Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Scattered showers and severe thunderstorms are currently shift
across the LCH CWA with the stronger storms developing in the
northern counties and Parishes as forecast parameters have indicated
over the last few days. Potential for stronger cells remains over
north/central and eastern portions of the CWA through the diurnal
afternoon hours. By sunset many of the stronger thunderstorms with
associated severe hazards will be lifting to north and eastern
Parishes toward SW MS.

Synoptically, high pressure is currently centered over the Quebec
and the Northeast CONUS with a band of ridging extending along the
East Coast to the Florida Peninsula. High pressure will remain in
place with little weakening through Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile the
Low pressure deepening over the ARKLATEX area will quickly pivot NE
over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning, reaching the Great Lakes
region by mid-afternoon Tuesday.

Within the LCH CWA the Cold Front associated with the aforementioned
low pressure extends down into eastern TX and will continue to shift
east with a SSW to NNE orientation reaching the low Atchafalaya (I-
10/I-49) corridor just prior to midnight Tuesday morning. Behind the
front any severe threat will be rapidly diminish with Parishes on
the central to eastern areas of the Atchafalaya feeling the effects
of the front around midnight. Hereafter behind the front, high
pressure over the Rockies will drive a fairly decent pressure
gradient over TX/LA through Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, small
craft is expected over the 20 – 60NM offshore water zones before
winds gradually ease Wednesday morning and afternoon. Continued CAA
behind the front will knock temperatures down to the 60’s Tuesday
and further into the upper 50’s throughout Wednesday with lows in
the lower 40’s to upper 30’s looking into the northern Parishes that
border into central/northern LA. High pressure will continue to
expand SE following the front and keep conditions dry into Thursday
morning.

Kowalski/30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Continuing further into Thursday, high pressure will broaden out
into the LA Gulf Coast and a brief rebound of temperatures will
start to occur as northerly winds ease while gaining more
northeasterly components. Looking further southwest an upper level
trough over NE Mexico will shift along the TX Gulf Coast. At this
time, surface dynamics aren’t quite supportive of definitive
rainfall, let alone storms, however, forecast sounding indicate the
presence of mid level moisture which may further materialize at the
surface, so POPS were placed back in the forecast to account for
this unresolved feature. It is worth noting long range models are
better supportive of moisture reaching the surface over the Gulf
rather than inland looking at the present guidance. Remainder of the
pattern remains unsettled as split flow continues to suggest some
divergence aloft trending into the later portion of the weekend and
early next work week. Otherwise, most locations will continue to
trend into the 60’s with increased cloud coverage through the
weekend.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Showers and storms will work across the region through the evening
causing periods of lower vis and ceilings. A cold front will work
across the area with winds becoming gusty northwest and ceilings
becoming MVFR or IFR late tonight into Tuesday morning past
sunrise. Ceilings will improve through late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 501 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Winds and seas will increase on today, along with the chance of
showers and thunderstorms, as a surface low deepens over the
southern plains and moves just north of the area. The passage of a
cold front tonight will bring strong and gusty north winds that
will persist through Wednesday morning, and Small Craft Advisory
is in place between 4am Tuesday and 4am Wednesday. Offshore flow
will gradually diminish through the rest of the week.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  51  60  41  58 /  80  10  10  10
LCH  54  62  45  59 /  60   0  10  10
LFT  59  65  46  61 /  80   0  10  10
BPT  54  63  45  62 /  50   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM CST Wednesday for
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
510 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

LAZ073-202345-
West Cameron LA-
510 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH
THROUGH 545 PM CST...

At 510 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sabine National Wildlife, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hackberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2994 9376 3005 9355 3005 9353 2996 9338
      2988 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 239DEG 24KT 2993 9367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Stigger/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
545 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

LAZ027-030-TXZ259-260-210015-
Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
545 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD AND
SOUTHWESTERN VERNON PARISHES...CENTRAL NEWTON AND EAST CENTRAL JASPER
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CST...

At 545 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roganville, or 7 miles southwest of Newton, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
De Ridder, Newton, Kirbyville, Merryville, Bon Weir, Roganville,
Junction, Stringtown, Evans, and Bleakwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for southwestern
and west central Louisiana...and southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 9389 3083 9392 3104 9342 3069 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 252DEG 51KT 3075 9382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

14

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
734 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

LAZ074-210200-
East Cameron LA-
734 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CAMERON PARISH
THROUGH 800 PM CST...

At 734 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grand Chenier, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Chenier, Lowry, Creole, and Rutherford Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2976 9312 2978 9322 3004 9278 2997 9262
      2988 9261 2970 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 237DEG 46KT 2985 9291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Stigger/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
757 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

LAZ029-033-210230-
St. Landry LA-Avoyelles LA-
757 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AVOYELLES AND NORTH
CENTRAL ST. LANDRY PARISHES THROUGH 830 PM CST...

At 757 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cottonport, or 7 miles southwest of Moreauville, moving northeast at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bunkie, Simmesport, Moreauville, Bordelonville, Morrow, Cottonport,
Mansura, Evergreen, Plaucheville, Goudeau, Big Cane, Dupont, Big
Bend, and Hamburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3120 9173 3121 9170 3119 9168 3117 9168
      3116 9170 3114 9172 3110 9170 3109 9172
      3107 9171 3105 9172 3097 9181 3087 9180
      3085 9182 3084 9180 3080 9212 3094 9224
      3122 9175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 241DEG 45KT 3094 9204

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

14

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
802 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

LAZ074-152-243-252-210245-
Upper Vermilion LA-Southern Acadia LA-Lower Vermilion LA-
East Cameron LA-
802 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CAMERON...
SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA AND NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISHES THROUGH 845
PM CST...

At 802 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Lowry, or 9 miles southwest of Klondike, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kaplan, Gueydan, Klondike, Morse, Riceville, Wright, Lyons Point,
Estherwood, and Florence Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2993 9285 3018 9249 3018 9245 2995 9222
      2978 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 245DEG 28KT 2991 9271

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tingler

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