Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS St. Louis, MO

307 
WWUS53 KLSX 020551
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1251 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

MOC099-020600-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0229.000000T0000Z-230702T0600Z/
Jefferson MO-
1251 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3880 9012 3877 9017 3872 9021 3871 9021
      3866 9018 3863 9018 3859 9019 3857 9023
      3852 9026 3842 9014 3840 9013 3837 9027
      3881 9043 3888 9018 3885 9011 3883 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 256DEG 43KT 3880 9019 3842 9010 

$$

ILC133-MOC183-189-510-020600-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0229.000000T0000Z-230702T0600Z/
Monroe IL-St. Louis City MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis MO-
1251 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MONROE...EAST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES AND EASTERN ST.
LOUIS COUNTIES AND ST. LOUIS CITY...

At 1250 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Spanish Lake to near Millstadt, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
St. Louis, Florissant, University City, Hazelwood, Webster Groves,
Ferguson, Overland, Clayton, Cahokia, Jennings, St. Ann, Bridgeton,
Bellefontaine Neighbors, Columbia, Berkeley, Richmond Heights, Ladue,
Brentwood, Maplewood, and Olivette.

This also includes Scott Joplin Historic Site and Confluence State
Park.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 9012 3877 9017 3872 9021 3871 9021
      3866 9018 3863 9018 3859 9019 3857 9023
      3852 9026 3842 9014 3840 9013 3837 9027
      3881 9043 3888 9018 3885 9011 3883 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 256DEG 43KT 3880 9019 3842 9010 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KD

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
653 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Last nights thunderstorms that went over northern and central
Missouri and central Illinois produced an outflow boundary that at
16Z was located across southeast Missouri and the far southern
portions of Illinois. The outflow boundary has since dissipated,
allowing 75+ dew points to surge north along the Mississippi River,
keeping hot and humid conditions today along and south of the I-70
corridor.

Clouds this morning covered much of the CWA and limited late morning
destabilization. However, clearing has allowed for the atmosphere to
quickly destabilize. Along the clearing boundary, there is a surface-
based CAPE gradient with values in excess of 3000 J/kg, 40kts of 0-
6km bulk shear, and CIN quickly diminishing. An 18:30Z ACARS
sounding at STL are showing surface based CAPE values nearing 3000
J/kg.

To the west of us, ahead of a shortwave trough there is an area of
increased vorticity advection along with an area of surface
convergence that is traversing eastward. As this moves eastward, the
area of surface convergence will interact with the instability and
strong 0-6km bulk shear and will be more than enough to support
strong and severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. The
main threats will be strong and damaging winds and large hail,
however a few brief tornados cannot be ruled out. The location of
the strong to severe thunderstorms will be along and south of the I-
70 corridor, including the St. Louis Metropolitan area where a
CAPE gradient is located. Because of this increased chance for
severe thunderstorms, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
until 9PM this evening.

Overnight tonight, the shortwave trough and an upper low will make
its way into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This will help
finally push a surface low pressure system and its associated cold
front through the area by the overnight hours. With sufficient lift
from the cold front and increased upward vertical motion, there is
another chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow
morning. Instability overnight will be greatest in the southern
portions of the CWA with guidance indicating over 1500 J/kg. With
this instability and decent mid-level lapse rates, thunderstorms
will have the potential to become strong to severe.

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be out of the area by
Sunday afternoon, leaving dry and cooler temperatures to close out
the holiday weekend.

MMG/Carney

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Briefly, in the medium range...Monday continues to look like it will
have the least chance for precip out of the next 7 days. Short wave
ridging builds over the Midwest ahead of another upstream short wave
trough, and this should suppress convection across our forecast
area.  The aforementioned trough drifts east across the Mid
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and though there isn't any obvious
surface boundary/trigger, there will probably be enough lift to
produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Currently,
CAPE/shear values are such that any storms that form will likely not
be particularly strong/organized, but they could certainly rain on a
few Independence Day Parades.  Deterministic guidance is now showing
a stronger/more robust short wave trough moving through the Midwest
Wednesday/Thursday which forces a stronger and better defined cold
front through our area during that time frame.  However LREF cluster
analysis still shows variance in timing and amplitude of the trough,
and while the Wednesday/Thursday period still looks most likely for
rain/thunderstorms confidence remains somewhat low on exactly when
the rain will occur, and how strong storms will be/how much rain
will fall.  PoPs fall off to chance/slight chance behind the front
on Friday/Saturday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening as
an upper level system moves from the Great Plains into Missouri. A
few storms may be capable of producing large hail and gusty winds,
though the storms this evening will likely not be a strong as
storms earlier today. The system will also bring an area of MVFR
ceilings down across much of the area late tonight into early
Sunday morning. There is potential for IFR ceilings, primarily
across northeast Missouri into west central Illinois, but
confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Carney

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     71  87  71  92 /  30  20   0  10
Quincy          68  83  66  89 /  50  40   5  10
Columbia        67  86  68  92 /  50  10   0  10
Jefferson City  68  89  68  94 /  50  10   0  10
Salem           70  85  66  90 /  70  40   5  10
Farmington      68  89  65  92 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
300 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-022000-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
300 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the late evening and
again overnight. Storms have the potential to be severe with strong
and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and hail in excess of 1 inch
in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible in a few areas through midday Sunday.
Chances for thunderstorms will return Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

MMG/Carney

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
833 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Bremen             37.95N 89.77W
07/01/2023                   Randolph           IL   Public

            Via Twitter with pictures included: Roof of
            Marys River Covered Bridge heavily damaged.

&&

LSJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
850 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Madison                 38.68N 90.16W
07/01/2023                   Madison            IL   Public

            Via Twitter with pictures included: Roof
            damage to Madison Meat Market.

&&

LSJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
900 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Madison           38.69N 90.16W
07/01/2023                   Madison            IL   Public

            Via Twitter with picture included: medium to
            large tree uprooted and laying in street.

&&

LSJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1124 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SSE Hannibal          39.69N 91.37W
07/01/2023                   Marion             MO   Law Enforcement

            *** 1 FATAL ***
            A 20 to 24 inch diameter tree fell onto a
            camper resulting in a fatality. This
            occurred on Montana Street on the south side
            of Hannibal.

&&

MAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1136 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     Hail             3 SSW New Haven         38.57N 91.24W
07/01/2023  M1.50 inch       Franklin           MO   Trained Spotter

&&

MAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1151 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Dutzow              38.59N 91.00W
07/01/2023  M59 MPH          Warren             MO   AWOS

            At Washington Memorial Airport, 51kts wind
            gust.

&&

MAB