Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1236 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will develop daily through
at least Friday, with the heavier showers expected across mainly
Elko county. Potential exist for more servere thunderstorms today
with smail hail and gusty winds likely. Storms that develop over
snow covered mountains will have the potential to cause rapid snow
melt, and further impact creeks, streams and rivers in the coming
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.

Showers are once again expected to build over the stalled frontal
boundary sitting over the central portion of our CWA. Scatter to
isolated thunderstorms are expect to mix-in with these showers as
models see higher CAPE values spread out across Northeastern
Nevada. Potential does exist for these higher CAPE values to
provide enough energy to create isolated severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. However, storms producing small hail and gusty winds
are more likely. On the other hand, heavier rain amounts will also
be likely as models see the frontal boundary feed more moisture
in. As it stands, guidance is seeing heaviest totals focused in
Northern Elko county where half an inch of precipitation is
possible. Flooding potential will be on the rise for the day with
potential for these storms to train over areas and bring isolated
flash flooding. To further chances in the mountains, decent
amounts of snow pack still exist in the high elevations with
locations above 8000 ft still holding double digit snow water
equivalent. These amounts could serve to further increase the
flooding potential as any rain on snow that occurs will lead to
rapid melting of the remaining snow pack. Currently, a Flash Flood
Watch is out for Northern Elko County and Ruby Mountains/East
Humboldt Range until 10 pm tonight as a combination of rapid snow
melt and heavier rainfall are more likely to occur there.

Heading into Thursday, models expect the slow movement of the
trough and it closed upper-level low to keep the frontal boundary
over the Silver State. More showers and thunderstorms will likely
follow for the afternoon. However, latest guidance is expecting
the overall intensity to be lower than these last few days.
Temperature wise, afternoon highs will look to stay in the 60s to
low 70s for today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, overnight lows will
stick in the 40s to 50s for tonight and tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday. All models are
showing a continuation of the active and wet weather we've been
experiencing. The solutions are showing an upper low closing off
and remaining rather stationary over the forecast area. This will
help to keep the threat of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms to much of the area through the long term period.
High temperatures will generally be in the 70s to maybe low 80s,
while overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Breezes are
possible each afternoon with speeds of about 25 mph. A threat for
convective wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail are possible with
any afternoon storm.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will again be
present today and this evening. Overall, main concerns will be
thunderstorms moving on terminal with gusty and erratic outflow
winds of 40+ kts along with brief reductions in visibility from
heavy rainfall resulting in MVFR and possibly IFR conditions.
Small hail is also expected. Thunderstorm and shower induced IMC
can also cause mountain obscurations throughout the region. Active
weather trends lighter overnight with the bulk of the activity
coming to an end by 05Z.

KTPH remains AMD NOT SKED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River and stream flows remain high and swift as
snowpack continues to melt from central and northern Nevada
mountains. A more active weather pattern is forecast to persist
for the week and another round of rain showers and thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon. Probabilities initially remain low
that any given thunderstorm will cause increased hydrologic
impacts. However, slow-moving and training showers and
thunderstorms impacting quicker responding feeder streams may
produce increased flooding concerns, especially Tuesday when
activity looks to be greatest. Given the potential Tuesday, an
EFS/Hydrologic Outlook has been posted for the northeastern and
eastern portions of Elko County. Overall flows should at least
moderate, but slower responding larger streams and rivers will
continue to run high thru mid week. The Humboldt is forecast to
continue to gradually rise into the middle of the week.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Humboldt River at Comus and
remains in minor flood stage.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Humboldt River at Battle
Mountain and remains in minor flood stage.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Bruneau River at Rowland and
remains in minor flood stage.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Marys River at Deeth and
remains in minor flood stage.

Flood Advisories for...
   * Salmon Falls Creek near San Jacinto
   * Lamoille Creek near Lamoille
   * Humboldt River at Palisade
   * Humboldt River at Elko
   * Humboldt River at Carlin

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch until 10 PM PDT this evening Northern Elko County...
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

&&

94/86/86

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
133 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023

NVZ037-242100-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County NV-
133 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Eureka
County through 200 PM PDT...

At 132 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Garden Pass, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Brief heavy rainfall along with gusty winds could knock
         down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Garden Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 11618 3977 11629 3998 11606 3986 11591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 224DEG 21KT 3979 11616

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

98

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
140 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023

NVZ037-242115-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County NV-
140 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Eureka
County through 215 PM PDT...

At 140 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grass Valley, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Brief heavy rainfall along with gusty winds could knock
         down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Eureka
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 11648 3986 11658 4004 11653 3999 11633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 208DEG 15KT 3990 11651

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

98

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
142 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023

NVZ037-242115-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County NV-
142 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Lander
and southwestern Eureka Counties through 215 PM PDT...

At 142 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hickison Summit, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Brief heavy rainfall along with gusty winds could knock
         down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hickison Summit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3932 11674 3937 11688 3954 11685 3951 11654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 207DEG 15KT 3941 11676

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

98