Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
534 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

A large ridge aloft is across the northwestern gulf, central
plains, and into the Rockies. The local area is under the eastern
flank of the ridge, and a disturbance is dropping south through
northern and central LA.

With the sky high temperatures and the slight weakness aloft,
isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms may occur this
afternoon into just after sunset. Some storms may be strong with
gusty winds.

Actual temperatures have increased from yesterday with most
locations around 100F. Just enough mixing has kept apparent temps
down to just slightly higher than the actual temp, however spotty
excessive heat warning criteria is being met. (HI of greater than
113F or temp of greater than 105F).

Tomorrow is expected to be similar, however slightly less mixing
is anticipated. The heat adv has been upgraded to an excessive
heat warning. Not much change will occur into Wednesday with an
excessive heat watch posted.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Excessive heat continues into the long term as the upper level
ridging continues to build and extend further East into our area
towards the beginning of the long term. The strengthened ridge will
keep our high temperature values hovering near or just breaking into
the lower triple digits. However, the center of this upper level
ridge will generally meander back over to the west, allowing for
an increase in afternoon precipitation chances. The POP values
are still with some uncertainty at the end of the long term period
and likely won't act as a good mitigating factor to the heat.

Are we out of the woods yet for our heat index? Sadly, very likely
not. With the presence of a south to southwestern flow pattern at
the surface, moisture advection will allow the continuation of a
raised afternoon heat index values of 105-110, or possibly
slightly higher in some areas.

Lagrange/78

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue through the early evening hours,
affecting BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA. LFT just recently had a wind gust to 46
kts. Outside the TSRA, winds expected to be light and variable
later this evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Surface high pressure remaining anchored over the northern Gulf
of Mexico will maintain a light to occasionally moderate mostly
onshore flow, along with very low seas, through the coming week.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop and meander over
coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76 103  77 103 /  20  20   0  20
LCH  79 100  79  98 /  10  20  10  30
LFT  79 103  80 100 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  78 103  78 101 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-
     241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-
     516-615-616.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-
     201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-
     259-260.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
231 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254-
TXZ201-261-262-515-516-615-616-011945-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern Jefferson Davis-
Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Upper Iberia-Upper St. Mary-
Southern Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-
Lower Vermilion-Lower Iberia-Lower St. Mary-Hardin-Southern Jasper-
Southern Newton-Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson-
Southern Orange-
231 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Max temperatures between 105 and 108 degrees combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s or lower 70s will lead to heat index values peaking
between 110 and 115 degrees across the area this afternoon.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible, with a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather. The main threat will be damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.
   Excessive Heat Watch.

Our heat wave will continue over the region through the coming work
week with heat index values ranging from 105 to 115 degrees each
afternoon...expect additional heat advisories.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop each day next week.
No severe weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TXZ180-259-260-011945-
Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
231 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

Max temperatures between 105 and 108 degrees combined with dewpoints
in the upper 60s or lower 70s will lead to heat index values peaking
between 110 and 115 degrees across the area this afternoon.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible, with a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather. The main threat will be damaging
wind gusts.

It is strongly advised to stay alert to the forecast for potential
upgrades to an Excessive Heat Warning across the rest of the area
today!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.
   Excessive Heat Watch.

Our heat wave will continue over the region through the coming work
week with heat index values ranging from 105 to 115 degrees each
afternoon...expect additional heat advisories.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop each day next week.
No severe weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475-011945-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion and West Cote Blanche Bays-
Atchafalaya and East Cote Blanche Bays-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
231 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible. No severe
weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop each day next week.
No severe weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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