Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS North Platte, NE

705 
WWUS53 KLBF 152121
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
421 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

NEC031-152145-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-230615T2145Z/
Cherry NE-
421 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY...

At 420 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of 
Merriman, or 16 miles southeast of Martin, moving northeast at 15 
mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Merriman, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River, Intersection of
Highway 61 and Shadbolt Road, Eli and Intersection of Highway 20 and
Irwin Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 119 and 151.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 207 and 230.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 10171 4300 10151 4286 10130 4264 10169
      4281 10196 4300 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 216DEG 15KT 4294 10157 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Buttler

110 
WWUS53 KLBF 152136
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
436 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

NEC031-152146-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-230615T2145Z/
Cherry NE-
436 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
North Platte.

LAT...LON 4299 10171 4300 10151 4286 10130 4264 10169
      4281 10196 4300 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 228DEG 10KT 4297 10153 

$$

Buttler

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
258 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Key Messages:

- Rain and thunderstorm potential will continue to increase this afternoon
  and early evening, mainly for areas west of Highway 83. The
  threat for severe weather is low.

- Additional rain and thunderstorms are likely Friday and again Saturday
  with locally heavy rain possible through that time.

- Dry and warmer for early next week.

- Turning more active again for the latter half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This Afternoon/Tonight...current satellite analysis shows shortwave
trough tracking across eastern Colorado. This feature is responsible
for the late morning ACCUS and isolated showers/weak thunderstorms
across mainly southwest Nebraska. This shortwave will gradually lift
north and east through the afternoon and into southwest Nebraska for
the afternoon and evening hours. Though forcing is fairly modest,
steep mid-level lapse rates overtop a plume of richer low-level
moisture will yield MLCAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range. Winds
throughout the mid-levels remain weak, however, with less than 20
knots of deep layer shear expected. As a result, will be more
concerned about potential for locally heavy rainfall from slow
moving activity and potential for isolated instances of hail and
gusty winds across far southwest Nebraska where the latest SPC
outlook highlights a Marginal risk. Further north, a weak surface
low will track east across South Dakota. This will drag a cool front
into our northwestern zones. Increased convergence/fgen along this
boundary will lead to more widespread rain and thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening. Given increased coverage and threat for
training storms along the surface boundary, will have greater
concern for locally heavy rain across the western Sandhills into the
eastern Panhandle. HREF highlights these areas with greatest mean
and ensemble maximum QPF values. Individual CAMs including the
HRRR/NAM Nest/NSSL WRF depict very isolated areas of 1.00"/hour rain
rates or higher through tonight but keep activity progressive enough
to limit longer duration and greater hydro concerns. Won't be
surprised to see a few locations record 1-2" or rain but given
spotty coverage not expecting widespread issues. Surface front will
continue to drift south overnight tonight before stalling invof a
Benkelman to Broken Bow line. Given expected cloud cover and
thunderstorm activity, will boost Friday morning lows slightly with
values generally in the low 50s northwest to upper 50s south and
east.

Friday/Friday Night...stalled boundary will settle in portions of
central and southwest Nebraska early in the day. This will lift
north by early afternoon into the local area once again. Again, two
regimes of rain and thunderstorm potential will exist locally: the
first will reside behind the frontal boundary across the Nebraska
Panhandle and the western Sandhills. This area will largely be
driven by multiple PV anomalies  ejecting out of eastern Wyoming.
This will lead to widespread rain and a few general thunderstorms
where MUCAPE values may reach as high as 500 j/kg. Low-level CAA
will keep the profile saturated with surface based LI values
climbing to positive values. Given rain and cloud cover, expecting
fairly cool daytime temperatures with highs only in the low 60s. The
second regime will reside in close proximity to the previously
mentioned surface boundary which will settle near a McCook to Ord
line. With much warmer temperatures (afternoon highs in the upper
70s to middle 80s) and richer low-level moisture expected in closer
proximity and southeast of this boundary, a more unstable airmass
will develop by mid-afternoon. With increased southerly flow into
the boundary expecting rapid development of scattered to widespread
rain and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Within an anomalously
moist airmass characterized by PWAT values exceeding 1.00" and
potentially nearing the 1.2-1.3" range, heavy rain again be the main
concern. While MLCAPE values will climb into the 1500-2000 j/kg
range, deep layer shear will be insufficient for organized
convection. Cannot rule out a few stronger updrafts capable of at
least small hail, thinking these instances will be few and far
between as shear vectors are largely parallel to the boundary and
quick upscale growth is likely. Rapid development of convection
along this boundary will help propel it further south and east out
of the area by late evening. This should bring a fairly swift end to
rain and thunderstorms for the day. This thinking lines up with
latest HREF guidance which ends precipitation for areas northwest of
a Grant to Taylor to Butte line with low-end chances lingering into
the early morning Saturday elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Saturday...another round of scattered rain and thunderstorms is
expected to track through the area mainly in the early half of the
day. As mid-level troughing tracks across eastern Montana into the
Dakotas, the next strong PV anomaly will eject out of the central
Rockies by early Saturday morning. Strong lift via PV advection,
strong h5 height falls, and mid-level frontogenesis will lead to
scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms across mainly western
Kansas but likely extending north into southwest and central
Nebraska. Positive LI values again suggest limited threat for strong
thunderstorms but modest MUCAPE of 500-750 j/kg rooted around h8
will still support some embedded thunderstorms. Greatest PoPs will
follow the mid-level shortwave with rising heights quickly working
in by mid to late afternoon. Did opt to trim up PoPs during the
afternoon and evening somewhat based rapid arrival of drier air from
the north with PWAT values falling below 0.75" and NBM 75th
percentile showing dry conditions across our northwest zones through
the day. Temperatures for the day will remain on the cooler side for
June standards with afternoon highs in the 70s and potential for a
few locations under the greater threat for rain and cloud cover to
hold in the 60s.

Sunday through Tuesday...mid-level heights will quickly increase
through Sunday and Monday as shortwave ridging works in ahead of the
next longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest. Ridging will
amplify through Monday into Tuesday. Strong WAA in the low to mid-
levels will propel temperatures near to above the 90th percentile
across the northern Plains. This will push daytime highs into the
mid to upper 80s by Sunday and towards the middle 90s by Monday and
Tuesday, a noteworthy upward trend from the forecast 24 hours ago.
Though summer-like temperatures appear more likely, overall heat
concerns remain fairly low with heat index values appearing limited
to middle 90s for now on Monday and Tuesday. This bears watching
going forward.

Wednesday and beyond...the next round of active weather appears set
to arrive around late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A southern
stream shortwave will track out of the southern Rockies late in the
day on Tuesday. This will place a dryline across much of the High
Plains with a moist and unstable airmass across much of the region.
At this time, confidence in placement of greatest upper-level
dynamics is fairly low with large spread in ensemble guidance. For
now, inherited PoPs climb to around 40-50% by early Wednesday which
lines up best with the GEFS though EPS suggests further north with
the greatest rain and thunderstorm chances. The next round arrives
Wednesday with greater potential closer to home. This active pattern
with daily rain and thunderstorm chances will continue into Thursday
through the following weekend with general southeasterly low-level
flow advecting in greater moisture and southwesterly elevated flow
aloft supporting increased potential for storm organization. Day-to-
day severe weather potential remains low confidence however and
likely won't be more concrete until placement of greatest mid-level
flow can be more precisely determined so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

VFR will continue for most western and north central Nebraska
terminals through Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers and
storms then develop in the panhandle and spread east during the
evening. South winds will start the day, then a transition to
northwest occurs with a cold front for western and northern
terminals (KVTN). Meanwhile, winds switch to easterly for central
and southwest terminals ahead of the front (KLBF).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...NMJ
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
308 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
308 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 /208 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and persist
through the evening hours, mainly west of a line from Ansley to
Bassett. Heavy rain, lightning and small hail is the main threats
with these storms. Some strong storms are possible, mainly over
southern portions of Chase, Hayes and Frontier counties as well as
northwestern Nebraska, mainly western Cherry and Sheridan counties.
Hail up to quarter size and 60 MPH wind gusts are possible in these
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional showers and storms are possible Friday and Saturday. Some
of the storms may be capable of producing very heavy rainfall
Friday, mainly near and south of Interstate 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023

NEZ004-151930-
Sheridan NE-
1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Sheridan County through 130 PM MDT...

At 1246 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northeast of Wild Horse Butte, or 23 miles south of Hay
Springs, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Diamond Lake and Smith Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 250 between mile markers 15 and 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 10265 4245 10265 4250 10231 4223 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 268DEG 7KT 4236 10256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Buttler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
310 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

NEZ094-152100-
Western Cherry NE-
310 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Cherry
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Merriman, or 17 miles east of Gordon, moving northeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Merriman, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River and Irwin.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 122 and 145.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 218 and 231.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10143 4299 10141 4274 10180 4290 10202
      4300 10191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 228DEG 10KT 4288 10187

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Buttler

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

NEZ094-152130-
Western Cherry NE-
337 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Cherry
County through 430 PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Gordon, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River, Intersection of Highway 61
and Shadbolt Road, Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road, Rock
Hill and Bayonne.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 117 and 134.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 208 and 224.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 10205 4276 10206 4295 10175 4273 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 235DEG 18KT 4267 10200

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC