Wind Advisory 11, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

088 
WWUS73 KLMK 311938
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
338 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-011000-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0011.230401T0000Z-230401T2100Z/
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, 
Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, 
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, 
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, 
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, 
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, 
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, 
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, 
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, 
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, 
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, 
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, 
and Albany
338 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 /238 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING TO 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KDW

709 
WWUS73 KLMK 010753
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
353 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-012100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-230401T2100Z/
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, 
Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, 
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, 
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, 
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, 
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, 
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, 
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, 
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, 
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, 
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, 
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, 
and Albany
353 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 /253 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle on a north-south oriented road. Secure outdoor 
objects.

&&

$$

CSG

194 
WWUS73 KLMK 011430
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1030 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-077-
078-012100-
/O.UPG.KLMK.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-230401T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLMK.HW.W.0004.230401T1430Z-230401T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KLMK.WI.Y.0012.230401T2000Z-230401T2100Z/
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Adair-Russell-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, 
Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, 
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, 
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, 
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, 
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, 
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, 
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, 
Lancaster, Richmond, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, 
Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Columbia, and Jamestown
1030 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 /930 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ TO 5 PM EDT
/4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 20 to 30 mph with
  gusts around 60 mph. 

* WHERE...Portions of and south central Indiana and east 
  central, north central, northwest and south central Kentucky. 

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ 
  this afternoon. For the Wind Advisory, from 4 PM EDT /3 PM 
  CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ061-070>076-081-082-012100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-230401T2100Z/
Butler-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Morgantown, Russellville, Bowling Green, 
Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, 
Edmonton, Burkesville, and Albany
930 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

890 
WWUS73 KLMK 011907
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-077-
078-012100-
/O.CAN.KLMK.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230401T2000Z/
/O.EXT.KLMK.WI.Y.0012.230401T1907Z-230401T2100Z/
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-
Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Adair-Russell-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, 
Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, 
Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, 
Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, 
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, 
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, 
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, 
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, 
Lancaster, Richmond, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, 
Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Columbia, and Jamestown
307 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 /207 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of and south central Indiana and east 
  central, north central, northwest and south central Kentucky. 

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KYZ061-070>076-081-082-012100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-230401T2100Z/
Butler-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Morgantown, Russellville, Bowling Green, 
Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, 
Edmonton, Burkesville, and Albany
207 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Butler, Logan, Warren, Simpson, Allen, Barren, Monroe, 
  Metcalfe, Cumberland and Clinton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.Short Term (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...Strong to Severe Storms possible mainly west of I 65 tonight...
...WINDY through late day Saturday...
...Locally heavy rain in storms tonight...

==========================================
Key Messages
==========================================

- Impactful weather system moves through Friday night with a threat
of severe thunderstorms in southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Best locations are west of I 65.

-Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-1.5 inches with some very
localized, minor flooding possible.

- Gusty gradient (non-thunderstorm) winds are expected late Friday
night and into the day on Saturday.  Localized wind gusts may exceed
50 mph in spots, especially in the northeast Bluegrass region.  This
may result in scattered power outages once again.

Today...

Well...WAA and Theta E precip will come in a couple of waves this
morning. Some embedded thunder will be possible as well given the
weak elevated instability.  LLVL stability will inhibit svr wx this
morning. One wave should be 08z-13 and another 14-17z...and then
there is a decent break in the action.  One of the big questions is
how much sunshine can pop out from the llvl and upper level clouds.
That is one of the keys to this bimodal convective event.

SSW Winds will be strong at 18 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 40
mph. Another Wet and Windy Friday (shocking).

High Temps will range from mid 60s NE to maybe as much as 75 F near
TN state border in Logan/Simpson Counties.

Tonight...

Going to focus on the 2 highest areas of svr storm potential...The
SW CWA and western areas west of I 65 (especially IN Counties)

SW CWA Svr Area 1

CAMs models showing many convective solutions...but all show
convection will be ongoing west of CWA by 00z Sat and quickly racing
its way eastward ahead of a pre-frontal trough. As the storms
advance eastward, a narrow tongue of 60-61 dewpoints will be drawn
northward ahead of a stout 65-70 kts LLJ within an environment of
high to extreme low/deep layer shear. Several of the more aggressive
high resolution models have 0-1 SRH 500-600 m2/s2 and 0-3
km SRH of 750-800 m2/s2 and right turning hodographs.

This narrow corridor of higher dewpoints will help to destabilize
the lower levels of the atmosphere ahead the storms. The best
moisture return and potential for low level destabilization will be
across out southwest counties
(Logan/Simpson/Butler/Allen/Warren/Edmonson/Monroe Counties. Several
pieces of data suggest 1 or 2 supercells forming in NE AR/W TN and
moving NE towards BWG area 02-06z. If the afternoon can clear
out...as much as 500 J/KG of sfc CAPE are west of I-65. Afternoon
clearing/destabilization is key to how this unfolds.  If clearing
occurs...the tornado threat increases along with wind threat. If
clouds hold tough...the threat is much less. Depending on afternoon
clearing, some large hail is possible in the evening. A bit of
boom/bust scenario.

W of 65 (not including SW KY)...

Forcing ahead and along the pre-frontal trough will likely be strong
enough to congeal convection into broken or solid lines when they
arrive in our region (02-06z). Damaging straight line wind gusts
would be the most likely weather hazard with the stronger/severe
storms. Given the extreme low level shear (winds more
unidirectional), 1-2 spin up QLCS tornadoes within portions of the
line are possible. Be looking for those line breaks and reflectivity
nubs for highest potential. Hail looks to be minimal threat.

The CAMs are almost split on how this unfolds with half keeping the
line basically along and north of the Ohio river and mainly
affecting IN. The other half bring it through the northern 2/3 of
the CWA and weakening in intensity east of US 127. Our thinking is
along and north of the W/BG Parkway and to as far east as 127 with I
65 being a barrier for sfc instability.

The overall flood threat remains low too, mainly because the
residence time of convection looks to be fairly low over any one
given area. In areas that see training of storms, a very localized
minor flood threat could develop. Some of the data does shows a
couple of clusters of intense storms across the SW CWA which could
have a better chance of flash flooding.

Lest I forget, about the sfc winds....as sfc low over WI/IA/IL
border moves east...the pressure gradient (with sfc high off of Cape
Hatteras) will increase even more and have coordinated a wind
advisory with IND/OHX/PAH for tonight and thru most of Sat. There
may be a gap with relatively minimal winds post-frontal, before deep
mixing/momentum transport begins early Saturday.

Weather Factoid...

March 31 1962...17 people were tragically killed by a tornado in
Milton Florida. It is the single worst single tornado in FL history.

March 31, 1979...A tornado did F3 damage in 13 mile long path in
Barren County, killing 1 person, injuring 19 and resulting in 2.5
million in damages.

.Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

==========================================
Key Messages
==========================================

- Gusty gradient (non-thunderstorm) winds expected during the day on
Saturday.  Localized wind gusts across our eastern CWA could exceed
50 mph in spots.  This may result in scattered power outages.

- Strong weather system to impact the region late Tuesday/Wednesday.

==========================================
Synoptic Overview
==========================================

Active weather pattern is expected to continue through the extended
forecast period.  Strong upper level wave will move through the
Great Lakes at the beginning of the period with the upper level flow
relaxing for Sunday and into Monday.  While we'll see a brief period
of zonal flow, another strong upper level trough axis will eject out
of the Rockies and then transverse the Plains by mid-week and arrive
into the Great Lakes by Thursday.  With a very mature mid-latitude
cyclone moving through the nation, a large warm sector from the
eastern Plains/Midwest/Mid-MS Valley is expected to develop.
Increasing wind fields and strong moisture advection from the Gulf
will set the stage for another regional outbreak of severe weather
by late Tuesday and into Wednesday.

==========================================
Meteorological Discussion
and Sensible Weather Impacts
==========================================

Saturday through Sunday Night...

Surface cold front is expected to be well east of the forecast area
by Saturday morning.  Initially the day will start off partly
cloudy, but low-level cloudiness will likely rotate into the region
by mid-late afternoon.  The main weather impact on Saturday will be
gusty gradient (non-thunderstorm winds).  While we'll see a relative
lull in winds early Saturday morning, core of higher momentum winds
will overspread the region by mid-late morning.  As we head through
the day, a fair amount of mixing will take place and wind gusts will
increase across the region.  Wind gusts across much of the region
will be in the 40-45 mph range initially.  However, stronger mixing
is likely east of the I-65 corridor and localized wind gusts of 50-
60 mph will be possible.  Winds of this magnitude may result in
localized wind damage and power outages.  The highest risk of wind
damage and power outages would be in areas generally east of the US
27/127 corridor.  A Wind Advisory has been posted for the entire CWA
for Saturday.  We will continue to monitor wind data forecasts over
the next 24-36 h

By late Tuesday, aforementioned trough axis will move through the
Plains and into the Midwest. Environmental winds through the
column will increase markedly resulting in shear profiles
supportive of strong/severe organized convection. Given the amount
of heating and strong northward moisture transport, ours and if
higher winds materialize, a High Wind Warning may be required for
parts of the area.

