Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2023
River Flood Warning 22, NWS St. Louis, MO
NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Mar 23, 2023, 12:24 PM CDT for Fayette County, Illinois. It took effect at Mar 24, 2023, 11:20 AM CDT. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 23, 2023, 12:24 PM CDT (17:24 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 24, 2023, 11:20 AM CDT
- Expired
- Mar 28, 2023, 7:57 AM CDT
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS St. Louis, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Fayette County, IL
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Kaskaskia River at Vandalia (VNDI2). The gauge peaked at 23.92 ft at Mar 26, 2023, 8:00 AM CDT.
- Action stage
- 16 ft
- Minor stage
- 18 ft
- Moderate stage
- 24 ft
- Major stage
- 26 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05592500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
083
WGUS43 KLSX 231724
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...The National Weather Service in St Louis MO has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted, while lesser rainfall could yield lower
crests. The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-250530-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0022.230324T1950Z-230329T2320Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1950Z.230326T1200Z.230328T1720Z.NO/
1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...From Friday afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 22.0 feet Sunday
morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday
afternoon.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 11.1 16.2 20.8 22.0 21.6 18.8
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
Fuchs13 follow-up statements
632
WGUS83 KLSX 240138
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...Illinois...
Meramec River near Sullivan.
Meramec River near Steelville.
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
Meramec River near Eureka.
Meramec River at Pacific.
Meramec River at Valley Park.
Meramec River at Fenton.
Meramec River near Arnold.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC055-221-251345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0012.230324T1556Z-230329T0712Z/
/SLLM7.2.ER.230324T1556Z.230326T0000Z.230328T0112Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Sullivan.
* WHEN...From Friday morning to early Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Near this height, Missouri Route W will be
closed in both directions beyond Route JJ.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 4.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late tomorrow morning to a crest of 22.6 feet Saturday
evening. It will then fall below flood stage Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Sullivan 11.0 4.4 18.0 18.3 12.3 8.7 7.2
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9120 3806 9125 3829 9109 3840 9090
3837 9082
$$
MOC055-251345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0013.230324T1940Z-230328T0518Z/
/SEEM7.1.ER.230324T1940Z.230325T1800Z.230326T2317Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Steelville.
* WHEN...From Friday afternoon to early Tuesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 16.9 feet, Near this height, Missouri State Route O
will be closed in both directions.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 2.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 17.7 feet early
Saturday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
Sunday evening.
- Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 2.4 15.2 13.3 7.9 5.3 4.2
&&
LAT...LON 3793 9152 3800 9152 3806 9125 3801 9121
$$
ILC051-251345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0022.230324T1950Z-230329T2320Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1950Z.230326T1200Z.230328T1720Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...From Friday afternoon to Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 22.0 feet Sunday
morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday
afternoon.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 11.1 18.4 21.4 22.0 19.9 15.0
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
MOC099-189-251345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0014.230325T2112Z-000000T0000Z/
/ERKM7.2.ER.230325T2112Z.230327T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Eureka.
* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 29.7 feet, Near this height, the large pavilion floor
and gazebo along Williams Road at Kircher Park in Eureka begin
flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 4.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Saturday afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 30.3
feet early Monday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 4.4 15.2 20.9 26.1 23.8 16.7
&&
LAT...LON 3845 9065 3855 9063 3855 9056 3850 9056
$$
MOC071-099-251345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0015.230326T0300Z-230330T1007Z/
/PCFM7.1.ER.230326T0300Z.230327T1800Z.230329T0406Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Pacific.
* WHEN...From Saturday evening to early Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Jefferson Street extension is flooded and
closed. Dogpound at the east end of East Congress Street begins
to flood.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 0.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late Saturday evening to a crest of 22.0 feet early Monday
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Tuesday
evening.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 0.3 9.5 15.7 19.8 17.6 10.7
&&
LAT...LON 3838 9085 3840 9090 3848 9080 3849 9064
3845 9065
$$
MOC099-189-251345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0016.230326T0624Z-000000T0000Z/
/VLLM7.2.ER.230326T0624Z.230328T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Valley Park.
* WHEN...From late Saturday night until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 26.0 feet, Near this height, Smizer Mill Road and
Meramec Station Road begin flooding near their intersection.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was -0.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Sunday morning and continue rising to a crest of 26.1
feet Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Valley Park 18.0 -0.4 11.3 17.4 21.9 21.6 16.9
&&
LAT...LON 3853 9056 3855 9056 3857 9043 3854 9043
$$
MOC099-189-251345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0017.230326T1549Z-000000T0000Z/
/FNNM7.1.ER.230326T1549Z.230328T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Fenton.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 25.4 feet, Water begins backing onto Water Street at
the riverside drain at the Ferry Street intersection.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:15 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 3.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late Sunday morning and continue rising to a crest of 27.9
feet early Tuesday morning.
- Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Fenton 23.0 3.9 13.4 20.6 24.5 25.2 22.9
&&
LAT...LON 3854 9045 3854 9042 3848 9039 3848 9045
$$
MOC099-189-251345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0018.230327T0228Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.230327T0228Z.230328T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Arnold.
* WHEN...From Sunday evening until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, Wells Road below Suson Woods begins
flooding at this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 8.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late Sunday evening and continue rising to a crest of 30.2
feet Tuesday morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Arnold 24.0 8.9 12.7 18.6 24.5 27.5 25.0
&&
LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
3845 9043
$$
MRM494
WGUS83 KLSX 240203
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Meramec River near Sullivan.
Meramec River near Steelville.
Big River at Byrnesville.
Bourbeuse River at Union.
Meramec River near Eureka.
Meramec River at Pacific.
Meramec River at Valley Park.
Meramec River at Fenton.
Meramec River near Arnold.
Black River near Annapolis.
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC055-221-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0012.230324T2111Z-230329T0036Z/
/SLLM7.1.ER.230324T2111Z.230326T0000Z.230327T1836Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Sullivan.
* WHEN...From Friday afternoon to Tuesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 18.5 feet, Near this height, Missouri Route N will be
closed in both directions.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 4.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 19.9 feet Saturday evening.
It will then fall below flood stage early Monday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Sullivan 11.0 4.3 18.0 18.3 12.3 8.7 7.2
&&
LAT...LON 3800 9120 3806 9125 3829 9109 3840 9090
3837 9082
$$
MOC055-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0013.230325T0104Z-230328T0000Z/
/SEEM7.1.ER.230325T0104Z.230325T1800Z.230326T1800Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO MONDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Steelville.
* WHEN...From Friday evening to Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Near this height, roads to the Lucky
Clover campgrounds begin to flood.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 2.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
tomorrow evening to a crest of 15.5 feet early Saturday
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Sunday
afternoon.
- Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 2.4 15.2 13.3 7.9 5.3 4.2
&&
LAT...LON 3793 9152 3800 9152 3806 9125 3801 9121
$$
MOC099-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0020.230325T0404Z-230328T1727Z/
/BYRM7.2.ER.230325T0404Z.230326T1200Z.230327T1727Z.UU/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Big River at Byrnesville.
* WHEN...From Friday evening to early Tuesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 22.4 feet, At this level, Twin Rivers Bridge Road
must be closed.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:45 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 4.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late tomorrow evening to a crest of 22.5 feet Sunday morning.
It will then fall below flood stage early Monday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 4.1 18.2 22.5 18.0 10.6 8.1
&&
LAT...LON 3834 9060 3833 9068 3846 9063 3849 9057
$$
ILC051-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.230325T1009Z-230330T0313Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230325T1009Z.230327T0600Z.230328T2113Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...From late Friday night to late Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 19.2 feet, State Highway J just east of County Road
206 begins to flood near this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 12.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Saturday morning to a crest of 22.0 feet early Monday
morning. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday
afternoon.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 12.4 18.4 21.4 22.0 19.9 15.0
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
MOC071-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0019.230326T0121Z-230329T0217Z/
/UNNM7.1.ER.230326T0121Z.230327T0000Z.230327T2017Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO LATE TUESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Bourbeuse River at Union.
* WHEN...From Saturday evening to late Tuesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 19.8 feet, Near this height, Missouri State Route UU
is closed in both directions.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 2.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Saturday evening to a crest of 19.5 feet Sunday evening. It
will then fall below flood stage Monday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 2.9 10.4 18.2 17.7 9.4 5.4
&&
LAT...LON 3826 9123 3832 9133 3838 9137 3848 9094
3842 9087
$$
MOC099-189-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0014.230326T0504Z-230330T1200Z/
/ERKM7.2.ER.230326T0504Z.230327T1800Z.230329T0600Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Eureka.
* WHEN...From late Saturday night to Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 25.5 feet, Hornecker Road is closed near this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 4.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Sunday morning to a crest of 26.3 feet early Monday
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early
Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 4.4 15.2 20.9 26.1 23.8 16.7
&&
LAT...LON 3845 9065 3855 9063 3855 9056 3850 9056
$$
MOC071-099-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0015.230326T0912Z-230330T0352Z/
/PCFM7.1.ER.230326T0912Z.230327T1800Z.230328T2152Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Pacific.
* WHEN...From late Saturday night to late Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 19.4 feet, Private road under the Highway F bridge
becomes flooded at this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 0.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Sunday morning to a crest of 20.0 feet early Monday
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday
afternoon.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 0.3 9.5 15.7 19.8 17.6 10.7
&&
LAT...LON 3838 9085 3840 9090 3848 9080 3849 9064
3845 9065
$$
MOC099-189-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0016.230326T1446Z-230330T1407Z/
/VLLM7.2.ER.230326T1446Z.230328T0000Z.230329T0807Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Valley Park.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning to late Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 21.9 feet, Yarnell Road is closed at Riverside
Drive. Larkin Williams is closed at Riverside Golf Club
entrance. In Valley Park...Tree Court Industrial Road begins
flooding between Marshall Road and Scarlet Oak Boulevard. Also...
the golf course at Family Golf and Learning Center and the
Kirkwood Athletic Association ball fields begin flooding near this
height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was -0.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late Sunday morning to a crest of 22.5 feet Monday evening.
It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Valley Park 18.0 -0.4 11.3 17.4 21.9 21.6 16.9
&&
LAT...LON 3853 9056 3855 9056 3857 9043 3854 9043
$$
MOC099-189-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0017.230327T0040Z-230330T1720Z/
/FNNM7.1.ER.230327T0040Z.230328T0600Z.230329T1120Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Fenton.
* WHEN...From Sunday evening to early Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 25.4 feet, Water begins backing onto Water Street at
the riverside drain at the Ferry Street intersection.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 3.8 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Sunday evening to a crest of 25.5 feet early Tuesday morning.
It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Fenton 23.0 3.8 13.4 20.6 24.5 25.2 22.9
&&
LAT...LON 3854 9045 3854 9042 3848 9039 3848 9045
$$
MOC099-189-251415-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0018.230327T1000Z-230330T2327Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.230327T1000Z.230328T1200Z.230329T1727Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Arnold.
* WHEN...From late Sunday night to Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 27.0 feet, Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and
Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 9.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Monday morning to a crest of 27.5 feet Tuesday morning.
It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday
afternoon.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Meramec River
Arnold 24.0 9.0 12.7 18.6 24.5 27.5 25.0
&&
LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
3845 9043
$$
MOC179-251415-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0021.230324T1227Z-230328T0600Z/
/ANNM7.2.ER.230324T1227Z.230325T0600Z.230327T0000Z.NO/
903 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Black River near Annapolis.
* WHEN...From Friday morning to early Tuesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Flooding begins along County Road 146
Champion Springs Road... the road leading to the gage.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 4.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
tomorrow morning to a crest of 16.5 feet early Saturday
morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday evening.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Black River
Annapolis 8.0 4.9 16.0 9.0 7.4 6.6 MSG
&&
LAT...LON 3743 9087 3745 9078 3724 9074 3724 9079
$$
MRM804
WGUS83 KLSX 241031
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
531 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-252245-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0022.230325T1009Z-230330T0313Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230325T1009Z.230327T0600Z.230328T2113Z.NO/
531 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...From late tonight to late Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 19.2 feet, State Highway J just east of County Road
206 begins to flood near this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 12.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late tonight to a crest of 22.0 feet early Monday morning. It
will then fall below flood stage Tuesday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 12.4 21.5 22.2 21.9 19.5 15.7
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
KD193
WGUS83 KLSX 241620
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1120 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the Kaskaskia River in Illinois...
at Vandalia
at Carlyle.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-260430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.230324T1620Z-230330T0148Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1200Z.230328T1948Z.NO/
1120 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...From this morning to Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 AM CDT Friday the stage was 17.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late this morning to a crest of 23.0 feet Sunday morning. It
will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 17.9 22.1 23.0 22.4 19.3 15.5
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-260430-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.230323T2330Z.230327T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1120 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, Cabins on the left bank below the gage
begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 AM CDT Friday the stage was 17.5 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 11:00 AM CDT Friday was 17.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 21.2 feet early
Monday afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 17.5 17.6 18.7 20.2 21.2 21.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
Fuchs202
WGUS83 KLSX 250244
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
944 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-261445-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230329T1736Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1200Z.230328T1136Z.NO/
944 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...Until early Wednesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 19.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 9:30 PM CDT Friday was 19.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.3
feet Sunday morning. It will then fall below flood stage
Tuesday morning.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 19.4 23.3 22.2 17.9 13.3 12.0
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-261445-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.230323T2330Z.230327T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, Cabins on the left bank below the gage
begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 17.7 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 9:30 PM CDT Friday was 17.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 21.2 feet early
Monday afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 17.7 18.7 20.2 21.2 21.2 21.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
Jaja191
WGUS83 KLSX 251542
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1042 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-270345-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230329T1336Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1200Z.230328T0736Z.NO/
1042 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...Until Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 21.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 10:30 AM CDT Saturday was 21.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.3
feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
early Tuesday morning.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 21.1 23.3 21.7 16.9 13.0 11.9
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-270345-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.230323T2330Z.230327T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1042 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, Cabins on the left bank below the gage
begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 17.9 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 10:30 AM CDT Saturday was 17.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 21.2 feet early
Monday afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 17.9 18.7 20.2 21.2 21.2 21.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
Maples461
WGUS83 KLSX 260120
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
820 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-271330-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230329T1115Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1200Z.230328T0515Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...Until Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 23.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:00 PM CDT Saturday was 23.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.6
feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
early Tuesday morning.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 23.2 21.4 16.3 12.9 11.8 10.9
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-271330-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.230323T2330Z.230327T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, Cabins on the left bank below the gage
begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:00 PM CDT Saturday was 18.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 21.2 feet early
Monday afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 18.4 20.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
Jaja638
WGUS43 KLSX 261217
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
717 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and
increased in duration for the following rivers in Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions change.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-280030-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230329T1614Z/
/VNDI2.2.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1800Z.230328T1014Z.NO/
717 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...Until late Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 23.9 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:00 AM CDT Sunday was 23.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.1
feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
early Tuesday morning.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 23.9 22.9 17.5 13.7 12.3 11.1
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
MRB997
WGUS83 KLSX 261619
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1119 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-280430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230329T1552Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1245Z.230328T0952Z.NO/
1119 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...Until late Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 23.9 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 11:00 AM CDT Sunday was 23.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 23.9
feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
early Tuesday morning.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 23.9 22.8 17.4 13.5 12.2 11.1
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-280430-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.230323T2330Z.230328T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1119 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, Cabins on the left bank below the gage
begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 19.0 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 11:00 AM CDT Sunday was 19.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 21.2 feet
tomorrow evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 19.0 20.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MRB367
WGUS83 KLSX 270200
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
900 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-281400-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230329T1340Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1245Z.230328T0740Z.NO/
900 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...Until Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 23.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:30 PM CDT Sunday was 23.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
early Tuesday morning and continue falling to 9.8 feet Sunday
evening.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 23.4 16.7 12.8 11.9 11.0 10.4
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-281400-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.230323T2330Z.230328T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
900 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, Cabins on the left bank below the gage
begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 19.6 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:30 PM CDT Sunday was 19.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 21.2
feet tomorrow evening.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 19.6 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
MG/MRM477
WGUS83 KLSX 271518
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1018 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
ILC051-290330-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230329T1237Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1245Z.230328T0637Z.NO/
1018 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...Until Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 23.0 feet, Agricultural levee begins to be slightly
overtopped. No residences are affected at this level.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 21.9 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 10:00 AM CDT Monday was 23.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 10.4 feet
Monday morning.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 21.9 16.3 11.2 10.1 10.6 11.0
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
ILC027-290330-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.230323T2330Z.230328T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, Cabins on the left bank below the gage
begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 20.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 10:00 AM CDT Monday was 20.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 21.2 feet this
evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 20.1 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
Maples704
WGUS83 KLSX 280112
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...Illinois...
Gasconade River near Rich Fountain.
Meramec River at Fenton.
Meramec River at Valley Park.
Meramec River at Pacific.
Meramec River near Eureka.
Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Illinois...Missouri...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
Meramec River near Arnold.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC151-291315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230329T2303Z/
/RIFM7.1.ER.230326T1725Z.230327T2100Z.230328T1703Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Gasconade River near Rich Fountain.
* WHEN...Until Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 22.5 feet, Near this height, Missouri State Route K
west of Bay will be closed in both directions due to backwater
along Second Creek.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 23.7 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CDT Monday was 24.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 5.6 feet
Saturday evening.
- Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 23.7 13.1 8.3 6.7 5.9 MSG
&&
LAT...LON 3842 9189 3866 9164 3866 9150 3814 9180
3814 9196
$$
ILC051-291315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230329T1353Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1245Z.230328T0753Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* WHEN...Until Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 19.2 feet, State Highway J just east of County Road
206 begins to flood near this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 20.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CDT Monday was 22.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 10.4 feet
Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 20.4 11.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.7
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
MOC099-189-291315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-230330T2046Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.230327T0248Z.230328T0015Z.230329T1446Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Arnold.
* WHEN...Until Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, Wells Road below Suson Woods begins
flooding at this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 28.8 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CDT Monday was 28.8 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.9
feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
late Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Meramec River
Arnold 24.0 28.8 24.6 19.4 16.1 14.2 12.8
&&
LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
3845 9043
$$
MOC099-189-291315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230330T0600Z/
/FNNM7.1.ER.230327T0949Z.230328T0600Z.230329T0000Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Fenton.
* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 25.2 feet, Minnie Ha Ha Park gazebo begins flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:46 PM CDT Monday the stage was 24.1 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:46 PM CDT Monday was 24.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.2
feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
flood stage tomorrow evening.
- Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Meramec River
Fenton 23.0 24.1 21.9 14.4 9.9 7.9 6.9
&&
LAT...LON 3854 9045 3854 9042 3848 9039 3848 9045
$$
MOC099-189-291315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-230330T1700Z/
/VLLM7.2.ER.230326T1050Z.230328T0000Z.230329T1100Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Valley Park.
* WHEN...Until early Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 23.5 feet, Riverfront parking area of Minnie Ha Ha
Park across the river from Fenton begins flooding near this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 23.7 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CDT Monday was 23.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
Wednesday morning and continue falling to 3.1 feet Sunday
evening.
- Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Meramec River
Valley Park 18.0 23.7 17.7 9.3 6.2 4.4 3.5
&&
LAT...LON 3853 9056 3855 9056 3857 9043 3854 9043
$$
MOC071-099-291315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-230330T0900Z/
/PCFM7.1.ER.230326T0410Z.230327T2315Z.230329T0300Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River at Pacific.
* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 19.4 feet, Private road under the Highway F bridge
becomes flooded at this height.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 20.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CDT Monday was 20.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
late tomorrow evening and continue falling to 2.8 feet Sunday
evening.
- Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 20.2 11.9 5.9 4.7 3.7 3.0
&&
LAT...LON 3838 9085 3840 9090 3848 9080 3849 9064
3845 9065
$$
MOC099-189-291315-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230330T1426Z/
/ERKM7.2.ER.230325T2109Z.230327T1715Z.230329T0826Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is
forecast.
* WHERE...Meramec River near Eureka.
* WHEN...Until late Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 27.0 feet, The Route 66 State Park road to the
equestrian trailhead and to the boat ramp is flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 26.6 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CDT Monday was 27.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
early Wednesday morning and continue falling to 6.7 feet
Sunday evening.
- Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.6 17.4 10.3 8.6 7.5 6.9
&&
LAT...LON 3845 9065 3855 9063 3855 9056 3850 9056
$$
ILC027-291315-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KCAI2.1.ER.230323T2330Z.230328T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Kaskaskia River at Carlyle.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 21.3 feet, Cabins on the left bank below the gage
begin flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 20.8 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 7:30 PM CDT Monday was 20.8 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood
stage at 21.2 feet.
- Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Kaskaskia River
Carlyle 16.5 20.8 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2
&&
LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
3854 8942
$$
Elmore076
WGUS83 KLSX 281257
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
757 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Illinois...
Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast
precipitation for the next 48 hours.
ILC051-281400-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-230328T1257Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.230324T1614Z.230326T1245Z.230328T1053Z.NO/
757 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 17.4 feet and falling.
- Forecast...The river is expected to continue falling.
&&
Fld Observed Forecasts (7:00 am)
Location Stg Stage Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 17.4 11.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.7
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
3882 8922
$$
KimbleWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 23, 10:52 AM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 23, 10:52 AM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1052 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
Latest analysis shows the cold front is slightly quicker than
previously expected as it bisects the metro area. Winds have
turned out of the north-northwest generally along the I-70
corridor. Temperatures are in the upper 60s/low-70s just ahead of
the front and quickly drop to the upper 40s to mid-50s behind the
front. Adjustments have been made to account for the quicker
progress. In regards to rainfall potential, PoPs were limited to
slight chances in the immediate vicinity of the boundary. Latest
radar trends show isolated light rain showers along and just
behind the front. CAMs suggest this will be the theme through
mid- afternoon before another impulse moves up the boundary this
evening, when showers and thunderstorms develop out of the
southwest. The best potential currently looks to be around and
after 22z, developing out of the southwest and spreading to the
northeast into the CWA through tonight.
Maples
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday Night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
Key messages through Friday evening:
- All indications continue to point to two rounds of heavy rain
to affect areas along and south of I-70 along a slow-moving cold
front starting this evening. This will likely lead to flooding
on several small streams and creeks including the Meramec, Big,
Bourbeuse, and Black River basins (among others). An isolated
threat for flash flooding also exists where several
thunderstorms impact the same area.
- Rainfall totals have not changed dramatically from the last forecast,
though the axis of heavy rain is trending very slightly further
south. A wide swath of 2-3" of rain is forecast within the
Flood Watch area by Friday night, with isolated instances of 4+"
expected.
- An low threat for marginally-severe hail exists this afternoon
and evening ahead of the cold front.
Regional surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary extending from
a surface low in south-central Kansas that stalled along an axis
from Columbia, Missouri to Springfield, Illinois. Aloft, an
amplified longwave trough is situated off the coast of Baja
California placing the south-central CONUS in southwest flow.
Isolated convection continues to percolate along the stalled
boundary, aided by a strengthening low-level jet. Forecast soundings
and SPC Mesoscale Analysis depict steep mid-level lapse rates above
8C/km amidst ~1000J/kg of MUCAPE just along and ahead of the
boundary. This environment will advect south along with the front
during the day today, as the trough out west begins to approach and
amplify flow aloft. Broad synoptic-scale lift and a strengthening
upper-level jet will promote a gradual uptick in precipitation
coverage through the day today along the front. While the
environment aloft will remain favorable for severe hail to develop,
the lower atmosphere is far less supportive of large hail reaching
the ground. While I cannot rule out an errant 1" hailstone,
primarily during the afternoon, the vast majority of any
thunderstorms that develop during the day will remain sub-severe.
This evening, a strengthening LLJ will draw an impulse of highly-
anomalous moisture into the region. Amidst strong, deep large-scale
lift, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
behind the front (coincident with stronger 850-700mb frontogenesis
and moisture convergence) around 00Z. The ingredients for efficient
heavy rain are still very evident in short-range ensembles, CAMs,
and deterministic guidance: warm cloud depths over 10,000ft, high RH
within the cloud depth, and steering flow parallel to the boundary
(introduces training thunderstorm potential). There appears to be a
weakening of MUCAPE in the most recent guidance during the evening
and overnight, which is one count against even more efficient heavy
rain, however the other factors still weigh heavily towards
impactful rainfall.
There remains some non-negligible uncertainty regarding the axis of
heavy rain, but overall the first round of thunderstorms looks to
orient itself along the I-44 corridor later this evening and
gradually drift southeast with time. HREF probability-matched mean
output, which tends to capture the high-end localized amounts fairly
well in these situations, shows a wide swath of 2-3" of rain by the
end of the initial wave overnight. Localized instances of 3+" are
depicted within that swath, which is completely plausible given the
combination of efficient rainfall and training convection. Global-
scale ensembles also feature high probabilities (~80%) for at least
2" of rain, and the NBM paints similar probabilities for this
threshold. In addition to flooding within several smaller river
basins (see the "Hydrology" section of the forecast discussion for
more information), these amounts are likely to cause impacts in low-
lying areas along with urbanized areas with poor runoff. Isolated
instances of flash flooding are also possible, particularly where
training convection can develop.
The LLJ weakens closer to sunrise on Friday, which will lead to a
lull (though likely not a complete end) to precipitation on Friday.
At the same time, the synoptic-scale system will begin to intensify
with the upper-level trough approaching the region. A surface low is
forecast to develop in the southern Great Plains and shunt northeast
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon on Friday. This
will draw another impulse of moisture north accordingly, and set the
stage for a second round of heavy rain Friday evening into very
early Saturday morning. The area of heavy rain will likely be
further south and east from the first round, and more progressive
given its association with a deepening cyclone. Regardless, given
a similar thermodynamic environment, impacts can be expected and
an additional 1-2" is forecast. There will likely be some overlap
from the two rounds, primarily in southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois, where the highest forecast rainfall totals exist
(localized amounts up to 4").
MRB
.LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
The surface low associated with the second round of heavy rain
Friday evening will deepen and exit the region to the northeast
overnight Friday. Deterministic global models and ensembles show a
deformation zone glancing the forecast area, though there is some
discrepancy as to how widespread any resultant precipitation it
will be. As evidenced in a close inspection of the clustered
ensemble members, some solutions develop the low slowly and cause
more widespread light precipitation. Others develop the low, and a
dry slot, more quickly and restrict precipitation to the northern
parts of the CWA. Regardless, precipitation should largely come
to an end by Saturday afternoon. The associated upper-level trough
will be east of the region by then, digging across the eastern
CONUS and allowing for longwave troughing to engulf most of the
CONUS.
While late Saturday into early Sunday looks dry, a weak shortwave in
the near-zonal flow is evident in a few deterministic models and
could spark light precipitation as early as Sunday evening. By
Monday, there is slightly more favorable jet-level dynamics for
precipitation to persist through Monday. Another very low potential
for rain exists on Tuesday associated with another shortwave, though
most ensemble members keep the region dry. Upper-level ridging
builds into the region by mid-week, bringing drier weather and
near-normal temperatures.
MRB
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
A stalled front that hung between KCOU and KUIN overnight is
helping focus a round of showers with isolated thunderstorms
across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois at this hour.
The front will slowly start to move south this morning, swinging
winds out of the north as it passes through the terminals. The
front will also draw lower CIGs (likely IFR) further south into
the St. Louis and mid-Missouri terminals. A strengthening low-
level jet will likely spawn showers and thunderstorms tonight
along and in the vicinity of the front. While the highest
rainfall totals will be south of the TAF sites, there will likely
be thunderstorms at the St. Louis terminals and in mid-Missouri
tonight. The thunderstorms may linger longer than the current
TAFs depict, but VCTS is used to indicate the most likely timing
for the thunderstorms.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: A stalled front that hung between KCOU and
KUIN overnight is helping focus a round of showers with isolated
thunderstorms across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois
at this hour. The front will slowly start to move south this
morning, swinging winds out of the north as it passes through the
terminals. The front will also draw lower CIGs (likely IFR)
further south into KSTL. A strengthening low- level jet will
likely spawn showers and thunderstorms tonight along and in the
vicinity of the front. While the highest rainfall totals will be
south of KSTL, there will likely be thunderstorms tonight. The
thunderstorms may linger longer than the current TAFs depict, but
VCTS is used to indicate the most likely timing for the
thunderstorms.
MRB
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
The aforementioned heavy rain, discussed in greater detail in the
"Short Term" section of this discussion, will likely cause many
small streams and creeks to flood in east-central/southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois. Additionally, areal flooding in low-lying
and urbanized places can be expected along with isolated instances
of flash flooding where training thunderstorms will develop.
Official river forecasts show notable rises within the Gasconade,
Maries, Meramec, Black, Big, and Bourbeuse River basins in Missouri
and the Kaskaskia River Basin in Illinois. Most forecast points
within these basins are expected to reach flood stage. The largest
source of uncertainty for these forecasts is where the heaviest rain
will set up, but with greater agreement among models in that detail,
confidence in flooding continues to increase and approach the
threshold for River Flood Warnings. Depending on the forecast point,
flooding from minor to near-major levels is forecast. Experimental
ensemble-based hydrographs suggest that there is some potential for
a few of these basins to exceed current forecasts, though that
depends entirely on where the band of heavy rain ultimately
develops. These ensembles also highlight rivers currently not
forecast to flood, such as the Cuivre River and Dardenne Creek, as
points to watch. As of now, the "worst-case" scenario brings these
gauges near or above minor flood stage, however they are not likely
to realize that solution unless a drastic shift in the heavy rain
axis occurs. As such, it is important to continue checking these
forecasts for updates during and after the rainfall.
MRB
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Friday night
for Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson
MO-Madison MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Friday night
for Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-
Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
WFO LSXHazardous weather outlook, Mar 23, 3:36 AM CDT, 8 hours 48 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 336 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-240845- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 336 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across most of the area. A few thunderstorms may have hail to the size of quarters. Heavy rain and instances of flooding are expected late today through tonight over parts of east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois where a Flood Watch is in effect. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Another round of thunderstorms with heavy rain is likely Friday over parts of east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois where a Flood Watch is in effect. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall totals and instances of flooding to the National Weather Service. MRB
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2023Every river flood warning in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.