Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

Fair weather day ongoing across the region this morning thanks to
upper level ridging extending across the northern gulf coast.
Scattered convection will again be possible over the outer coastal
waters today where significantly higher moisture has been
residing. Otherwise, the big story today remains drier air mixing
to the surface through the afternoon creating dangerous wildfire
conditions. Dewpoints are progged to drop into the lower 50s or
perhaps even upper 40s across parts of central Louisiana this
afternoon yielding RH values in the 20-30% range. Similar
conditions are expected tomorrow and a Red Flag Warning will
likely be issued later today for Sunday.

The inherited forecast is in good shape and the only change this
morning were minor tweaks to hourly dewpoints through the day.

Jones

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Over the short term, mid to upper level ridging over us will help
the region stay warm and dry, with drier air continuing to advect
into the area. Our dewpoints will be dropping into the 50s and
60s, yielding RH minimums each afternoon in the 20s to 30s save
the immediate coastline. This conditions pose a fire threat to our
area once again. As a result, we have a Red Flag Warning in place
for today, with a Fire Weather Watch in place for tomorrow.
Looking at the rest of the short term (and at the very beginning
of the long), low RH minimums and slightly elevated easterly to
what will be ESE 20 ft winds. Air temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 90s across the area yet again... Since it will be dry, we
will not have to worry about heat indices popping into advisory
criteria, something one should normally never have to worry about
a day before October. However it will be toasty AND we will have
to keep an eye out on record breaking temperatures. (More on that
in a future Climo AFD.)
Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Tuesday surface winds will still continue Easterly with some
southeasterly components at times. A strong ridge of high pressure
will now be centered over the Eastern Seaboard and extend modest
ridging SSW over the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Subsidence aloft will allow
poor mid level lapse rates and dewpoint depression which will help
prevent convection from occurring in our area. Wednesday, the high
pressure will shift East off in the Canadian Maritimes and Gulf of
Maine while ridging becomes slack over Louisiana ahead of an
upstream shortwave developing southward of the Central Plains. At
the surface we will certainly notice a cooling trend from Tuesday
onward, however, the exact nature of how precipitation will work
back into the forecast is still unconfirmed with numerical guidance
having some spread. At the very least trends of Isolated POPS appear
reasonable by Wednesday evening or Thursday- with best chances in
Texas.

A parent shortwave located in the Canadian Rockies will deeply
amplify with a positive tilt toward the Desert Southwest Tuesday.
Hereafter, the southern portion of the trough will be pinched from
the upper level pattern. The parent shortwave will accelerate east
over Great Lakes region through Thursday night while the cutoff low
remains temporarily stationary over the Four Corners region. Taking
into account the subtropical Jet meandering from Baja, Nrn Mexico
and lower TN and MS Valleys, a Jet Max will develop near the
ARKLATEX  late Thursday evening. As this pattern unfold between
Tuesday through Thursday, upper level divergence in this region
suggests some developing surface low over Texas. Therefore POPs
become scattered and increase Thursday and Friday, particularly for
our Eastern Texas counties and offshore waters with diurnal surface
max temperatures lowering to the upper 80’s. This setup will be
working with moisture drawn from the Pacific in the upper levels and
low level moisture from the Gulf so exact layout of precipitation
coverage is still being ironed out. Depending how the upper level
low rephrases with pattern downstream it is expected a cold front
with a more significantly cooler airmass behind it should further
progress into the Gulf as the surface low lifts into the TN
Valley by Friday afternoon. Thus, our cooling trend continue until
we “bottom out” in the low 80’s and lows trending toward 60 after
finishing off the work week.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain mostly clear
skies through the period. Light to moderate easterly winds will
prevail through the afternoon before becoming variable overnight.
Similar conditions expected Sunday morning with clear skies and
light easterly winds becoming predominant.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend
with a weak inverted trough moving westward across the western
Gulf of Mexico. The gradient between the two will allow for an
increase in easterly winds, becoming moderate, along with
increasing seas. Therefore, small craft exercise caution
headlines will continue for the coastal waters. The inverted
trough will also bring a chance for showers or storms for the next
couple of days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier air mass will gradually filter down into the forecast area
tonight into Saturday morning with dewpoints falling into the mid 50s
across central Louisiana and lower 60s closer to the coast. Easterly
winds of 10-15 MPH gusting to 20 will combine with RH values falling
into the mid 20s to produce conditions favorable for wildfire initiation
and rapid expansion. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
portions of southeast Texas, Central and southern Louisiana. Similar
conditions are expected again each afternoon Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

As promised, here is the climo AFD regarding these toasty temps. AEX
and ARA will be the ones to keep an eye on, as they are forecast to
tie the daily high temp record. Although I will be keeping a casual
look out for LCH and LFT as well.

Forecast VS Record Highs
September 30th
------------------------

96vs96 Alexandria

94vs94 New Iberia

94vs101 Beaumont

94vs97 Lake Charles

94vs97 Lafayette

Issued at 515 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Here's the latest statistics on 90-degree days at the 5 primary
local climate stations across the LCH forecast area as of today
(as all 5 locations again eclipsed the 90-degree mark).

.Alexandria (records date to 1892)
2023 90-degree days: 125
90-degree day record: 143 (1907)

.New Iberia (records date to 1948)
2023 90-degree days: 126
90-degree day record: 129 (2005)
Current 90-degree day streak: 115

.Beaumont/Port Arthur (records date to 1901)
2023 90-degree days: 125
90-degree day record: 133 (1902)

.Lake Charles (records date to 1895)
2023 90-degree days: 107
90-degree day record: 136 (1915)

.Lafayette (records date to 1893)
2023 90-degree days: 128
90-degree day record: 130 (2005)

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  95  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  68  94  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  70  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  71  94  71  94 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-141>143-241>243.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-241>243.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ259>262-516-
     616.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ259>262-516-616.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66