include
thunder in the TAFs at this issuance. This will continue to be
monitored and amended as needed.

Otherwise, smoke from the Canadian wildfires is expected to remain
in the northern forecast area today, impacting KUIN. Maintained
reduced visibilities into this afternoon to account for haze.

Jaja

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
408 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-180915-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
408 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy rain is possible from central into southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois early this morning. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms area expected this afternoon. A thunderstorm or two
could be strong but the threat for severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are expected over parts of the area Tuesday through
Friday. Thunderstorms late Tuesday evening and Tuesday night could be
strong to severe with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall.

There are additional chances of thunderstorms over parts of the area
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Maples

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
241 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     Rain             5 NW Gerald             38.45N 91.38W
07/17/2023  M2.40 inch       Gasconade          MO   CO-OP Observer

            Fell in the past two hours.

&&

MAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
250 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     Flash Flood      2 SW Mehlville          38.48N 90.34W
07/17/2023                   St. Louis          MO   Official NWS Obs

            Mattesse Creek rose above FS, which is 11
            feet. Currently at 11.80 feet and still
            rising.

&&

MAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     Flash Flood      Drake                   38.46N 91.47W
07/17/2023                   Gasconade          MO   911 Call Center

            Central dispatch reported that parts of Hwy
            50 were covered in water earlier this
            morning, particularly around the junction of
            Hwy 50 and Hwy 19. Time estimated by radar.

&&

Maples