Snow Squall Warning 2, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
527 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

...Aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

H5 analysis from earlier this morning continued to show
a highly amplified pattern across the CONUS and Canada. High
pressure was situated over the northern Pacific Ocean with a high
amplitude ridge extending north into northern Alaska. Downstream of
this feature, closed low pressure was located over northeastern
Oregon with a trough of low pressure extending south into Baja
California. North of the low, a secondary shortwave was located over
eastern British Columbia. Across the central Plains, a shortwave
trough extended from southwestern Kansas into western Texas. Across
eastern Canada and the eastern CONUS, closed low pressure was
located over Hudson Bay, while high pressure was located over the
Bahamas. An arctic cold front pushed through the area overnight and
bitterly cold temperatures and light snow was being reported over
most of western and north central Nebraska. Readings this afternoon
were in the single digits with readings around zero in northern
Nebraska.

Key Messages:

- Dangerous winter conditions will continue into the morning hours
  Thursday with snow, blowing snow and bitter cold wind chills of
  -25 to -40 likely.

- Light snow may impact portions of the forecast area Thursday
  night with only minimal snow accumulations. Dangerous wind
  chills of -20 to -30 are expected as well.

- Another storm is expected to impact the area Sunday night into
Monday, with the possibility of rain or snow. Strong winds appear
likely and thunderstorms may be possible in eastern area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

A strong shortwave, currently over southern Colorado, will lift
quickly northeast late this afternoon into the early evening
hours. Enhanced lift and mid level moisture will flow into SW
Nebraska after 00z and spread into northeastern portions of the
forecast area by 12z Thursday. As this feature tracks from SW
Nebraska into north central and northeastern Nebraska a quick
burst of 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible mainly this
evening. QPF with this forecast package 00z-06z this evening has
nudged up slightly from the pvs forecast. The near term models
(NAM12 and HRRR) solns this morning have come in more in line with
the GEFS and EC ensemble precipitation totals for SW Nebraska.
That being said, still feel we could see a quick hit of additional
snow this evening. With lightning strikes noted in northern New
Mexico with the upstream shortwave and decent mid level
instability, wouldn't be surprised if we see some brief moderate
to heavy snow showers this evening in SW Nebraska. Snow will end
from south to north overnight with the threat for snow exiting the
area by 12z Thursday. However, winds will remain breezy overnight
into Thursday morning. This will lead to blowing snow concerns
and bitter cold wind chills across the area. Earlier, a wind
chill warning was hoisted for tonight through noon Thursday for
locations along and north of the I-80 corridor. Across, Chase,
Hayes and Frontier counties a wind chill advisory was hoisted for
those areas. Current winter headlines run to noon Thursday. Will
have the evening and overnight shift ascertain the blowing snow
threat, particularly in the west and southwestern forecast area
for early cancellation of the winter storm warning and winter
weather advisory. Skies will gradually clear Thursday afternoon
across the area, however temperatures will struggle to get out of
the single digits. By Thursday night another weak disturbance and
jet streak will approach the forecast area from the southwest.
Light snow will be possible across the area. With favorable lift
noted in the NAM12, GFS and Canadian solns this morning, went
ahead and introduced some low pops Thursday night for snow. Lows
will remain very cold Friday with below zero temps across the
board. Minimum wind chills will fall off to -15 to -30 Friday
morning which will necessitate some sort of wind chill headline.
However, clouds in association with the Thursday night
disturbance, may elevate min temps some and will need to ascertain
this further before issuing any wind chill headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Friday night into Saturday night, we will see more of a zonal
pattern across the central CONUS. A warm front will push east of
the area Friday night, allowing readings to return into the 40s
for Saturday and Sunday. As was the case yesterday, we are
tracking an intense upper level low an surface low, which is
slated to impact the central and southern plains Sunday afternoon
into Monday. As was the case yesterday, the models keep
temperatures warm enough for a mainly all rain event for the
forecast area. As for precipitation chances, they will remain
focused generally east of highway 83. There are some minor
differences in location of convective initiation over Kansas and
southern Nebraska with this system. The GFS is more positively
tilted with its upper level trough and keeps the convection and
pcpn just off to the east of the area. The EC soln is more
negatively tilted and initiates convection further west. South
southwesterly winds in the mid levels, carry this precipitation
into eastern portions of the forecast area Sunday night. With the
frozen ground conditions and snow cover, any moderate to heavy
rain could quickly lead to hydro concerns. We will continue to
monitor this system closely over the next couple of days. Better
confidence exists with winds with this system. The models develop
a roughly 985mb surface low over Kansas Sunday evening, which
deepens to around 980mb as it lifts into NW Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Poor flight conditions expected through the first part of the TAF
period.

Expect IFR/LIFR conditions in snow and blowing snow will persist
at KVTN into tonight. Conditions may vary but do not expect enough
variation for a TEMPO group and will only amend for trends that
will persist. Do not expect significant improvement until the
early morning hours of Thursday as low pressure pulls away with
snow ending and CIGs rising, but some blowing snow may continue to
lower visibility well into Thursday morning.

At KLBF, expect conditions will trend down as a period of more
intense snow and blowing snow affects the airfield this evening
with IFR/LIFR CIGs and VSBY. However improvement will begin later
tonight with a trend to VFR toward daybreak.

Northerly winds will remain gusty through early tonight, then
become northwesterly and gradually decrease through tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>037-056-057-094.

Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for
NEZ038-058-059-069>071.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for
NEZ069>071.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-232145-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
343 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 /243 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Snow will come to an end overnight. Blowing and drifting snow will
still be possible through the overnight into Thursday, especially
across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills where the heavier snowfall
totals will reside. Visibility will also be reduced with blowing
snow, impacting travel.

Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills expected through tonight
across all of western and north central Nebraska. Wind chill values
up to -40 expected across much of western and north central Nebraska
overnight into Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Bitter cold wind chills can be expected through Friday morning.
Light snow possibly Thursday night, generally less than an inch
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected, however, cooperative observers
are encouraged to send in snow reports to the NWS in North Platte.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
601 PM CST WED FEB 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     SNOW             16 SW MULLEN            41.88N 101.26W
02/22/2023  E5.0 INCH        HOOKER             NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.

0500 PM     SNOW             VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
02/22/2023  E5.5 INCH        CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            0.49 LIQUID, 8 INCHES TOTAL ON THE GROUND.

&&