Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Louisville, KY

337 
WGUS73 KLMK 190207
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1007 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

KYC111-185-211-190217-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-230719T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson KY KY-Oldham KY-Shelby KY-
1007 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON KY, SOUTHERN OLDHAM AND CENTRAL SHELBY 
COUNTIES...

Flood waters are receding. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3834 8543 3830 8520 3826 8507 3818 8503
      3812 8514 3815 8542 3816 8560 3826 8566
      3828 8571 3830 8568 3836 8564

$$

BJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
713 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 600 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Leading line of convection is weakening over south-central Kentucky,
but could still support a wind and marginal hail threat as the
environment ahead of the line remains very moist and unstable.
Mainly making adjustments to WW 511 over its final couple of hrs.

Some concern about flash flooding, as the comma head of the MCV
seems to be situated just east of Owensboro, and the potential is
setting up for training cells on a WNW-ESE axis from there.  That
zone lies just north and east of our existing Flood Watch, so we'll
monitor the need to do an expansion of that headline during the
early evening.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Key Messages:

- Severe storms with a significant wind threat through early evening
- Heavy rain and flash flooding possible overnight in south-central
Kentucky

MCV is fueling a mature MCS that has crossed the Mississippi River
into western Kentucky, and should continue to plow eastward into a
ridiculously moist and unstable environment. With mixed-layer CAPE
over 3000 J/kg, DCAPE up to 1200-1300 J/kg, and 40 kt of line-normal
deep-layer shear, a significant wind threat is on the table with
localized hurricane-force gusts possible. The above mentioned shear
is also supporting a few supercells ahead of the line, so large hail
is also in play and a tornado can't be ruled out either. This line
should push through rather quickly, clearing the I-65 corridor
around 7 PM EDT and the I-75 corridor closer to 8-9 PM EDT.

Once this system clears, we'll have a break in the action during the
latter part of the evening, with storms re-developing along a
boundary paralleling I-24 after midnight.  This action will lift far
enough NE to get into south-central Kentucky, including Bowling
Green, in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Training cells are a risk
with the effective boundary nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft,
and rain production will be quite efficient. Widespread 1-2 inch
rain totals will be prevalent, with localized amounts of 3 to 5+
inches possible. WPC's Moderate risk of excessive rainfall appears
well placed, nosing into south-central Kentucky. A Flood Watch
has been issued for this area until 15Z Wednesday, and while the
heavy rain will most likely be suppressed into Tennessee by 12Z,
flood impacts could linger for a few hrs.

Low-confidence forecast for Wednesday as so much depends on the
evolution of the second system tonight, which has yet to develop.
Lingering clouds will create some temperature bust potential and
could also fuel isolated to scattered storms. Think the better
chances are Wednesday night, but really any thunderstorm in a juicy
summer environment carries the standard pulse threats of locally
gusty winds and heavy rain. One thing we are certain about is that
it will remain warm and muggy.

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Key Messages:

 - Unstable pattern continues Wednesday night into Thursday with
additional waves of showers and storms expected. Strong to severe
storms are possible with heavy rainfall possibly producing localized
flooding.

 - Transition to drier weather begins on Friday with lingering rain
and a few storms possible.

 - Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry conditions expected for
much of the weekend.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

The first 36 hours of the extended forecast period will feature the
most active weather as shortwave troughs continue to intermittently
slide southeastward along the southern edge of large-scale troughing
over the eastern half of North America. As these mid- and upper-
level disturbances slide through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, waves
of showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday night into
Thursday across central KY and southern IN. With fast flow aloft for
mid-summer, dynamic support should be sufficient for organized
convection as these waves pass through. Thermodynamic support will
bounce up and down as waves of convection temporarily stabilize the
atmosphere, although things should quickly recover given the amount
of moisture available and any insolation. Estimated timing on any
one wave of storms is difficult to predict, and hi-res guidance will
likely continue to struggle until antecedent waves of storms begin
to fire.

From an ingredients perspective, Thursday has considerable potential
for strong to severe storms as short-to-medium range progs depict
several thousand joules of CAPE with 35-45 kt of effective shear.
Drier air in the mid-levels would increase the potential for gusty
winds in any stronger storms with RAP soundings showing over 1200
J/kg DCAPE. In addition to the severe potential, locations which
experience multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could see flash
flooding issues, although storms should generally be fairly
progressive with stronger flow aloft.

As we head into the day on Friday, latest model guidance has slowed
the progression of drier air into the region, and a final mid-level
shortwave will attempt to swing across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys Friday morning. Have increased PoPs farther north on Friday,
though the best chance for any lingering showers and storms will
still be across south central KY where the better moisture will
reside. A final sfc frontal boundary will move through the area on
Friday, with drier air and lower PWATs helping to bring rain chances
to an end as we head into the upcoming weekend.

Much of the upcoming weekend looks dry with slightly below normal
temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday. As the large scale trough
deamplifies over the eastern CONUS early next week, temperatures
should be on the upswing once again as height increases promote a
return to a more typical summertime pattern. At this time, more
typical daytime shower and thunderstorm chances should return for
the first half of next week, with temperatures expected to be around
climatological norms for late July.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Showers and storms are slowly pushing off to the east of the region
this evening and should give way to a lull in precipitation activity
for at least the first part of the overnight hours. Another round of
heavy rain and storms is expected to develop after midnight, mainly
across western KY into southern KY and middle TN. Latest trends have
taken this line of showers/storms a bit farther south than afternoon
forecasts, so have trended things a little better for the TAFs but
will continue to watch closely.

Otherwise, IFR to MVFR stratus is expected to develop toward dawn
tomorrow and persist through a good part of the morning hours. This
should lift to VFR levels by the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...CSG
Aviation...DM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ030>043-047>049-056-057-191830-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Jefferson KY-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Garrard-Madison-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Lancaster, and Richmond
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 /130 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered strong storms will be possible this afternoon. Locally
gusty winds and hail will be the main threats in addition to very
heavy downpours and lightning.

Additional thunderstorms are possible after midnight, and
could produce brief downpours and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday ahead of a cold front.
Main concerns are damaging winds, hail, and lightning. Areas that
have received previous heavy rainfall may be susceptible to
additional flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Thursday.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms this afternoon and tonight will move from west to east around
20 to 30 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ023>025-028-029-045-046-053>055-063>067-074>078-081-082-191830-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Hardin-Bullitt-Nelson-Washington KY-Larue-
Marion-Boyle-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg,
Brandenburg, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Bardstown, Springfield,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Horse Cave, Greensburg,
Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton,
Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023 /130 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon.
Damaging winds will be the main threat, with large hail and frequent
lightning also possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out either.

After midnight tonight more storms are expected, with brief downpours
and frequent lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Thursday ahead of a cold
front. Main concerns are damaging winds, hail, and lightning. Areas
that have received previous heavy rainfall may be susceptible to
additional flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Thursday.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms this afternoon and tonight will move from west to east around
20 to 30 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ026-027-061-062-070>073-191830-
Ohio-Grayson-Butler-Edmonson-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Including the cities of Hartford, Leitchfield, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
and Scottsville
130 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon.
Damaging winds will be the main threat, with large hail and frequent
lightning also possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out either.

After midnight tonight more storms are expected. Torrential rains and
flash flooding will be the main threats but some storms may also
produce locally gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Thursday ahead of a cold
front. Main concerns are damaging winds, hail, and lightning. Areas
that have received previous heavy rainfall may be susceptible to
additional flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times through Thursday.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms this afternoon and tonight will move from west to east around
20 to 30 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RAS/CSG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
613 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

KYZ024-028-182245-
Hardin KY-Breckinridge KY-
613 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL HARDIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT/545 PM CDT/...

At 613 PM EDT/513 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles southeast of Hardinsburg, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dyer, Constantine, Hudson, Howe Valley, Vertrees, Buras, High Plains
Corner, Locust Hill, Graysville and Big Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT/800 PM
CDT/ for central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 8638 3781 8608 3761 8603 3764 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 256DEG 17KT 3770 8626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
617 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

INZ084-090-KYZ025-182245-
Crawford IN-Harrison IN-Meade KY-
617 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD AND NORTHERN MEADE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 617 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carefree Town, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Corydon, Carefree Town, Leavenworth, New Middletown, Alton, Laconia,
New Amsterdam, Roberta, Battletown and Fredonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 8640 3822 8601 3800 8608 3811 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 282DEG 35KT 3816 8635

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
628 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

KYZ045-046-053>055-064>066-075>078-081-082-182330-
Russell KY-Washington KY-Casey KY-Clinton KY-Boyle KY-Metcalfe KY-
Monroe KY-Marion KY-Cumberland KY-Taylor KY-Nelson KY-Larue KY-
Adair KY-Green KY-
628 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL NELSON...
SOUTHEASTERN LARUE...MARION...RUSSELL...TAYLOR...CASEY...ADAIR...
CLINTON...CENTRAL GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN BOYLE AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 730
PM EDT/630 PM CDT/...

At 627 PM EDT/527 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Hodgenville to 7 miles
southwest of Columbia to 7 miles east of Red Boiling Springs.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Campbellsville, Lebanon, Columbia, Springfield, Greensburg,
Albany, Jamestown, Burkesville and Leslie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT/800 PM
CDT/ for south central and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8561 3709 8539 3756 8572 3780 8521
      3723 8474 3712 8490 3705 8491 3700 8484
      3699 8485 3695 8491 3696 8495 3692 8496
      3686 8506 3676 8500 3670 8502 3666 8500
      3662 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 251DEG 34KT 3751 8580 3705 8543 3657 8572

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
637 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     New Salisbury           38.31N 86.10W
07/18/2023                   Harrison           IN   Public

            One tree down along Highway 135 south of New
            Salisbury. Time estimated by radar. Report
            via twitter.

&&

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
639 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

KYZ029-030-182315-
Jefferson KY-Bullitt KY-
639 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN BULLITT COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 639 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Valley Station, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Shively, Shepherdsville, Pioneer Village, Audubon Park,
Watterson Park, Lynnview, Hollow Creek, Hollyvilla and Poplar Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 8551 3798 8562 3806 8592 3809 8591
      3813 8591 3821 8587 3823 8585
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 292DEG 25KT 3813 8583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
710 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

KYZ055-056-066-067-182345-
Boyle KY-Lincoln KY-Garrard KY-Casey KY-
710 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LINCOLN...GARRARD...
BOYLE AND NORTHERN CASEY COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 710 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Danville, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Danville, Stanford, Lancaster, Mccreary, Junction City, Boneyville,
Alum Springs, Caldwell Manor, Parksville and Marksbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 8436 3750 8435 3747 8437 3748 8443
      3747 8445 3749 8493 3763 8497 3775 8459
      3774 8459 3773 8457 3777 8453 3775 8450
      3773 8450 3771 8448 3770 8445 3768 8447
      3766 8443 3762 8442 3759 8437 3754 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 259DEG 42KT 3758 8487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJP