Wind Advisory 2, NWS Los Angeles, CA

104 
WWUS76 KLOX 041024
NPWLOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
224 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

CAZ342-345-353-042230-
/O.CON.KLOX.HW.W.0001.230104T1400Z-230105T1400Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains-San Luis Obispo County Mountains-
Santa Barbara County Interior Mountains-
Including the cities of Hearst Castle, Irish Hills, 
Caliente Range, La Panza Range, Santa Margarita Lake, 
Big Pine Mountain, Figueroa Mountain, and San Rafael Mountain
224 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Santa Lucia Mountains, San Luis Obispo County 
  Mountains and Santa Barbara County Interior Mountains.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 6 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down large objects such as
  trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will
  be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Some
  roadways that may be affected by strong winds include Highways 
  41, 46, and 166 through the mountains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ340-341-346>349-351-042230-
/O.CON.KLOX.HW.W.0001.230104T1100Z-230105T1200Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
San Luis Obispo County Inland Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Inland Central Coast-Santa Ynez Valley-
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Ynez Mountains Western Range-
Including the cities of Arroyo Grande, Avila Beach, Cambria, 
Morro Bay, Pismo Beach, Lopez Lake, Nipomo, San Luis Obispo, 
Lompoc, Vandenberg Space Force Base, Buellton, Santa Maria, 
Lake Cachuma, Los Olivos, Santa Ynez, Solvang, 
El Capitan State Beach, Gaviota, Jalama Beach, 
Refugio State Beach, and San Marcos Pass
224 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...San Luis Obispo County Beaches, San Luis Obispo County 
  Inland Central Coast, Santa Barbara County Central Coast 
  Beaches, Santa Barbara County Inland Central Coast, Santa Ynez 
  Valley, Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast and Santa Ynez 
  Mountains Western Range.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down large objects such as
  trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will
  be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Some
  roadways that may be affected by strong winds include US
  Highways 1 and 101 and State Routes 41, 46, and 246 across the 
  coast and valleys.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ343-042230-
/O.EXA.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.230104T1800Z-230105T1400Z/
Southern Salinas Valley-
Including the cities of Atascadero, Lake Nacimiento, Paso Robles,
San Miguel, and Templeton
224 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Salinas Valley.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 6 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and
  make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
  Some roadways that may be affected by strong winds include US
  Highway 101 and State Routes 41 and 46. Tree limbs could be 
  blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ038-344-350-352-042230-
/O.CON.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.230104T1800Z-230105T1400Z/
Cuyama Valley-San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys-
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
Santa Ynez Mountains Eastern Range-
Including the cities of Carrizo Plain, Creston, Shandon, 
Carpinteria, Goleta, Montecito, and Santa Barbara
224 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Cuyama Valley, San Luis Obispo County Interior 
  Valleys, Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast and Santa 
  Ynez Mountains Eastern Range.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 6 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and
  make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result. Some roadways that may be affected by strong winds
  include US Highways 1 and 101 and State Routes 41, 46, 58, and
  166.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

TH/ASR

418 
WWUS76 KLOX 041745
NPWLOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
945 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

CAZ549-550-051300-
/O.EXB.KLOX.HW.W.0001.230105T0200Z-230105T1400Z/
San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands-
945 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands and Santa Cruz and 
  Anacapa Islands.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down large objects such as 
  trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will 
  be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Some 
  roadways that may be affected by strong winds include US 
  Highways 1 and 101 and State Routes 41, 46, and 246 across the 
  coast and valleys.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ340-341-346>349-351-051300-
/O.EXT.KLOX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230105T1400Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
San Luis Obispo County Inland Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Inland Central Coast-Santa Ynez Valley-
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Ynez Mountains Western Range-
Including the cities of Arroyo Grande, Avila Beach, Cambria, 
Morro Bay, Pismo Beach, Lopez Lake, Nipomo, San Luis Obispo, 
Lompoc, Vandenberg Space Force Base, Buellton, Santa Maria, 
Lake Cachuma, Los Olivos, Santa Ynez, Solvang, 
El Capitan State Beach, Gaviota, Jalama Beach, 
Refugio State Beach, and San Marcos Pass
945 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central coast of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
  Counties, Santa Ynez Valley, Santa Barbara County Southwestern 
  Coast and Santa Ynez Mountains Western Range.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM PST Thursday. Strongest late this afternoon
  and evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down large objects such as
  trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will
  be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ342-345-353-051300-
/O.CON.KLOX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230105T1400Z/
Santa Lucia Mountains-San Luis Obispo County Mountains-
Santa Barbara County Interior Mountains-
Including the cities of Hearst Castle, Irish Hills, 
Caliente Range, La Panza Range, Santa Margarita Lake, 
Big Pine Mountain, Figueroa Mountain, and San Rafael Mountain
945 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Santa Lucia Mountains, San Luis Obispo County 
  Mountains and Santa Barbara County Interior Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM PST Thursday. Strongest late this afternoon
  and evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down large objects such as
  trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will
  be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ087-088-354>359-362>365-547-548-051300-
/O.EXB.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.230105T0200Z-230105T1800Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Santa Clarita Valley-
Ventura County Beaches-Ventura County Inland Coast-Lake Casitas-
Ojai Valley-Central Ventura County Valleys-
Southeastern Ventura County Valleys-Malibu Coast-
Santa Monica Mountains-Los Angeles County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Inland Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
Including the cities of Avalon, Two Harbors, Castaic Lake, 
Newhall, Santa Clarita, Valencia, Oxnard, Point Mugu, 
Port Hueneme, Ventura, Camarillo, East Ventura, Meiners Oaks, 
Oak View, Ojai, Fillmore, Piru, Santa Paula, Moorpark, 
Newbury Park, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Malibu, 
Pacific Palisades, Zuma Beach, LAX, Long Beach, Palos Verdes, 
Redondo Beach, Santa Monica, Torrance, Beverly Hills, Compton, 
Culver City, Downey, Hollywood, Lakewood, Norwalk, Burbank, 
Northridge, Universal City, Woodland Hills, East Los Angeles, 
El Monte, Pasadena, Pomona, and San Gabriel
945 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Most of valleys and mountains of Los Angeles and 
  Ventura Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday. Strongest
  tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and
  make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ059-051300-
/O.EXB.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.230105T0200Z-230105T1800Z/
Antelope Valley-
Including the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale
945 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Antelope Valley.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday. Strongest
  later tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and
  make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Isolated gusts to 60 mph possible in the
  hills and around Palmdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ038-343-344-051300-
/O.EXT.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.230104T1745Z-230106T0600Z/
Cuyama Valley-Southern Salinas Valley-
San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys-
Including the cities of Atascadero, Lake Nacimiento, Paso Robles,
San Miguel, Templeton, Carrizo Plain, Creston, and Shandon
945 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected,
  becoming southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph after
  Thursday morning.

* WHERE...Cuyama Valley, Southern Salinas Valley and San Luis 
  Obispo County Interior Valleys.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST Thursday. Strongest tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and
  make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Isolated brief gusts to 60 mph possible
  tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ350-352-051300-
/O.EXT.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.230104T1745Z-230105T1400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
Santa Ynez Mountains Eastern Range-
Including the cities of Carpinteria, Goleta, Montecito, 
and Santa Barbara
945 AM PST Wed Jan 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast and Santa Ynez 
  Mountains Eastern Range.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM PST Thursday. Strongest tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and
  make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Isolated brief gusts to 60 mph possible
  tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

852 
WWUS76 KLOX 051404
NPWLOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
604 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

CAZ340>342-345>349-351-353-549-550-051515-
/O.EXP.KLOX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230105T1400Z/
San Luis Obispo County Beaches-
San Luis Obispo County Inland Central Coast-Santa Lucia Mountains-
San Luis Obispo County Mountains-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches-
Santa Barbara County Inland Central Coast-Santa Ynez Valley-
Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast-
Santa Ynez Mountains Western Range-
Santa Barbara County Interior Mountains-
San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands-
Including the cities of Arroyo Grande, Avila Beach, Cambria, 
Morro Bay, Pismo Beach, Lopez Lake, Nipomo, San Luis Obispo, 
Hearst Castle, Irish Hills, Caliente Range, La Panza Range, 
Santa Margarita Lake, Lompoc, Vandenberg Space Force Base, 
Buellton, Santa Maria, Lake Cachuma, Los Olivos, Santa Ynez, 
Solvang, El Capitan State Beach, Gaviota, Jalama Beach, 
Refugio State Beach, San Marcos Pass, Big Pine Mountain, 
Figueroa Mountain, and San Rafael Mountain
604 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to decrease today.

$$

CAZ087-088-354>359-362>365-547-548-051515-
/O.CAN.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230105T1800Z/
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-Santa Clarita Valley-
Ventura County Beaches-Ventura County Inland Coast-Lake Casitas-
Ojai Valley-Central Ventura County Valleys-
Southeastern Ventura County Valleys-Malibu Coast-
Santa Monica Mountains-Los Angeles County Beaches-
Los Angeles County Inland Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
Including the cities of Avalon, Two Harbors, Castaic Lake, 
Newhall, Santa Clarita, Valencia, Oxnard, Point Mugu, 
Port Hueneme, Ventura, Camarillo, East Ventura, Meiners Oaks, 
Oak View, Ojai, Fillmore, Piru, Santa Paula, Moorpark, 
Newbury Park, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Malibu, 
Pacific Palisades, Zuma Beach, LAX, Long Beach, Palos Verdes, 
Redondo Beach, Santa Monica, Torrance, Beverly Hills, Compton, 
Culver City, Downey, Hollywood, Lakewood, Norwalk, Burbank, 
Northridge, Universal City, Woodland Hills, East Los Angeles, 
El Monte, Pasadena, Pomona, and San Gabriel
604 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to decrease today.

$$

CAZ038-343-344-051515-
/O.CAN.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230106T0600Z/
Cuyama Valley-Southern Salinas Valley-
San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys-
Including the cities of Atascadero, Lake Nacimiento, Paso Robles,
San Miguel, Templeton, Carrizo Plain, Creston, and Shandon
604 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to decrease today.

$$

CAZ350-352-051515-
/O.EXP.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230105T1400Z/
Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast-
Santa Ynez Mountains Eastern Range-
Including the cities of Carpinteria, Goleta, Montecito, 
and Santa Barbara
604 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to decrease today.


$$

CAZ059-051800-
/O.CON.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230105T1800Z/
Antelope Valley-
Including the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale
604 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Antelope Valley.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and 
  make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

947 
WWUS76 KLOX 051753
NPWLOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
953 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

CAZ059-051900-
/O.EXP.KLOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230105T1800Z/
Antelope Valley-
Including the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale
953 AM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

Gusty winds will continue through the evening, especially near the
foothills, but will remain below advisory thresholds. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1024 PM PST Tue Jan 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...03/932 PM.

A strong Pacific storm system is expected late Wednesday into
Thursday with strong winds, high surf, and heavy rain and high
elevation snow. A drying trend will establish for Friday, then a
wet weather pattern will resume over the weekend and into early
next week. Rain and high elevation snow will be possible at times
Saturday into early next week. Temperatures will remain cooler
than normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/1003 PM.

The latest water vapor imagery shows a strong Pacific low
pressure system near 37N and 140W, or about 1000 miles west-
northwest of Point Conception. This system is strengthening and
becoming more mature as it crosses the eastern Pacific Ocean
toward the West Coast. A moist subtropical fetch can be seen off
the southern and southwestern side of the trough. The mositure
with the system will begin to move into the region through morning
as a developing warm frontal boundary moves east toward the state
through Wednesday. A warm air advective pattern developing with
the moist air mass will permit the air mass to lift further as the
air mass hit the topography of southern and central California.
Light to moderate rainfall or heavy drizzle will develop through
Wednesday across most of the area. As a result, PoPs have been
nudged higher in the latest updates to mention most categorical
rain across most coastal, valley, and foothill locales for
Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday. Short-range multi-model
ensemble members suggest near 100 percent chances of precipitation
for the region as soon as Wednesday. The forecast nudges toward
this idea. With 700 mb temperatures hovering just below freezing,
snow levels should be pretty high, probably above 7000 feet,
keeping any accumulating at the resort levels.

With the high snow levels, the main wrinkle in the forecast seems
to be how handle gusty and potentially damaging winds for the Los
Angeles and Ventura County mountains and the potential for
accumulating snowfall for the mountains. Most of the accumulating
snowfall will occur above 7500 feet initially, but snow levels
will crash on Thursday, potentially affecting some of the higher
roadways in the mountains, such as Angeles Crest and Big Pines
Highways in Los Angeles County and Lockwood Valley Road in
Ventura County. The larger headline threat would be the winds for
most mountain area, but snowfall could be impactful. For now, the
decision will be tabled to get more data.

No other changes are planned at this time as the storm details
remain on track.

***From Previous Discussion***

A deep moist layer has portions of Ventura to LA County and
points south socked in with clouds into this afternoon with a
break in cloud coverage elsewhere, save for high clouds steaming
well in advance of our next system. Southeasterly flow with wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph continues to squeeze out drizzle or light
showers focused along coastal mountain slopes this afternoon, less
widespread in coverage than earlier this morning. A piece of
energy aloft will advect into the region tonight, possibly
supporting an increase in shower coverage focused across
mountains. Warm front processes will significantly increase
rainfall coverage and amounts late Wednesday morning and
especially into the afternoon with rainfall rates of a tenth to
quarter of an inch becoming common (local rates up to a half of an
inch per hour) in south facing coastal slopes and foothills,
especially in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. Ahead of the
main front we are now forecasting through Wednesday afternoon (in
collaboration with the Weather Prediction Center) roughly one to
three quarters of an inch coasts and valleys to 1 to locally 2.5
inches south facing coastal mountain slopes. A slow moving cold
front will steer a moderate to strong atmospheric river (fueled
with high precipitable water values up to 1.25 inches and a strong
low level jet with 850 wind up to 60 mph) through the region from
north to south Wednesday evening through Thursday. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain will last 6-12 hours along and ahead of the
front. Peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be
common with this feature, with locally higher rainfall rates
possible for south facing mountain slopes, especially for Santa
Barbara and Ventura Counties. Rainfall totals will generally be
2-4 inches coasts and valleys with 4-8 inches south facing
mountains, highest across Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties.
These rates and amounts could cause significant flash flooding or
debris flows across the region in and outside of recent burn scars
with significant small stream and urban flooding possible. We
have issued a Flood Watch (see FFALOX for details) for this threat
for all of Southwest California. Significant flow is expected in
main stem rivers by Thursday or Friday, however flooding is not
anticipated with this storms projected rainfall amounts. However,
the expected flow within normally dry river beds will likely be a
concern for some homeless communities. The warm and moist airmass
will push snow levels will be at or above resort levels through
the most significant precipitation such that snowfall is not
expected to be a significant hazard through at least Thursday
morning. If there is sufficient precipitation behind the front
light snowfall accumulations will be possible possible down to
6000 feet and locally lower.

On top of the significant flood hazard, strong and damaging winds
still look likely within the current High Wind Watch (see NPWLOX
for details) which will be extended to include the mountains
coastal valleys and most coasts of San Luis and Santa Barbara
Counties. Damaging wind gusts of 50-70 mph will be possible within
the Watch area, possibly leading to downed trees and powerlines in
some areas. Widespread advisory level winds are expected for all
other areas with associated Wind Advisories likely to be issues as
the even nears. The strongest winds will be along and just ahead
of the cold front. Temperatures throughout the event will be
fairly steady in the 50s to near 60 lower elevations and 40s to
near 50 in the mountains.

A brief break in the action is expected Friday with clearing
skies and temperatures warmer up closer to normal for early
January with widespread highs in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/205 PM.

Above normal confidence that the progressive and active pattern
will bring rain and mountain snow to southwest confidence at times
well into next week, although divergence in ensemble guidance
reduces confidence in the details especially after this weekend.

A fairly weak disturbance is poised to push through the region
this weekend, with rain and mountain snow chances highest north of
Point Conception. The progressive nature and lack of moist
southerly flow ahead of the system will limit rainfall rates and
amounts or in other words mainly just a beneficial rainfall event.
Light snow accumulations will be possible, mainly above 6000
feet.

The pattern becomes more amplified early next week, opening the
door for a more significant system, but details remain quite
fuzzy, so will await better consensus before attempting to get
into details. The next result is a continued wet pattern seems
likely at times through at least the middle part of the week. Near
to below normal temperatures will likely prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0621Z.

At 0440Z at KLAX, there a 70000 ft moist layer with no inversion.

Low confidence in all TAFs. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
through the period. There is a chc of rain at all sites through
the period becoming more and more likely after 20Z.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
through the period. There is a 20 percent chc of rain 06Z-21Z.
There will likely be periods of no rain 21Z-04Z as well. Good
confidence in east wind fcst with a 30 percent chc of 21010KT
winds arriving early at 01Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
through the period. There is a 20 percent chc of rain 06Z-21Z.
There will likely be periods of no rain 21Z-04Z as well.

&&

.MARINE...03/1240 PM.

For the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Sal,
high confidence in current forecast. For tonight through
Thursday, southeast winds will increasing dramatically with high
confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds tonight,
increasing to Gale force on Wednesday and continuing through
Thursday morning with seas well above 10 feet. Additionally, there
is a 20% chance of Storm Force winds (50 knots) Wednesday night
and Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, the winds will
diminish with winds expected to remain below SCA levels through
Sunday. However, seas will likely remain at SCA levels through
Sunday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
to high confidence in current forecast. For tonight and Wednesday,
high confidence in southeast winds increasing to SCA levels and
remaining at SCA levels through Thursday. Additionally, there is a
50-60% chance of Gale Force winds Wednesday night and Thursday.
For Friday, high confidence in SCA level seas, but with winds
remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday and Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

&&

.BEACHES...03/1248 PM.

A lingering large swell in the waters north of Point Conception
will maintain surf heights of 8 to 12 feet along the Central Coast
through early Thursday. Another strong Pacific storm system will
bring rapidly building, large surf to all beach areas on Thursday.
Surf heights will hovering around 20 feet on the Central Coast
Thursday and Friday and a HIGH SURF WARNING has been issued. South
of Point Conception, warning level surf (around 14 feet) is
expected for the Ventura Beaches and a HIGH SURF WARNING is in
effect for these beaches also. Elsewhere south of Point
Conception, high surf conditions are anticipated and HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES have been issued.

Along with the high surf, there could be some minor coastal
flooding across the Central Coast and the Ventura county coast on
Thursday and Friday.

Frequent, dangerous rip currents will occur at all beach areas
Thursday through Friday. Large waves will top rock jetties that
have a history of fatalities along southwest California beaches.
Be on the lookout for waves that move well up the beach during
times of high tide, and some much larger waves may occur without
warning. Stay well back from the water's edge and stay off of
rocks and jetties.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      late Wednesday night for zone 53. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday
      afternoon for zones 53-54-59-87-88-354>359-362>365-547-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST
      Friday for zones 87-349-350-362-364. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from 10 AM PST Wednesday through
      late Wednesday night for zones 340>342-345>349-351-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      Thursday morning for zones 340>353-549-550. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 4 AM Thursday to 1 PM
      PST Friday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST
      Friday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 AM
      PST Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from late Wednesday night through
      Thursday afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Hall/Munroe
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox