Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
326 PM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Look for light snow showers continuing through
Thursday afternoon. Winds will be locally breezy to windy with
patchy blowing and drifting snow. Another system looms on the
horizon, moving across the central part of the state later this
weekend bringing the potential for another round of moderate to
heavy snow accumulation for portions of southern Lander/Eureka,
White Pine, and northern Nye counties. This will combine with
breezy to windy conditions, bringing additional blowing and
drifting snow.

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.UPDATE...Canceled all headline winter products early as radar is
showing scattered snow showers with light accumulations expected.
All text products have been sent.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM PST Wed Feb 22 2023/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Current synoptic
situation is showing a large upper trough over the western United
States at this time. This low pressure system is expected to
consolidate and shift south through the short term. At this time,
scattered snow showers are pushing across the area. This has
brought little to no accumulations to the area. Expect the
activity to continue in this evening. Winds will be breezy in
spots, leading to patchy blowing and drifting snow. Overnight lows
will be in the single digits to teens.

For Thursday and Thursday night. Upper low pressure system will
rotate near the western shores of California, dropping southward
through the day. Scattered snow showers are expected throughout
the day with up to an inch possible in some of the heavier snow
showers in the valleys, while some of the higher passes and
summits will receive several inches. Breezy to locally windy
conditions will exist, bringing another round of patchy blowing
and drifting snow to the area. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s.
Look for the upper low to continue its southward progression for
Thursday night. This will bring light accumulations of a trace to
less than a half inch in the valleys. Overnight lows will be in
the single digits and teens.

LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.

Friday the beginning of a potential significant storm will unfold
in areas south of and including US-50, in central Nevada. An
upper-level low will begin to dig south off the coastal US. Models
and ensembles are in fairly good agreement of the low being
positioned off the southern CA coastline Friday, and nearing the
Baja Peninsula by Saturday. Moisture will be drawn in from the
Pacific ocean leading to an ample amount for snowfall into
northern Nye county. Conservative thinking is Tonopah will see 6
inches over 2 days, with the bulk of it falling Friday. Winds will
also be elevated when this snow is expected to fall. NBM Ensemble
guidance currently shows a 76% chance of sustained winds of at
least 30 mph, with gusts higher than that. Blowing and drifting
snow will be a concern, and will likely present challenging travel
conditions. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for NW Nye
county Friday afternoon through early Sunday morning.

After the system moves out of the area heading into Sunday
morning, a cold front will approach the state from the NW. Some
light snow showers will be possible, mainly across high elevation
mountains. The front will usher in a large open wave trough behind
it, producing more snow showers monday evening through Wednesday.

Highs will be in the 30s and 40s through the middle of next week,
with cooler air working back in Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will
be in the teens and 20s through mid-week, with cooler lows working
back in towards Wednesday.

AVIATION...Most of the -SNSH should be wrapping up, however
there may be some isolated cases of -SNSH throughout the evening
and overnight. Chances at any terminals will be <10% so put VCSH
in TAFS. Some -SNSH will return to the area later in the afternoon
tomorrow.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday
night Northwestern Nye County.

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