Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms this evening and tonight, some may be severe with
damaging winds and hail the main threats, along with very heavy rain

- Daily storm chances continue through the forecast period,
including marginal severe Tue & Wed and greatest potential Thu & Fri

- Seasonable temps with highs in the 80s Tue & Wed, 70s/80s after

Synopsis:

Nebraska is caught between two upper closed lows, one centered off
the Calif coast and the other the N.Carolina coast. A quasi-
stationary front or surface trough stretches across the panhandle
and western Sandhills this afternoon, anchored by a low near the
Badlands. A couple other little surface boundaries are noted across
the Sandhills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

This evening and tonight... Thunderstorms will continue to develop
near the front in western Nebraska and possibly grow upscale or
become more organized as they progress eastward. Surface temps in
the 80s and dew points near 60F, along with cool temps aloft (around
7C at H7 and -13C at H5), have resulted in ample instability over
the forecast area this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE
values of 2000+ j/kg and mid-level lapse rates as steep as 8 C/km.
Deep layer shear is marginally supportive of severe storms,
currently (as of 20z) measuring 25-30 kts. However, a speed max at
H5 approaching from the Rockies may bump those values up this
evening. Cloud layer shear vectors are somewhat perpendicular to the
main boundary, suggesting isolated/scattered convection to start.
Depending on cold pool strength, which may be on the more powerful
side compared to shear, the storms may grow upscale into an MCS by
late evening. As such, the primary severe threats will likely
transition from wind/hail mix to more wind as the event progresses.
Additionally, will need to monitor the torrential rain threat. Storm
motion vectors are not abnormally slow, but seasonally high PWAT and
recent heavy rain/flooding concerns raises the threat. For overall
timing and coverage, used a blend of HRRR, NAMnest, and RRFS. This
blend suggests initiation (which is just occurring as of 20z) in the
western and central Sandhills, increased activity from KIML to KLBF
to KONL around 00z, and toward central Neb (KBBW) by 03z. For min
temps, stayed near the NBM mean with values ranging from near 50F
panhandle to near 60F far north central.

Tomorrow... Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues for Nebraska as the
pair of upper lows drift east a little. The surface boundary/front
will likely be an issue once again as it maintains its general
position over western Neb. Southerly flow at H85 up the High Plains
continues to draw moisture off the Gulf, which translates to surface
dew points in the 50s (west) to around 60F (east). Weak WAA is also
noted, suggesting another day of highs in the 80s. This combination
will result in sufficient instability for thunderstorms, let alone
strong or severe. Forecast MUCAPE values approach 3000 j/kg and mid-
level lapse rates near 8 C/km by late afternoon. Deep layer shear
appears to be similar to today, marginally supportive of larger hail
and stronger winds. An afternoon initiation - evening evolution
scenario may be in the works.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Flow aloft transitions to southwesterly and eventually meridional as
the Western US trough axis and accompanying closed low move onshore
and toward the Four Corners. Longer range guidance suggests the
closed low will stall or meander over the central Rockies. This
setup, along with surface features in the vicinity, spell a
continued synoptically active period for western Nebraska. Daily
thunderstorms are a possibility, but the greater potential for more
widespread activity occurs late this week with the approaching upper
low. Temperatures should remain seasonable through next weekend with
highs generally in the 80s Wednesday, then 70s/lower 80s to round
out the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Thunderstorms are the primary aviation weather concern for western
and north central Nebraska, mainly through 30/06z. Scattered
coverage will become more widespread through this evening from
KOGA to KTIF to KONL and terminals east (incl. KLBF). Expect hail,
gusty erratic winds, and torrential rainfall leading to visby
reductions. South winds will also transition to westerly tonight
before becoming light and variable toward dawn. Southerly winds
resume midday, along with isolated storm chances after 30/21z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
956 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301500-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
956 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 /856 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon
and persist into tonight. Any storms that develop has the potential
for locally heavy rainfall, hail, and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Possibility of strong to briefly severe storms exists for Tuesday
afternoon and evening generally south of highways 2 and 91. Hazards
include hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

Afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms are possible each
day Wednesday through Saturday. The severe threat remains uncertain
across much of the area at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to the
National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

NEZ025>027-300000-
Loup NE-Blaine NE-Thomas NE-
619 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Loup,
central Blaine and eastern Thomas Counties through 700 PM CDT...

At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Rose to 8 miles east of
Brewster to near Halsey. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Dunning and Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 142 and 146.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 229 and 240.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4189 9943 4184 9976 4178 10016 4195 10028
      4207 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 278DEG 22KT 4203 9948 4196 9971 4190 10019

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

NEZ024-025-036-037-059-300000-
Hooker NE-McPherson NE-Thomas NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
621 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Hooker,
northeastern Lincoln, western Logan, eastern McPherson and
southwestern Thomas Counties through 700 PM CDT/600 PM MDT/...

At 621 PM CDT/521 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles north of Tryon to
15 miles north of Hershey. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tryon, Ringgold and Highway 83 crossing The Dismal River.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 198 and 227.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 17 and 44.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 127 and 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ for southwestern, north central and west central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4140 10110 4173 10105 4189 10048 4139 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 249DEG 21KT 4169 10098 4139 10103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             2 E THEDFORD            41.98N 100.54W
05/29/2023  E1.00 INCH       THOMAS             NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0635 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E THEDFORD            41.98N 100.54W
05/29/2023  E2.40 INCH       THOMAS             NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            2.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN 3 HOURS.

&&

JACLYN.GOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
654 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             3 W THEDFORD            41.98N 100.64W
05/29/2023  M1.00 INCH       THOMAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL
            NEAR THEDFORD.

&&

AV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
710 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      THEDFORD                41.98N 100.58W
05/29/2023                   THOMAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER VIA SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF
            PARTIAL ROAD CLOSURE ON HWY 2 IN THEDFORD
            DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

AV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 W THEDFORD            41.98N 100.59W
05/29/2023  M1.00 INCH       THOMAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SHERIFF.

&&

AV