River Flood Warning 65, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
555 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Updated grids/zones earlier for Tornado Watch #32, valid til
05z/23L.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)

Wx map shows high pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast, surface
low over the ArkLaTex, with the cold front extending south TYR to
just west of IAH. The continued tight pressure gradient across the
area keeping south winds 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph at most
observations this afternoon with the Wind Advisory continuing.
Higher gusts likely with the passing TSRA, as noted at New Iberia
with a 47 mph. Radar showing several clusters of showers and
thunderstorms across Southeast Texas, Central and Southern
Louisiana, and adjacent coastal waters out 60 nautical miles.

A robust mid to upper level shortwave/low over West Texas/Oklahoma
panhandle this afternoon will rapidly lift east northeast across
the remainder of North Texas/Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex this
evening, and more northeast across AR/MO early Thursday. This is
continuing to generate sufficient lift, coupled with the
available deep layer moisture off the Gulf, to yield numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon and
expected to continue this evening. Special 19z LCH sounding
indicates the marine layer (at least inland) has eroded away with
the sufficient mixing, Sfc CAPE of 3138 J/kg, PW 1.35", and 1-3km
SRH around 167 m2/s2. SPC continues a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
of severe thunderstorms for most of the area, except Avoyelles
Parish where an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) and points northeast
into NE LA/MS. Damaging wind gusts appear the highest probably of
severe weather threat at 15%, with a 5% on the Tornado threat
along and north of the U.S. 190 corridor in Louisiana, and 10% for
Avoyelles parish.

For precipitation forecasts, WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level
1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall over the area. Preliminarily rainfall
estimates range from 0.5-1.0 inches over SE TX, and 1.0-2.0 inches
for C and S LA, with locally higher amounts possible in the heavier
thunderstorms.

The cold frontal passage will end the precipitation from west to
east over Southeast Texas by sunset, Central and Southwest
Louisiana by late evening, and early Thursday morning over South
Central Louisiana. Some training of the thunderstorms may occur
over Lower Acadiana later this evening/early morning when the
shortwave exits the region and the cold front slows up a bit. Do
expect the front to eventually push through during early Thursday
morning. Clearing skies expected over Southeast Texas, Central and
Southwest Louisiana toward daybreak, coupled with diminishing
winds, may lead to some patchy to areas of fog. Guidance is mixed
with this formation, but will leave patchy fog wording in
forecast.

Decreasing cloudiness expected during the day Thursday over most
of the area, except lower Acadiana region where lingering cloudiness
will linger into the late morning hours. Another deep layer mid/upper
level trough will dig further south across the midwest Thursday
night and Friday. This will set up a more predominate northwest
flow aloft over the region and bring a much stronger cold front
late Thursday night into early Friday morning. No precipitation
expected with this frontal boundary, but will be followed by colder
and drier air filtering across the region.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Surface high pressure begins to settles over the Ark-La-Tex as we
head into the weekend, allowing the pressure gradient to gradually
relax overhead. Aloft, an impressive closed low over the north-
central Gulf will slide east of the region on Sat, allowing
lingering cloud cover to clear out through the mid-day. As a result,
a mostly sunny and somewhat breezy afternoon is on tap, with
afternoon highs topping out in the mid 50s. As winds continue to
relax Sat night, combination of light winds and clear skies will
allow for good radiational cooling, with a light freeze expected to
occur generally along and north of I-10. Heading into Sunday,
surface high pressure becomes situated directly overhead, providing
a very pleasant and seasonal end to the weekend with afternoon highs
expected to top out around 60 degrees area-wide amid sunny skies.

As surface high pressure continues to slide east late Sun, winds
turn back to the south in its wake, allowing for a steady increasing
in low level moisture ahead of our next low pressure system which is
expected to arrive late Mon/early Tues. Cloud cover quickly fills in
overnight Sun into early Mon, followed by a return of isolated to
scattered showers Mon late morning/early afternoon. Rain chances
look best across SE TX on Monday, closer to the approaching low, but
will begin to spread east later in the day into the overnight
period. By early Tues, the next mid/upper level low is expected to
be situated over central TX, while its surface companion will be
near the DFW region with a cold front draped along the S TX coast.
As both of these features slide east through the day Tues, expect
another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Still a bit
too early to determine any further details however, this set up
looks very similar to the last few systems which brought severe
weather to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

23z sfc obs indicated widespread IFR/MVFR conditions across the
area terminals, while local 88D imagery showed numerous
showers/thunderstorms associated with approaching shortwave/sfc
boundary ongoing. All previous trends were carried over with this
TAF package, with low ceilings continuing post-fropa before
lifting/scattering later tonight. Elevated srly winds will shift
wrly/nrly with the frontal passage, then relax.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Satellite imagery now shows SHRA/TSRA and clouds obscuring the areas
of dense marine over the near shore coastal waters. Latest short
term visibility guidance continues to show 1SM or less visibilities
through the remainder of the afternoon for the 0-20 nm zones and
Vermilion/Atchafalaya Bays. Last river pilot report had 1/2 mile
at Cameron shortly after noon. Thus, keeping the Dense Fog
Advisory for these areas through 6 PM.

Otherwise, onshore flow will continue this afternoon and tonight
ahead of the cold front. Numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front this afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms will have the potential to be
severe with damaging winds and waterspouts. Ending of the showers
and thunderstorms from west to east, followed by offshore flow,
will occur this evening and overnight with the frontal passage. A
secondary, stronger cold front will move across the coastal waters
on Friday with strong offshore flow and building seas developing
behind the front Friday into Friday night.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  68  44  58 /  80   0   0  10
LCH  45  67  47  59 /  80   0  10  10
LFT  51  67  49  62 /  90   0  10  10
BPT  45  69  46  60 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ435-450-
     452-455.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
341 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-092145-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
341 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon,
and end from west to east this evening. Some of these storms could
become severe producing damaging winds and tornadoes possible. In
addition to the severe weather threat, periods of heavy rainfall
could lead to localized street flooding.

Outside of thunderstorms, strong gradient winds of 20 to 25 mph with
gusts over 30 to 35 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory will
continue until 7 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A second, dry, and stronger cold front will push through the region
early Friday, bringing much colder and drier air to the region. A
light freeze is expected Sunday morning north of I-10.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning Monday
afternoon increasing Monday night into Tuesday with the approach of
the next cold front. While early indications show some potential for
severe weather with this system, it is too early to identify
specific threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-470-472-475-092145-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
341 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, and
end from west to east this evening and overnight. Some of these
storms could become severe producing strong winds and waterspouts.
Moderate offshore flow will develop in the wake of the frontal
passage tonight into Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A second, dry cold front will push through the coastal waters Friday
morning with strong and gusty northerly winds and increasing seas
developing in it's wake. Small craft advisories will likely be
needed Friday into Friday night.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning Monday
afternoon increasing Monday night into Tuesday with the approach of
the next cold front. While early indications show some potential for
severe weather with this system, it is too early to identify
specific threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ435-450-452-455-092145-
Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
341 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

Areas of marine fog will continue over the near shore coastal
waters this afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will
continue this afternoon, and end from west to east this evening and
overnight. Some of these storms could become severe producing strong
winds and waterspouts. Moderate offshore flow will develop in the
wake of the frontal passage tonight into Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A second, dry cold front will push through the coastal waters Friday
morning with strong and gusty northerly winds and increasing seas
developing in it's wake. Small craft advisories will likely be
needed Friday into Friday night.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning Monday
afternoon increasing Monday night into Tuesday with the approach of
the next cold front. While early indications show some potential for
severe weather with this system, it is too early to identify
specific threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
537 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

LAZ031-032-042-043-090000-
Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Evangeline LA-Allen LA-
537 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Jefferson Davis, southwestern Evangeline, northwestern Acadia and
southeastern Allen Parishes through 600 PM CST...

At 537 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pine Island, or near Kinder, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kinder, Basile, Oberlin, Elton, Fenton, Pine Island, Beaver, Bond and
Duralde.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for central and
southwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3083 9259 3054 9237 3053 9245 3050 9246
      3048 9249 3048 9247 3030 9287 3039 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 227DEG 48KT 3040 9283

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
617 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

LAZ033-042-043-052-074-090045-
Acadia LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Vermilion LA-St. Landry LA-
East Cameron LA-
617 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Cameron,
southeastern Jefferson Davis, Acadia, northwestern Vermilion and
south central St. Landry Parishes through 645 PM CST...

At 617 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Iota to Mermentau to near Klondike.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Opelousas, Crowley, Rayne, Church Point, Lake Arthur, Iota, Gueydan,
Mermentau, Klondike, Evangeline, Morse, Riceville, Wright, Maxie,
Mire, Egan, Branch, Richard, Lyons Point and Estherwood.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 68 and
90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for central and
southwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 9209 3028 9220 2999 9240 2994 9279
      3016 9264 3032 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 251DEG 24KT 3029 9252 3018 9257 3003 9267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Calhoun

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