Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Forecast seems pretty on track so far today. Only change was a
slight bump up in temperatures in the Florida parishes and
southwest Mississippi due to the clouds clearing out. That should
lead to more efficient warming throughout the day today. Places
along and north of I-12 could see daily maximum temperature
records broken. Locations where the clouds clear out will see the
best warming today, which at this time looks to be spots that will
come close to daily records. (Zeringue)

 &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Upper low currently over northeast Iowa has produced an abundance
of severe weather well to our north over the last 12 hours. The
next in a series of shortwaves was moving onto the southern
California coast early this morning. The lead cold front was
moving into northwest Louisiana early this morning, with a
stronger front moving into northwest Arkansas.

Locally, temperatures were in the lower and middle 70s at 3 AM
CDT, with dew points near 70. Scattered showers were increasing in
coverage across northwest portions of our area northwest of McComb
and Baton Rouge. No lightning indicated yet, but it certainly
can't be entirely ruled out.

Main forecast question for the next 36 hours is how far southward
the front eventually gets. Upper flow will be primarily zonal
along the northern Gulf Coast with upper ridging to our south over
the Gulf. The cold front may make it TO the Louisiana coast, but
not much further before becoming stationary or washing out as any
upper support pulls away from the area. Scattered showers and
perhaps a couple of thunderstorms will continue to shift
southeastward this morning, but will likely dissipate by midday.
Drying will move into about the northern half of the area, but dew
points below 60 degrees might not make it any further than
Interstate 10 during the day today. Perhaps a little more progress
southward overnight tonight of that line, before it begins to
return northward as a warm front later in the day Sunday.

The southern California shortwave will race eastward increasing
the low level moisture as it approaches late in the day on Sunday.
The day should start out mostly sunny, but we'll see clouds
increase across the area late in the day.

Temperatures the next couple days are going to be tricky, as
exactly where the frontal boundary ends up, and the dry air north
of the front, will determine how much cooling occurs. 25 to 50
miles off in the location could mean 5-10 degrees difference. Will
trend toward the warmer highs, and accept the general guidance
trends overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Upper low currently over northeast Iowa has produced an abundance
of severe weather well to our north over the last 12 hours. The
next in a series of shortwaves was moving onto the southern
California coast early this morning. The lead cold front was
moving into northwest Louisiana early this morning, with a
stronger front moving into northwest Arkansas.

Locally, temperatures were in the lower and middle 70s at 3 AM
CDT, with dew points near 70. Scattered showers were increasing in
coverage across northwest portions of our area northwest of McComb
and Baton Rouge. No lightning indicated yet, but it certainly
can't be entirely ruled out.

Main forecast question for the next 36 hours is how far southward
the front eventually gets. Upper flow will be primarily zonal
along the northern Gulf Coast with upper ridging to our south over
the Gulf. The cold front may make it TO the Louisiana coast, but
not much further before becoming stationary or washing out as any
upper support pulls away from the area. Scattered showers and
perhaps a couple of thunderstorms will continue to shift
southeastward this morning, but will likely dissipate by midday.
Drying will move into about the northern half of the area, but dew
points below 60 degrees might not make it any further than
Interstate 10 during the day today. Perhaps a little more progress
southward overnight tonight of that line, before it begins to
return northward as a warm front later in the day Sunday.

The southern California shortwave will race eastward increasing
the low level moisture as it approaches late in the day on Sunday.
The day should start out mostly sunny, but we'll see clouds
increase across the area late in the day.

Temperatures the next couple days are going to be tricky, as
exactly where the frontal boundary ends up, and the dry air north
of the front, will determine how much cooling occurs. 25 to 50
miles off in the location could mean 5-10 degrees difference. Will
trend toward the warmer highs, and accept the general guidance
trends overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

As the California shortwave continues to race eastward Sunday and
Sunday night, there will be an area of showers and storms
accompanying it. To this point, the models have shown quite a bit
of north-south spread in the track of this system, with the
majority tracking the main area of rain along and north of
Interstate 10, with only light precipitation across the local
area. There have been a few of the models trending toward a bit
more southerly track, and in coordination with our neighbors to
the north and east, have increased rain chances for late Sunday
night about 20 percent from previous forecasts. Still feel the
heavy rain threat will remain north of our area for that
particular system.

Subsidence behind that system will help things heat up for Monday
and Tuesday, with near record highs possible in most areas, with
the possible exception of the Mississippi coast, where the cooling
effect of the early season water temperatures may cut highs off
around 80 degrees.

Another strong northern stream system will push a cold front
toward the area on Wednesday, with another chance at showers and
storms. Beyond that point, significant differences between global
model solutions in where the frontal boundary is located have
produced a large spread in temperatures and rain chances from late
Wednesday onward. With no particularly favored solution at this
time, NBM temperatures and PoPs were followed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Cloud cover associated with a stationary front is continuing to
burn off this afternoon as daytime mixing maximizes. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail at all terminals through today and into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be a little breezy during the day
today due to the mixing, but expect that to die down overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

With frontal boundaries in the area for much of the next week or
so, pressure gradients shouldn't get too strong. There will be
periods where winds may increase into the 15-20 knot range, but
shouldn't get much stronger than that. At present, don't see a
particular period of emphasis on hazardous conditions, but can't
rule out that we may need an advisory at some point during the
early to mid part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  51  76  61 /  20   0  10  50
BTR  86  58  82  67 /  20   0  10  30
ASD  86  57  78  65 /  40   0   0  30
MSY  84  63  79  68 /  40   0  10  20
GPT  83  57  74  65 /  30   0   0  30
PQL  85  54  77  62 /  20   0   0  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...RW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>