Gale Warning 9, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
359 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

To say the obvious, there is some very strong cold advection and
this looks to continue over the next 24 hours or so. This will help
force temps to the lowest levels so far this fall/winter season.
Some showers with the mid level trough moving through this morning
and that is mostly virga with a few drops making it to the sfc. Will
keep precip numbers where they are for this but a further drying of
these layers is expected and even this light rain will decay through
the morning as high pressure on each side bridge this cold front.
Another surge of dry cool air will be on the march today and should
be here by late tonight. This strong CCA will help bring temps down
to near or just to the freezing mark around sunrise Wed. Personal
opinion is winds will be too strong keeping warmer air mixed to the
sfc. Models have literally been a coin toss for the last 3 days with
freezing temps over the northern tier of counties. But we will
remain with the consensus and the fact is that temps should at least
make it to 33F and pulling straws is not the best thing to do when
there could be impacts to those things that can't tolerate temps
around freezing. This will not be the issue Wed night as temps
should feel the full effects of a good radiation night even if winds
stay around or less than 5kt. There will be some gusty winds today
and as the new surge of air moves in overnight, winds could be
sustained well above 20mph for a few miles inland on the south
shore. This has prompted the issuance of a wind advisory as well for
tonight. The dry and windy conditions will also maintain the fire
ROS problem as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Any chance of rain from Thu on would be in the light form of a
shower or two. But chances will not be on the high side. Winds
ease back and temps begin a warming trend through the end of the
week. The fcast becomes a bit more questionable by the start of
next week as models show either another cold front blasting
through the area or a slower stalling front hanging up to the
north or the area. Both the GFS and EURO are initializing well but
the energy that supports this front is still over NE China and SE
Russia. But the northern H3 jet core will interact with a
southern H3 jet core by the start of next week to at least bring
some upper troughing the the CONUS in some form or another.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

All terminals lower than VFR this morning should be in VFR by
daylight and remain that way this taf cycle. North winds will be the
main issue today and will be quite gusty through the day and again
tonight especially for sites on the lee side of water bodies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Small craft advisories will remain through today but another strong
surge of dry cool air will make its way over the northern gulf this
evening causing winds to rise even further in to gale conditions.
For this, we transitioned the gale watch to a gale warning. And
after that, the SCA will kick back in as winds begin to ease Wed.
Winds and seas will continue to subside through the end of the week
and onshore flow will be back by the beginning of the new work week
and will remain around 10kt for this pack.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  32  57  30 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  60  35  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  61  35  60  34 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  62  45  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  61  38  60  39 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  63  35  60  33 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     LAZ077-078-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE