Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
905 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

Key Messages:

Thunderstorm chances and the associated wind threat will be the
concern for tonight.

A quiet weather day is expected Wednesday with storm chances
returning for the end of the week.

Much cooler weather is expected by Sunday into the first of next
week as a strong disturbance and cold front cross the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

Satellite and radar suggest a MCS is forming across nrn Neb/srn
SD. A forecast update is in place for this feature using the 18z
NAMnest. Some thunderstorms tonight will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall which could cause flooding in some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

A warm front is located just south of the NE/KS border this
afternoon. This front should remain nearly stationary into this
evening as a weak area of low pressure develops across western KS in
response to a weak shortwave crossing CO. This wave should help to
enhance convective development along the Front Range late this
afternoon. CAMs grow this convection into a decent size cluster
across northeast CO into the southern NE Panhandle by early this
evening. Westerly flow atop low-level easterlies north of the warm
front will help to enhance the overall shear profiles this evening
across southwest NE. CAPE will be sufficiently strong for upscale
growth as this cluster moves eastward across southwest NE and into
northwest KS this evening. DCAPE values will be supportive of strong
wind gusts, particularly near and south of I-80. PWATS are quite high
as well in this area, with persistent easterly low-level flow
maintaining a high moisture content at the low-levels. Meanwhile the
mid and upper levels continue to see moisture advection from the
southwest CONUS on the periphery of the Southern Plains upper level
high. This all could lead to heavy rainfall intensity, but the
complex of storms should move through fast enough to limit the
threat of flooding.

A fairly quiet day is expected Wednesday in the wake of the complex
of storms expected tonight. The warm front in KS will settle
southward toward the southern part of the state as the weak surface
low migrates eastward across KS through the day. Low-level flow will
remain east-northeast (upslope) across the area Wednesday, but the
lack of any defined disturbance should limit the amount of convection
developing off the higher terrain. Still a loosely organized
cluster or two could emerge eastward Wednesday evening and would
contain locally gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

The expansive upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be
located across the Southern Plains Thursday into Friday. A weak
disturbance rotating northeastward on the western periphery of the
high will amplify as it reaches the northern Rockies by Friday.
Westerly upper level flow should increase somewhat across our area
as this occurs. In addition, lift will be enhanced, and could be a
rather wet period Thursday night through Friday. Some potential for
severe during this time with the increased flow aloft, but there
also could be abundant cloud cover which would limit the
instability. The system turns east and crosses the Northern Plains
Saturday into Sunday. This will drive a significant cold front
southward through the area, reaching all the way to the Red River
Valley by Monday. A somewhat drier modified Canadian airmass will
surge into the area behind the front Monday into Tuesday. High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be well below normal in the
wake of the front, with highs mostly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

VFR conditions expected outside of thunderstorms, though
significant storms may impact KLBF and possibly KVTN.

Will use VCTS and a TEMPO group 04Z to 07Z at KLBF where
confidence in convection is higher, but just a VCTS at KVTN. Winds
especially at KLBF may gust to 40kt or higher as thunderstorms
organize into a complex and move across southern Nebraska. Will
adjust timing and magnitude of winds and weather once radar trends
become established. Showers/storms will linger through late
tonight but expect VFR with any lingering showers exiting off to
the east by 12Z. VFR conditions with winds generally at or below
10kt are expected to persist through the latter portion of the
valid period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
319 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
319 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 /219 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible later this evening into the overnight
hours across a large portion of western and north central Nebraska.
At this time, the main severe threat is over southwestern Nebraska
where strong winds and hail up to the size of quarters are the main
threats. In addition, heavy rain may also be a threat over
southwestern Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon, into the
evening hours Wednesday through Monday. On Thursday, there is a
marginal threat for severe storms mainly west of a line from
Valentine to North Platte. Severe storms are also possible on
Saturday across a large portion of western and north central
Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight. Reports of severe weather
tonight are greatly appreciated.

CLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
828 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023

NEZ004-094-020300-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
828 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Cherry
and northeastern Sheridan Counties through 900 PM MDT...

At 827 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lacreek Wildlife Refuge to near Merriman to 9
miles southeast of Gordon. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Merriman, Cody Lake, Eli, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara
River, Irwin, Intersection of Highway 61 and Shadbolt Road,
Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road, Rock Hill and Bayonne.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 114 and 163.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 208 and 231.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10106 4273 10148 4261 10203 4276 10207
      4300 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 275DEG 11KT 4306 10163 4286 10175 4275 10204

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
958 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

NEZ094-020345-
Western Cherry NE-
958 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Cherry
County through 1045 PM CDT...

At 958 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Cody to 8 miles southeast
of Merriman to 16 miles southeast of Gordon. Movement was east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Nenzel, Medicine Lake, Cody Lake, Highway 61 crossing the Snake
River, Eli, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River and Intersection
of Highway 61 and Shadbolt Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 143 and 171.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 198 and 218.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4282 10114 4253 10169 4260 10205 4285 10166
      4300 10148 4299 10093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 274DEG 14KT 4301 10137 4285 10157 4264 10196

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1038 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

NEZ094-020430-
Western Cherry NE-
1038 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Cherry County
through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1037 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Medicine Lake to 21 miles south of
Merriman. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Lake, Indian Hill, Intersection of Highway 61 and Shadbolt
Road, Schoolhouse Lake, Highway 61 crossing the Snake River and Round
Lake.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 188 and 208.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 10113 4227 10167 4262 10184 4285 10145
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 329DEG 12KT 4275 10148 4261 10172

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
946 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023

NEZ022-056-020430-
Deuel NE-Garden NE-
946 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Garden
and northwestern Deuel Counties through 1030 PM MDT...

At 945 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lodgepole, or 8 miles northwest of Chappell, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Lewellen, Ash Hollow State Historical Park, Mount Vernon and
Intersection of Highway 27 and 9 Mile Road.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 78 and
82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 10261 4151 10234 4130 10211 4106 10258
      4109 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 229DEG 20KT 4119 10258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1025 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023

NEZ022-056-057-020515-
Deuel NE-Garden NE-Keith NE-
1025 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Keith,
southeastern Garden and eastern Deuel Counties through 1115 PM MDT...

At 1025 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Oshkosh to near Barton. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Big Springs, Lewellen, Barton, Eagle Gulch Campground,
Ruthon, Clear Creek State Wildlife Management Area, Rackett,
Intersection of Highway 27 and 9 Mile Road, Megeath, Ash Hollow State
Historical Park, Goldeneye State Wildlife Management Area, Adams
Flats, Bluewater Battlefield State Historical Park and Windlass Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 115 and 124.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 98 and 110.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4181 10214 4111 10188 4100 10219 4101 10223
      4145 10245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 215DEG 28KT 4145 10237 4106 10223

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1134 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

NEZ094-020515-
Western Cherry NE-
1134 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Cherry
County through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles southwest of Medicine Lake, or 25 miles southeast of Gordon,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Round Lake, Intersection of Highway 61 and Survey Valley Road and
Highway 61 crossing the Snake River.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 181 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4257 10196 4268 10176 4244 10147 4228 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 325DEG 12KT 4257 10181

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC