Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Zones/grids were updated earlier for WW#156, in effect until
07z/02L. Regional 88Ds show a developing MCS approaching our nwrn
zones at this time, and this feature is shown by pretty much all
new guidance to impact some portion of the forecast area through
the overnight hours as it pushes in a general ewd/sewd direction.

Since the zones were updated earlier and no significant changes
are needed at this time, no further updates are planned this
evening.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)

Wx map shows surface high off the Carolinas, and low pressure
over MN with a cold front extending south southwest across the
Midwest through SE OK/N TX. A moderate pressure gradient continues
ahead of the front across the area, with southeast winds 15 mph
with gusts around 20-25 mph. Visible satellite imagery shows
increased cloud cover over Inland Southeast Texas with partly to
mostly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures across the
region upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. Chances of showers
and a few thunderstorms increase across Inland Southeast Texas
later this afternoon.

The mid to upper level trough axis to our west expected to move
further east across the area. Ahead of this, a diffluent region
will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms, which is
ongoing just to our north and west. Expect this area to continue
moving east, with a first round of thunderstorms across Inland
Southeast Texas this evening. By Midnight through the daybreak
hours, another larger MCS from Central Texas expected to move east
southeast across Southeast Texas, Central and Southern Louisiana.
The guidance has gradually shifted southward with the strongest
storm and most precipitation, with the bulk of the thunderstorms
possibly moving across the coastal waters. So, the near term
forecast is quite tricky in that respect. Still expecting around
70-90% chance of precipitation for the overnight hours, spreading
east after daybreak. Another round of thunderstorms will be
possible with the frontal passage by the afternoon hours across
most of the area, still questionable on how much development will
occur after the morning MCS moves through the region.

SPC is maintaining a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
weather west of an Alexandria to Cameron line, with a Marginal
Risk (level 1 out of 5) to the east of this line. The greatest
threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail, with a lower
chance for an isolated tornado or two. After daybreak Friday, the
Marginal Risk is areawide.

In addition, heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding will
also be possible. A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall continues across all of Southeast Texas into Western Louisiana
through daybreak, with the Day 2 outlook for areas across Central
and Southern Louisiana. Area average rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches with localized higher totals can be expected.

The cold front expected to move through the region Friday night/early
Saturday morning time frame, ending the precipitation from north
to south. Cooler and drier air expected behind the front, with
decreasing cloudiness across the area. Expect lows in the lower to
mid 50s north of I-10, upper 50s to near 60 further south.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

SUN will begin cool and dry with high pressure prevailing at the SFC
underneath quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft. Cloud cover is expected
to steadily thicken through the day, with small rain chances across
SE TX and the adjacent Gulf waters entering by afternoon as a
shortwave trof exits the TX coast into the Gulf. This feature is
progged to induce a cluster of TSTMS that are expected to progress
SE across the NW Gulf SUN night, and at this time look to remain
south of our MAOR. Small rain chances will expand across the rest of
the inland forecast area and persist into MON, but generally expect
heaviest rain to remain off to the south. Better rain chances are on
tap TUE as a lead shortwave trof axis pivots across the area, with
the forecast beyond this point becoming more uncertain and dependent
on the evolution of the upstream parent trof. Given this
uncertainty, saw little reason to deviate from the NBM.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

A mesoscale convective complex of thunderstorms is presently
pushing into Southeast Texas where it is impacting BPT. This
complex will continue East impacting the Louisiana terminals
through the early morning. Torrential rainfall, gusty winds and
small hail will be possible with cells within this complex. The
complex will push east of the area by mid morning with a brief
lull in precipitation before another line of showers and
thunderstorms swings quickly through the area along the leading
edge of a cold front during the afternoon and early evening.

Light to moderate Southerly winds will persist outside of
convection with gusty, variable winds near and within storms.
Breezy Northwesterly flow will develop in the wake of the frontal
passage during the afternoon and evening.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure over the Southeast U.S. combined with a surface
low over the Midwest will continue moderate onshore flow through
Friday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase significantly
on Friday ahead and along a cold front, expected to move through
late Friday evening. Strong offshore flow will develop in the
wake of the front Saturday, with winds and seas diminishing by
Sunday. Winds expected to become onshore early next week as the
surface high pressure moves east of the region.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  65  79  51 /  10  80  80  10
LCH  82  68  80  57 /  10  80  70  10
LFT  84  69  79  57 /   0  50  80  20
BPT  82  70  83  58 /  30  80  70   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...66

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

TXZ201-261-515-516-615-616-210615-
Hardin TX-Northern Orange TX-Lower Jefferson TX-Southern Orange TX-
Southern Jasper TX-Upper Jefferson TX-
1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Jefferson, southern Hardin, northwestern Orange and southern Jasper
Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1244 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sour Lake to 7 miles south of Devers.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lumberton, Silsbee, Sour Lake, Nome, Saratoga,
Hamshire, Evadale, Bevil Oaks, China, Rose City, Pine Forest,
Lakeview, Weiss Bluff, Batson, Fannett and La Belle.

This includes Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 858 and
832.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 9404 2981 9405 2985 9436 2989 9436
      2989 9444 3011 9445 3011 9456 3028 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 273DEG 35KT 3019 9443 2992 9454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones

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