Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

.Short Term (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...Severe Thunderstorms Remain Possible This Evening With Flooding
Risk across south-central KY...

Threat of strong to severe storms remains for late this afternoon
and into the evening hours. A broken line of strong to severe storms
stretches from Columbus OH through southern IN to Jasper and
Evansville to Paducah, KY. While the focus for severe weather is
along the main line working into our CWA as of the writing of this
discussion, with temperatures already in the low/mid 80s this
afternoon SBCAPE is between 1000-1500 J/kg with steep low/mid-level
lapse rate, an isolated supercell out ahead of the main line is not
out of the question. We will be watching areas across
western/central TN where there has been more sunshine today. Many of
the CAMS have been hinting at the possibilAity of a few isolated
supercells developing ahead of the line and moving into
central/southern KY. Model soundings continue to show a good
unidirectional wind profile for organized convection and DCAPE near
1000 J/kg supporting damaging straight line wind gusts as the main
threat. While most of the SRH and directional shear is off to our
north, it is still possible we could get a couple of spin-up
tornadoes. The line is expected to work westward and reach the I-65
corridor from Louisville to Bowling Green around 21-22z the over
towards Lexington and the Bluegrass down into the Lake Cumberland
region by 23-01z. Severe threat will likely be out of our CWA before
midnight.

Winds have been gusting 30 to 40+ mph as we were able to mix out
very well this afternoon. Winds will diminish with the passage of
the showers and storms so wind advisory will be allowed to expire at
00z this evening. Cold front will work across central KY/southern IN
this evening and temperatures will fall from the 60s/70s this
evening into the 40s/50s by tomorrow morning. Models have been
consistent the last couple of runs at slowing the cold front across
south-central and eastern KY overnight into tomorrow morning. As the
front stalls, a second wave of heavy rain with some embedded
convection will work northward out of LA/AR and across the TN Valley
into southern KY during the overnight hours. Given that current 6 hr
FFG across the Lake Cumberland region and parts of the Bluegrass are
between 2.00" to 2.50"with some locations even lower and current QPF
values for tonight into tomorrow range between 2 to 3 inches, went
ahead and issued a flood watch for our counties across south-
central KY into the Lake Cumberland region for possible flash
flooding overnight.

Tomorrow will be significantly colder than today with lingering
cloud cover across the Ohio Valley. Light rain is expected through
the morning then diminish from northwest to southeast by the
afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will only be in the low/mid 50s.

.Long Term (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Much quieter weather is expected in the Long Term.

Thursday night through Friday night high pressure over the Midwest
and Great Lakes will build into the region, suppressing rain to our
south other than possibly some light rain in the Lake Cumberland
area on the north edge of the precipitation shield. Lows Thursday
night and Friday night will primarily be in the 40s, with cold spots
slipping into the upper 30s. Widespread frost is not expected given
borderline temperatures, a light breeze staying up through the night
as the center of the high misses us to the north, and we'll hold on
to some cloud cover.

Saturday a weak 5H shortwave trough will cross the lower Mississippi
Valley with a subtle inverted surface trough stretching from
Louisiana to Kentucky. The best moisture associated with this system
will stay over the Deep South...can't rule out a few raindrops
making it up to the Kentucky/Tennessee border.

Sunday through Wednesday ridging at the surface with gradually
increasing ridging aloft and low atmospheric moisture content will
keep us dry with moderating temperatures. Looks like we'll be back
into the 80s by Wednesday. Increased chances of warmer and drier
weather will continue through mid April.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

A broken line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
stretching from Fort Wayne, IN through Indianapolis into KHNB and
down around Cape Girardeau MO is working into the area. These strong
storms and showers will work through now and could be mostly out of
the area by 04z as the line works from west to east. Gusty winds
remain the main threat with these thunderstorm complexes. Winds have
also been gusty all day and that will continue until about the time
the storms and cold front work through this afternoon and evening.
Gust this afternoon will still reach 35+ kts. Outside of the passing
storms the forecast features mainly VFR conditions for HNB/SDF with
periods of MVFR for LEX to BWG where the front and associated
precipitation is expected to stall later tonight and into the day
tomorrow. While it won't be as windy wet weather with waves of rain
are possible from BWG to LEX into the morning. Mid clouds will
linger into tomorrow but winds will be less and expect conditions to
dry out during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

     Flood Watch from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight through
     Thursday afternoon for KYZ054>057-064>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Short Term........BTN
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........BTN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
334 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

KYZ026-027-035>037-039>043-045>049-053-061>063-061945-
Ohio-Grayson-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark-Larue-
Butler-Edmonson-Hart-
Including the cities of Hartford, Leitchfield, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris,
Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville,
Winchester, Hodgenville, Morgantown, Brownsville, and Horse Cave
334 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 /234 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. The main
threat will be damaging straight line winds, but a brief tornado or
two can't be ruled out.

Heavy rain is expected overnight into early Thursday morning and may
result in local flooding problems.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed now through this evening.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move northeast around 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm
activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with
caution and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-028>034-038-061945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-
Henry-Shelby-Spencer-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville,
and Taylorsville
334 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 /234 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 127 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. The main
threat will be damaging straight line winds, but a brief tornado or
two can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed now through this evening.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move northeast around 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm
activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with
caution and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ054>057-064>067-070>078-081-082-061945-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
334 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 /234 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. The main
threat will be damaging straight line winds, but a brief tornado or
two can't be ruled out.

Heavy rain is expected overnight into early Thursday morning and may
result in local flooding problems.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed now through this evening.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move northeast around 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm
activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with
caution and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

BTN/13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
415 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

INZ076-077-083-084-089-090-052045-
Crawford IN-Orange IN-Washington IN-Perry IN-Dubois IN-Harrison IN-
415 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Harrison, southeastern Dubois, Crawford, northeastern Perry, southern
Orange and southwestern Washington Counties through 445 PM EDT/345 PM
CDT/...

At 415 PM EDT/315 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles west of English to
12 miles southwest of Carefree Town. Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  English and Carefree Town around 425 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Corydon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT/400 PM CDT/ for
south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 8625 3824 8601 3818 8633 3820 8636
      3817 8638 3812 8668 3840 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 259DEG 49KT 3835 8667 3815 8655

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT WED APR 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE HARTFORD          37.46N 86.86W
04/05/2023  M60 MPH          OHIO               KY   MESONET

            WIND GUST OF 60 MPH OBSERVED AT OHIO COUNTY
            KENTUCKY MESONET SITE (HTFD).

&&

CSG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
448 PM EDT WED APR 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STEPHENSPORT            37.92N 86.53W
04/05/2023                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON A HOUSE IN
            STEPHENSPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CSG

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