Highs on the day will be in the 55-60 degree range
across southern IN and in areas west of I-65.  60-65 degree readings
are expected across our east/southeast.

The gradient winds are expected to diminish rather quickly by
evening.  We'll likely still contend with some low clouds across our
northeast/east sections which may linger into the overnight hours.
Temps Saturday night will drop into the lower 30s.  A few sprinkles
and possibly a few snow flurries are possible over northeastern KY.

Tranquil and sunny conditions are expected for Sunday with highs in
the upper 50s to the lower 60s and overnight lows in the lower-mid
40s.

Monday through Thursday...

As we move into next week, the tranquil pattern will not last long
as the upper level flow will re-amplify.  A vigorous mid-upper level
trough axis is forecast to eject out of the western US and head
eastward toward the Plains.  Ridging will build over the eastern US
due to western CONUS troughing and a broad southwest flow pattern
with a strong warm advection scheme will develop.  As this broad
warm sector develops, a warm front will push through the region.
This may result in some scattered convection for Monday/Tuesday.
Overall coverage here looks fairly sparse and focused forcing
remains quite low.  Temperatures on Monday will warm into the lower
70s with overnight lows only dropping into the upper 50s/lower 60s.
Highs on Tuesday should warm well into the upper 70s with a few
spots possibly touching 80.

By late Tuesday, aforementioned upper trough axis will move through
the Plains and into the Midwest.  Rich boundary layer moisture
within the warm sector will be in place and mid-level lapse rates
will increase to our west as colder/drier air aloft pushes in behind
the trough axis.  The large scale synoptic pattern will favor
another regional outbreak of severe weather centered somewhere over
east central Plains, the Midwest, and into the lower-middle portion
of the MS Valley.  This severe weather will be in advance of a
strong cold front that will push through the region.  As of this
writing, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty over the timing of
the front.  The GFS remains a bit slower pushing the front through
here Wednesday afternoon, while the Euro remains steadfast in
pushing it through early Wednesday morning (near our diurnal
convective minimum).  We'll continue to monitor the trends in the
data closely over the next several days.  Behind the front, drier
and cooler weather is expected for the remainder of the workweek.

==========================================
Forecast Confidence
==========================================

Forecast confidence is high with respect to the gusty gradient winds
on Saturday.  Forecast confidence is also rather high with the warm
up in temperatures for early next week.  Uncertainties in the
frontal position for mid-week and beyond result in a lower
confidence in details on severe weather risks at this time.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Well...Currently have a cirrus canopy overhead with the WAA precip
now in W KY and heading towards all the TAF sites. 88d VWP showing
40 mph at 925 mb. The core of a LLJ is moving into central IL and
northern IN overnight. Have LLWS for all the sites thru just after
daybreak.

Rain showers are expected to increase and be over the area from HNB-
SDF-BWG between 07-09z and then LEX by 10-11z. Currently have a 30
degree T/Td spread, so your favorite radar app may be misleading for
a time. Keep in mind...At times, these rain showers could lower VIS
to MVFR for a period but went prevailing VFR through the forecast
period. There is some elevated instability for isol TSRA in the
Western area this morning.

Winds will also be another impact as a tightening pressure gradient
over the Ohio Valley increases southerly winds with gusts of 30 to
35 midday and increasing above 40 mph around sunset.

Should have 2 waves of waa precip this morning, and then a big break
this afternoon and see what develops to our west. A potent 100 kt
upper level jet works with sfc dew points in the mid 60s over AR/SE
MO/Nrn MS.  This will develop a few strong to svr storms and spread
eastward on the southwest flank (towards BWG TAF 02-6z). Challenging
weather for flying 09z-17z and after 00z.

Meanwhile storms on the northern flank over MO/IL try to develop a
line of storms moving towards HNB and SDF in the 01-06z time frame
and a tad later for LEX. Instability is there for TSRA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 5 PM EDT
     /4 PM CDT/ Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

IN...Wind Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 5 PM EDT
     /4 PM CDT/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Short Term........JDG
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JDG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-311930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
323 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023 /223 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday night as a cold
front moves through the region. The highest risk of severe weather
will be in areas mainly west of I-65 where damaging winds and an
isolated tornado or two will be possible.

After the cold front passes through, gusty gradient winds are
expected for Saturday. Wind gusts of 40-45 mph will be possible and a
few gusts of 50 mph or greater will be possible, especially across
the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.

Additional strong to severe storms are possible next week, though
there remains some uncertainty in the timing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday night.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

DM