Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
236 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

.Short Term...(This afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 145 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

================================================================
Key Messages:

* Scattered strong to severe storms likely through the evening.

* Main threats with severe storms are damaging winds and
  isolated tornadoes through 10pm EST.

* Area of concern within the region is across central Kentucky.
================================================================

Environment this afternoon is slowly becoming primed for severe
weather. Low level moisture continues to stream northward as
dewpoints across south-central Kentucky climb into the low 60s. 18z
SPC Mesoanalysis parameters indicate ample effective bulk shear
(+60kts) already over the region and a tongue of +500J/KG SBCAPE is
slowly advecting in from the west. Low level shear is also
impressive, and we should see Sig-Tor parameters in excess of 1 for
much of central Kentucky for the afternoon and early evening. The
combination of shear and instability will support severe storms,
capable of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Any isolated
supercells able to develop ahead of the cold front will also pose a
threat for large hail. Activity is expected to grow upscale into
bowing segments or one large QLCS. SPC Tornado Watch 714 currently
impacts portions of south-central Kentucky, but this will likely
expand farther east as the severe threat evolves.

The cold front is expected to push through the region by midnight,
leaving in its wake drier and much colder air. The cold will be
quite noticeable tomorrow during the day, as high temps struggle to
climb into the low 40s, and brisk northwest winds keep wind chills
in the 30s. It's possible we may have enough low level moisture to
support a few flurries at times, but the latest 12z guidance has
come in a bit drier, so for time being have removed flurry mention
from forecast.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

================================================================
Key Messages

- Dry and near-normal temperatures most of next week

- Potential for another storm system and increased rain chances
for the weekend.

================================================================

Much of the weather for next week will be dry and fairly seasonable
as the upper-level pattern flattens out and becomes more zonal over
the Ohio Valley as sfc high pressure builds in and dominates for the
bulk of the long term. Flow aloft will remain northwest over the
Ohio Valley for Monday, continue to advect in cold dry air. Highs
will remain below normal in the low 40s and morning lows in the mid
20s. Temperatures will start to warm back to near normal as the
upper-flow begins to become more zonal Tuesday into the middle of
the week. While ridging begins to develop over the central and
eastern two-thirds another area of sfc high pressure will build in
over the Ohio Valley Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will
remain near or slightly above normal ranging from the upper 40s on
Wednesday to the low mid 50s on Friday with overnight lows mid 20s
to low 30s.

There continues to be strong model uncertainty with the next
possible system for the start of next weekend. While both the
EURO/GFS deterministic show a potential cutoff low developing in
southern stream of the jet, they differ significantly on propagation
and even the development of the next system for Saturday. For now
stayed with NBM guidance which is trending closer to the EURO
solution for this time frame with increasing PoPs for Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1201 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Widespread MVFR with occasional IFR cigs currently overspread the
region ahead of a cold front. Radar returns are generally quiet over
southern IN and central KY at this hour, but showers and storms will
increase in coverage later this afternoon as the cold front pushes
in from the west. Some of the storms could be strong or severe, with
very brief but gusty (+40kt) westerly to southwesterly winds
possible along the leading edge of the storms. More likely, cigs/vis
will be greatly impacted by the storms, and this has been reflected
in the TAFs.

Drier air moves in behind the cold front tonight, lifting cigs/vis
to VFR levels. Winds will stay out of the northwest through the
remainder of the period behind the front.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...BTN
Long Term...DM
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
442 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-029>043-045>049-056-057-102145-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Bullitt-
Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott KY-Harrison KY-
Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-
Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Garrard-Madison-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Lancaster, and Richmond
442 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 /342 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong weather system will move through the region this evening.
Widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds
being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from southwest to northeast between 40 and 50 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ054-055-065>067-077-078-081-082-102145-
Marion-Boyle-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Lebanon, Danville, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
442 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 /342 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023/

...TORNADO WATCH 715 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/
TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong weather system will move through the region this evening.
Widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds
being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from southwest to northeast between 40 and 50 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ026>028-053-061>064-070>076-102145-
Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Larue-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Including the cities of Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown,
Hodgenville, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg,
Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville,
Glasgow, Tompkinsville, and Edmonton
442 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 /342 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023/

...TORNADO WATCH 714 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong weather system will move through the region this evening.
Widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds
being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from southwest to northeast between 40 and 50 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
235 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

KYZ028-029-045-092000-
Bullitt KY-Nelson KY-Hardin KY-
235 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NELSON...BULLITT
AND NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EST...

At 234 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Elizabethtown, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Pioneer Village, Radcliff, Mount
Washington, Hillview, Vine Grove, Lebanon Junction, Hebron Estates
and Fox Chase.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 8555 3803 8550 3801 8551 3797 8546
      3796 8543 3790 8537 3774 8594 3783 8600
      3788 8598 3792 8598 3809 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 240DEG 48KT 3786 8591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
349 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

KYZ033-037-092115-
Henry KY-Harrison KY-
349 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EST...

At 349 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Owenton, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Corinth, Monterey, Slabtown, Fallis, Lockport, Orville, Gest and
Bethlehem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3856 8440 3848 8455 3842 8488 3839 8490
      3838 8489 3837 8487 3835 8488 3837 8491
      3834 8501 3840 8507 3848 8497 3846 8495
      3844 8496 3843 8496 3843 8494 3846 8492
      3845 8491 3843 8491 3843 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 231DEG 52KT 3843 8488

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
438 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

KYZ029-030-034-038-045-092215-
Jefferson KY-Shelby KY-Bullitt KY-Spencer KY-Nelson KY-
438 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SPENCER...WEST CENTRAL SHELBY...
NORTH CENTRAL NELSON...SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND CENTRAL BULLITT
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EST...

At 438 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shepherdsville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shepherdsville, Pioneer Village, Taylorsville, Mount Washington,
Hillview, Hebron Estates, Fox Chase, Hunters Hollow, Wakefield and
Yoder.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 8575 3806 8578 3820 8542 3795 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 249DEG 37KT 3801 8571

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJP