Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Lake Charles, LA

205 
WGUS74 KLCH 081331
FFSLCH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
731 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

LAC003-011-039-115-TXC351-081341-
/O.CAN.KLCH.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230108T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allen LA-Beauregard LA-Evangeline LA-Vernon LA-Newton TX-
731 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL EVANGELINE, 
NORTHEASTERN ALLEN, NORTHERN BEAUREGARD AND SOUTHERN VERNON PARISHES 
AND CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3059 9385 3074 9385 3096 9385 3114 9319
      3109 9301 3088 9289 3088 9237 3074 9241

$$

87

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
415 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 410 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

CDFNT slowly progressing into the area over the past few hours,
with an estimated position near or just SE of a line from
Natchitoches to Jasper to Houston based on SFC observations.
Regional radar imagery reveals a rather broad swath of areas of rain
with embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms either side of the
boundary. This activity, along with the front, will continue to
gradually push EWD across the area this morning and into the
afternoon, exiting to the east by late afternoon or early evening as
an upstream shortwave over west TX this morning translates across TX
and LA. Until then, cannot rule out a localized flood risk via
high rain rates and cell training, but do not expect widespread
heavy rainfall.

A relatively cooler and drier airmass will filter into the region
in the wake of the front, with a decent amount of clearing
expected this afternoon into this evening. Although highs today
will continue to be above normal (65 to 70), this is certainly
cooler than the record/near record warmth seen yesterday. Cloud
cover will begin to return overnight into MON, however, as
additional upstream shortwave energy over the Baja this morning
treks EWD across TX. Latest guidance continues to depict best MSTR
quality remaining over the Gulf as this feature traverses the
area MON night, so small NBM PoPs generally along/S of I-10 look
good. Expect highs MON to be very near seasonal normals with a
cool SFC high prevailing underneath considerable cloud cover ahead
of the shortwave.

In the wake of this feature, the SFC high departs to the east with a
light southerly flow returning under SW to westerly low to mid level
flow. This WAA regime will send highs TUE back into the upper
60s/lower 70s.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 410 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

Wednesday morning will start off with nearly zonal flow aloft and
two troughs, one weak one over the central Gulf and another
deepening one over the Four Corners States. At the surface, a high
pressure centered over FL will shift east as the system to our west
inches closer towards us. This will create a tight pressure
gradient, with winds out of the south near 10-20 MPH sustained and
higher gusts. This will pull in a plume of gulf moisture with PWATs
in the 75th to 90th percentile ahead of the next front.

Models seem to be in better agreement as to the upper level trough
and attached front out west. Going into Thursday, the trough will be
centered over the plains with the front sweeping through our
region. Conditions after the front will start off breezy with winds
out of the north and clearing skies. Our region will be sandwiched
between the departing system to the east and an elongated ridge out
to the west. Going into the weekend, winds will settle as the ridge
builds into the area. However going into Sunday an upper level ridge
will be overhead with the surface high over the east coast and
another approaching system out west. This will lead to another round
of strong southerly winds with moisture creeping back into the
region.

Temperatures will be quite warm before the front with highs in the
70s during the day and 60s at night. Post front temps will be
brought back down to climatological norms in the 60s during the day
and upper 30s to 40s overnight. One thing to note is that wind chill
values are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s behind the
front. Sunday will be nearly 10 degrees higher due to setup
described above.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread across the region
through the next few hours (a bit later for Acadiana) along and a
head of an approaching cold front. AEX/BPT should begin to see
impacts through the next hour or two, followed by LCH shortly
thereafter, and ARA/LFT closer to 10Z. Only real change this
evening was guidance has backed off on the potential for LIFR
ceilings and looking at current obs this seems to be correct.
Still could see some pockets of LIFR especially near the heavier
convection but mainly MVFR/IFR CIGS seems more likely. Otherwise,
heavy rain and reduced VIS will continue into the morning hours,
tapering off northwest to southeast through the mid day tomorrow.
By tomorrow evening all terminals should be quiet and returning to
VFR ceilings.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

Onshore flow along with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue ahead of a cold front forecast to push
across the coastal waters today. Modest offshore flow is expected
in the wake of the front, with rains ending by late this afternoon
or early evening. Winds will decrease and become more easterly on
Monday, with a light onshore flow returning Tuesday. This onshore
flow is expected to increase Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead
of another cold front forecast to sweep through the coastal waters
on Thursday.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  43  63  46 /  60   0  10  10
LCH  68  46  64  49 /  90   0  10  20
LFT  70  48  65  51 /  90   0  10  20
BPT  70  49  66  51 /  80   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
255 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-082100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
255 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A cold front will slowly push through the region late tonight
through Sunday morning, with widespread showers and some
thunderstorms expected. Some storms could produce heavy rainfall,
and there is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across southeast
Texas and portions of southwest and central Louisiana. Also, organized
severe weather is not expected at this time, although a storm or two
over coastal southeast Texas could produce damaging wind gusts and/or
large hail late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Sunday morning as a slow
moving frontal boundary continues to push through the area. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Rains will exit the
area during the afternoon as cooler and drier air pushes in behind
the front.

Isolated to scattered showers can be expected as a cold front sweeps
through the area on Thursday. Winds behind the front will be breezy
along with temperatures dropping into the 40s. Wind chill values
will be in the 30s.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-082100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
255 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A Small Craft Advisory is likely to be needed Thursday as winds
behind a cold front forecast to push through the area are expected
to meet and exceed criteria.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1024 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

TXZ180-259-080515-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
1024 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Tyler
and northern Jasper Counties through 1115 PM CST...

At 1023 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Colmesneil, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, pea size hail and heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Colmesneil, Chester, Ebenezer, Rockland, Browndell,
Harrisburg and Sam Rayburn Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3102 9462 3105 9451 3105 9449 3103 9448
      3103 9447 3111 9406 3114 9403 3116 9391
      3095 9386 3093 9387 3081 9458
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 259DEG 40KT 3095 9442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1144 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

LAZ027-TXZ259-260-080630-
Vernon LA-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
1144 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Vernon
Parish, northern Newton and northeastern Jasper Counties through 1230
AM CST...

At 1144 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Rosepine, Toledo Bend Dam, Burkeville, Jamestown, Farrsville,
Harrisburg, Burr Ferry, Mayflower, Stringtown, Evans and Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3096 9320 3087 9350 3088 9355 3085 9356
      3079 9374 3102 9398 3117 9378 3118 9360
      3117 9358 3119 9355 3123 9354 3124 9356
      3127 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 238DEG 24KT 3091 9373

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Rua

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
140 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

TXZ180-201-215-216-259-261-262-080815-
Orange TX-Jefferson TX-Hardin TX-Southern Newton TX-
Northern Jasper TX-Southern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
140 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Jefferson,
southeastern Tyler, southwestern Newton, Hardin, western Orange and
southeastern Jasper Counties through 215 AM CST...

At 140 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Warren to near Devers.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Port Neches, Lumberton,
Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, Kirbyville, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome,
Evadale, Central Gardens, Saratoga, Fred, Wildwood, Mauriceville and
Buna.

This includes Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 869 and
839.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 9451 3080 9387 3053 9388 3052 9387
      2997 9387 2991 9444 3011 9445 3011 9460
      3017 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 257DEG 25KT 3058 9430 2996 9460

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Stigger/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
154 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

LAZ027-030-031-080830-
Allen LA-Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-
154 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Beauregard, southeastern Vernon and north central Allen Parishes
through 230 AM CST...

At 154 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sugartown, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3071 9280 3070 9320 3087 9324 3101 9287
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 254DEG 19KT 3081 9312

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Stigger/87