Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
138 PM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong area of high pressure building over the state will lead
to hot temperatures and dry conditions persisting through the
weekend. Isolated dry thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon
and evening for eastern and central NV. High pressure weakens
early next week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms over
portions of eastern NV Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night

Mid to high level clouds will increase this afternoon and evening
along with a 15-20% chance of isolated dry thunderstorms mainly
in eastern Elko and northern White Pine Counties. Otherwise, a
strong ridge of high pressure influences the silver state with hot
and dry conditions persisting for the rest of the weekend.
Overnight lows tonight will be in the 60s before climbing up in
the mid 90s to low 100s Sunday afternoon under party cloudy
skies. Current heat products remain in effect for much of the
northern and central NV. Additionally, model solutions are showing
a weak upper-level disturbance moving northward from the western
edge of the ridge. Mid-level moisture combined with weak
instability will bring a 10-15% chance of isolated dry
thunderstorms mainly in eastern Elko County and portions of White
Pine County. Winds will be light early in the day before picking
up in the afternoon out of the west-southwest 10-15 mph with gusts
approaching 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday

Monday and Tuesday, upper ridge will begin its slow eastward
drift away from NV with heights slowly relaxing over the area,
upper level flow will still be out of the south to southwest with
central NV seeing more southerly flow, and northern NV seeing SW
flow aloft. Quiet and hot conditions will be the story for this
part of the forecast as highs will be in the mid 90s to mid 100s,
with overnight lows in the 60s to 70s. A Excessive Heat Warning
remains in effect for SE Elko county through Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Thursday: Upper ridge continues its eastward slide
with the center of the ridge taking up residence over central New
Mexico, as the high shifts, flow around the upper high will allow
for the southerly flow aloft to lift monsoonal moisture from
southern Arizona into NE Nevada. This will give the possibility
for some isolated thunderstorm chances to return to the area.
Initially these chances will be limited to the UT/NV border areas
in central NV, but as upper flow persists, better mid level
moisture should work northwestward to give areas generally east of
Battle Mountain a chance of showers by Thursday afternoon. After
Friday, model agreement begins to break down as the upper ridge
tries to build southwestward, some model solutions cut of the
moisture supply, while some solutions allow for continued moisture
advection and shower chances. The one point of agreement is that
the ridge will remain just far enough away to keep temperatures
near to or slightly above normal. Given the increasing clouds and
moisture daytime highs will be cooling Tuesday through Thursday,
back into the upper 80s to upper 90s for most, with lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds look to be breezy SW with speeds ranging
from 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH in the afternoons,
before dropping to 5 MPH to 10 MPH during the overnights.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals through
Monday. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA continue to be possible during the
late afternoon and evening hours for east-central NV. With KBAM,
KEKO, and KELY having the best chance of receiving brief heavy
rainfall along with gusty outflow winds up to 50KT. Otherwise,
winds will be breezy out of the SW at 10KT to 20KT with gusts up
to 30KT possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms are continuing across
central and eastern NV through this evening. Further isolated
thunderstorms can be expected in eastern and central NV for
Sunday. These thunderstorms will be dry to a mix of wet and dry.
Conditions remain favorable that any thunderstorm can produce
strong and erratic outflow winds. Southerly to Southwesterly in
central NV and southwesterly to westerly in northern NV gusty
winds in the 20s to 30s mph range is expected for both Sunday and
Monday across all fire zones. Very low RH of single digits to
teens is expected across all fire zones for Sunday. Monday will
see moisture push into central to eastern NV with min RH
increasing to the teens and low twenties, however NW NV including
all Humboldt county will still remain in the single digit RH.
Otherwise very hot conditions will prevail with heat advisory
remaining in effect for most of NV through Sunday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday Humboldt County...
Northeastern Nye County...Northern Elko County...Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...
South Central Elko County...Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County...Southwest Elko County.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Monday Southeastern Elko
County.

&&

90/98/98/99