Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1117 AM PDT Sun Sep 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms continue
through the Labor Day weekend. Flooding remains a concern through
late Monday morning. In addition, some storms may be strong to
severe through the early evening, which may lead to wind gusts to
60 mph and hail one inch or larger. Monday and Tuesday night will
see cooler temps. Tuesday brings drier conditions through the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Radar continues to be
active with various short fused products out at this time. Main
story is the upper level low, abundant subtropical moisture, and a
cold front that will continue to impact the weather across
northern and central Nevada this evening into tomorrow. Overnight
lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

For Monday and Monday night. All model solutions are showing the
departure of the upper low. In its wake, northwest to west flow
will commence. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can
be expected for portions of northeast Nevada where residual
moisture remains. In this same area, northwest winds 10 to 20 mph
with gusts to 30 mph are possible. In other locations winds are
expected to remain light. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s.
Clear and cool conditions expected for Monday night. Some locales
may see the mid 30s, and frost/freeze products may be required.
Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday

A quick moving weak shortwave upper trough will transit northern
NV Tuesday this trough will not have much to work with in the way
of moisture but it may generate a few showers across northern Elko
County before it departs. Wednesday, models support the upper
level ridge building back westward into southern Arizona. This
will keep NV under SW flow aloft, but the forecast position of the
high will help to quiet things down and keep thing dry for the
rest of the week into next weekend. A warming trend will start
Tuesday as highs warm back into upper 70s to upper 80s by the
weekend. Overnight lows will need to be watched for the
possibility of frost, especially Tuesday morning as lows look to
be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Lows will start to recover back into
the low 40s to low 50s as the ridge builds west.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
for all terminals through Monday. Upper Trough will be generating
areas of showers and thunderstorms today and will continue through
Monday morning with all sites seeing good chances for impacts.
There is a threat for severe weather today with KWMC, KBAM, and
KTPH seeing a marginal risk, and KEKO and KELY seeing a slight
risk. Main hazards will be strong winds, large hail and heavy
rainfall. Terminals that experience storms will see short term
drops in conditions to MVFR to even IFR levels. Winds will
continue to be elevated, with S/SW winds of 20-30 KTS across
central Nevada terminals KTPH and KELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Northern and central Nevada has received decent
amounts of precipitation. Amounts on automated gauges are in the
one-tenth to one-quarter range, though locally higher amounts of
over an inch have been seen. Given this good showing, fire weather
conditions remain on the quiet side as overnight relative humidity
recoveries are excellent. Winds will remain breezy at times with
speeds up to 25 mph.The rain is forecast to come to an end Monday
with a day of cooler weather on Tuesday as highs barely climb into
the 60s. A warmup ensures during the middle portion of the week
though conditions are expected to remain dry.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Monday morning Humboldt County...
Northeastern Nye County...Northern Elko County...Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...South Central Elko
County...Southeastern Elko County...Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine
County.

&&

86/98/98/86

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