Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
318 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Tonight through Friday morning, the ridge influencing the area
will continue to weaken quite a bit. As a result, the boundary of
storms will slowly continue sliding southward into the Gulf over
the next couple of days, which will lower our rainfall chances
across the land areas, but rainfall chances remain enhanced over
the marine waters and coastal land areas especially Thursday
afternoon. These storms will mostly have the potential for locally
heavy rainfall and some gusty sub-severe winds (30-60mph).

The other advantage to the ridge weakening apart from lower
rainfall chances is the likelihood of seeing lower (relatively)
high temperatures and heat index values. High temperatures
tomorrow will be in the low 90s for most locations with heat index
values around 100 degrees, which is more normal for our area and
certainly will feel like a "relief" compared to the last week.
People still should try to stay hydrated and wear loose clothing
as it is still very much Summer. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Moving on from mid to the later half of this week through the
weekend...the upper low centered over the Southeast will gradually
drift northward and finally kick out northeastward late this
weekend. This will allow the upper ridge to the west to expand
eastward. Until then, which is through Saturday, likely still
looking at a threat of scattered to numerous showers and storms with
the potential for localized flash flooding each day. Once that low
moves out and the ridge spreads east by Sunday, the shear axis
between the ridge and low will do the same. We'll see rain chances
drop considerably with POPs Sunday in the 20-30% range. Lower rain
chances and increasing 500mb heights will bring back last week's
very hot conditions. Guidance suggests mid to upper 90s across the
CWA with isolated locations possibly touching the 100 degree mark
which is roughly where record highs sit this time of year. Wouldn't
be surprised if heat advisories are needed by Saturday onward and
possibly excessive heat warning Sunday or Monday as heat indices
rise into the 110+ realm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period at all area airports. Frequent wind
shifts of greater than 30 degrees will be possible at MSY and HUM
throughout the forecast period. Vicinity showers and storms will
be possible at some coastal airports tomorrow early afternoon.
Conditions at HUM will drop to MVFR around daybreak briefly due to
lower ceilings, but will return to VFR after a few hours. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Benign weather conditions for the marine areas throughout the
forecast period are expected. Generally for the next week, winds
will be moderate (<15 knots) and westerly to southwesterly
throughout the forecast period as the Bermuda ridge builds
westward in the Gulf. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  90  69  92 /   0  30  20  40
BTR  75  94  75  95 /  20  40  30  60
ASD  73  93  73  92 /  40  50  50  70
MSY  77  92  77  91 /  20  60  50  70
GPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  60  70
PQL  70  91  71  91 /  40  50  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW