Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
725 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Key Messages:

- Showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening.

- Hot and Humid tomorrow with heat indices 104-110F in the afternoon.
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Now through Tonight... Temperatures are in the low 90s currently and
dew points are in the mid 70s, which means heat indices are in the
low-mid 100s in the western two-thirds of the CWA and upper 90s in
the eastern third. There was a decent storm that formed over
Southern Indiana and tracked over Jefferson and into Shelby
counties. We received some pea size hail reports and brief 30kt
gusts. The potential for storms will continue into this afternoon
and evening due to ample low-level moisture transport, although
there is a lack of forcing at mid-levels. Most model guidance
suggest the development of isolated-scattered showers and storms
this afternoon around 21Z and lasting through the evening. If a more
mature storm forms and develops a decent cold pool, this could surge
and create a high potential for storms to move south of the
Bluegrass PKWY. However, this is somewhat unlikely due to very weak
deep layer shear, which will prevent the organization of storms.
Storms are likely to stay sub-severe and the main concerns are heavy
rainfall (given PWATS near 2.0 inches), locally gusty winds, and
frequent lightning.

Storms will move through the region and dissipate around 04-06Z. The
rest of the night will be mostly dry, leaving in 15-20% PoPs until
sunrise for any lingering isolated showers. Cloud coverage will
stick around for most of the night and coupled with mid-high 70s dew
points, low temperatures in the morning are expected to be in the
mid-upper 70s.

Tomorrow... We will remain dry tomorrow with the upper-level ridge
over the region. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-
upper 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s. This will bring heat
indices into the mid-upper 100s. A heat advisory is out for the
entire CWA for tomorrow. Depending on the amount of convection we
receive tonight, this could bring down high temperatures tomorrow a
degree or two. However, it would not be enough to drop the heat
advisory. Tomorrow will be hot and humid. Be sure to stay hydrated,
wear protective gear, and find AC whenever possible.

Forecast Confidence... Confidence in storm development in the
afternoon and evening hours is low-medium. Confidence in
temperatures and heat indices for tomorrow is high.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Key Messages:

- Hottest temperatures of the season Fri, possibly continuing into
Sat.

- Increased precip chances later Saturday & early Sunday

- Relief from the heat Sunday through early next week,
hotter with possible MCS activity by mid next week
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday Night - Sunday...

Our CWA will be sandwiched between the NE periphery of a strong
upper ridge, and a stronger belt of westerlies to the north. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will sink southward through our region
later Saturday into early Sunday. Tough to nail down particulars on
the shower and storm chances, however confidence is highest in the
later Saturday/early Sunday time frame just ahead of the sagging
cold front. Deep layer shear looks pretty marginal in the 20-25 knot
range, however should be unstable enough (1500-2000 J/KG) to support
a few stronger storms in more of a pulse mode.

The bigger story for Saturday will likely be the continued heat and
humidity ahead of any shower or storm development. With highs in the
mid 90s and dew points continuing in the low to mid 70s, heat
indices will once again be in the low 100s to around 105 degrees. At
this point, think it is pretty likely that we will need an
additional day of heat headlines, but still have to wade through
some lower confidence in convective potential that could bust a temp
forecast.

Showers and storm chances linger into the first part of Sunday,
however expect the bulk of the day to be drier in a post-frontal
regime, and with surface high pressure starting to build in. Most
likely place for any showers or storms would be in our south and
east CWA. Highs will be notably cooler, back in the mid 80s for most.

Monday - Thursday...

The upper pattern transitions to a NW flow regime through the early
to mid week time frame. This will result in a "cooler" stretch of
weather on Monday and Tuesday as highs stay in the mid and upper
80s, respectively. However, heat will begin to build again by
Wed/Thursday as we likely find our way back into the low 90s.
Previous discussions have noted that this pattern would allow for
some MCS potential to develop upstream and move into our region.
This is still the case, and think the most likely timeframe this
could happen would be in the Wed/Thur time frame where models seem
more active with mid level disturbances embedded in the flow. Can't
rule out some upstream activity earlier in the week, however with
surface high pressure more established over our area, an MCS
surviving into this environment would be a little less likely.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Discussion...VFR conditions will predominate during this TAF period.
Current regional radar shows widely scattered storms along northern
Kentucky and southern Indiana. Most of this activity is expected to
stay far enough away from the terminals and decided to only mention
VCTS for SDF and LEX during the first two hours of the forecast.
However, an amendment or two might be necessary should convection
moves farther south. Then, calm weather will return for the
overnight hours along with light southerly flow. Tomorrow will be
another hot and humid day with mostly dry weather in place.

Extended Outlook...Another round of showers and storms could move in
to the TAF area Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ Friday for KYZ023>035-
     038-039-045-053-061>063-070>074.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/
     Friday for KYZ036-037-040>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-
     075>078-081-082.

IN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ Friday for INZ076>079-
 083-084-089>092.

&&

Short Term...SRM
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...ALL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
352 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

KYZ036-037-040>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082-282000-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Washington KY-
Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Cynthiana, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville,
Winchester, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Greensburg,
Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Tompkinsville, Edmonton,
Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
352 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 /252 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 10 PM EDT
/9 PM CDT/ FRIDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight.
Storms may produce heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s heading into the
first part of the weekend, which will result in heat index values
exceeding 105 on Friday. Saturday heat indices could exceed 100
degrees, but may be mitigated by showers and storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms this evening will move to the southeast at 15 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038-039-045-053-061>063-
070>074-282000-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson KY-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Spencer-Anderson-Nelson-Larue-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Bardstown, Hodgenville, Morgantown, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, and Glasgow
352 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 /252 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ FRIDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight
and may produce heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s heading into the
first part of the weekend, which will result in heat index values
exceeding 105 on Friday. Saturday heat indices could exceed 100
degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms this evening will move to the southeast at 15 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

SRM/BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
614 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

KYZ037-043-272300-
Nicholas KY-Harrison KY-
614 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NICHOLAS AND EAST CENTRAL
HARRISON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 613 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Carlisle, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Barefoot, Blue Licks Springs, Weston, Ellisville, Pleasant
Valley, Headquarters, Sprout, Barterville and Myers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8385 3829 8412 3831 8413 3848 8415
      3848 8413 3846 8410 3844 8402 3843 8400
      3842 8400 3844 8398 3843 8395 3836 8392
      3836 8389 3835 8390 3836 8387 3833 8386
      3834 8384 3832 8385 3831 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 264DEG 12KT 3841 8406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
709 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

KYZ037-043-280000-
Nicholas KY-Harrison KY-
709 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NICHOLAS AND
NORTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 708 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Cynthiana, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Oddville, Ellisville, Pleasant Valley, Headquarters,
Claysville, Antioch, Myers, Barefoot and US Route 62 at State Route
19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 8391 3843 8438 3857 8430 3858 8424
      3857 8420 3856 8422 3855 8421 3855 8416
      3852 8418 3850 8418 3850 8416 3849 8417
      3843 8400 3842 8400 3844 8397 3836 8392
      3836 8389 3835 8390 3836 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 292DEG 19KT 3849 8425

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
723 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

KYZ036-037-280015-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-
723 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SCOTT AND WESTERN
HARRISON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Owenton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sadieville, Berry, Colemansville, Alberta, Renaker, Rutland, Boyd,
Stonewall, Davis and Double Culvert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 8444 3835 8474 3843 8462 3849 8456
      3851 8452 3851 8449 3854 8448 3853 8445
      3857 8441 3856 8439 3857 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 271DEG 16KT 3846 8476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJