Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms this evening and tonight, some may be severe with
damaging winds and hail the main threats, along with very heavy rain

- Daily storm chances continue through the forecast period,
including marginal severe Tue & Wed and greatest potential Thu & Fri

- Seasonable temps with highs in the 80s Tue & Wed, 70s/80s after

Synopsis:

Nebraska is caught between two upper closed lows, one centered off
the Calif coast and the other the N.Carolina coast. A quasi-
stationary front or surface trough stretches across the panhandle
and western Sandhills this afternoon, anchored by a low near the
Badlands. A couple other little surface boundaries are noted across
the Sandhills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

This evening and tonight... Thunderstorms will continue to develop
near the front in western Nebraska and possibly grow upscale or
become more organized as they progress eastward. Surface temps in
the 80s and dew points near 60F, along with cool temps aloft (around
7C at H7 and -13C at H5), have resulted in ample instability over
the forecast area this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE
values of 2000+ j/kg and mid-level lapse rates as steep as 8 C/km.
Deep layer shear is marginally supportive of severe storms,
currently (as of 20z) measuring 25-30 kts. However, a speed max at
H5 approaching from the Rockies may bump those values up this
evening. Cloud layer shear vectors are somewhat perpendicular to the
main boundary, suggesting isolated/scattered convection to start.
Depending on cold pool strength, which may be on the more powerful
side compared to shear, the storms may grow upscale into an MCS by
late evening. As such, the primary severe threats will likely
transition from wind/hail mix to more wind as the event progresses.
Additionally, will need to monitor the torrential rain threat. Storm
motion vectors are not abnormally slow, but seasonally high PWAT and
recent heavy rain/flooding concerns raises the threat. For overall
timing and coverage, used a blend of HRRR, NAMnest, and RRFS. This
blend suggests initiation (which is just occurring as of 20z) in the
western and central Sandhills, increased activity from KIML to KLBF
to KONL around 00z, and toward central Neb (KBBW) by 03z. For min
temps, stayed near the NBM mean with values ranging from near 50F
panhandle to near 60F far north central.

Tomorrow... Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues for Nebraska as the
pair of upper lows drift east a little. The surface boundary/front
will likely be an issue once again as it maintains its general
position over western Neb. Southerly flow at H85 up the High Plains
continues to draw moisture off the Gulf, which translates to surface
dew points in the 50s (west) to around 60F (east). Weak WAA is also
noted, suggesting another day of highs in the 80s. This combination
will result in sufficient instability for thunderstorms, let alone
strong or severe. Forecast MUCAPE values approach 3000 j/kg and mid-
level lapse rates near 8 C/km by late afternoon. Deep layer shear
appears to be similar to today, marginally supportive of larger hail
and stronger winds. An afternoon initiation - evening evolution
scenario may be in the works.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Flow aloft transitions to southwesterly and eventually meridional as
the Western US trough axis and accompanying closed low move onshore
and toward the Four Corners. Longer range guidance suggests the
closed low will stall or meander over the central Rockies. This
setup, along with surface features in the vicinity, spell a
continued synoptically active period for western Nebraska. Daily
thunderstorms are a possibility, but the greater potential for more
widespread activity occurs late this week with the approaching upper
low. Temperatures should remain seasonable through next weekend with
highs generally in the 80s Wednesday, then 70s/lower 80s to round
out the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the late afternoon ahead of
scattered thunderstorm development across the area. These
scattered thunderstorms will be the main aviation concern in the
next 24 hours. These storms have the potential to produce gusty
and erratic winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. Confidence is
increasing in KLBF seeing organized convection between 01Z to 04Z
this evening, thus included a TEMPO group with IFR visibilities
and ceilings. For KVTN, confidence is modest in regards to
specific impacts to the terminal, however, did opt for a TEMPO
group from 22Z to 01Z as this will be the most likely time for
thunder. Anticipate these storms to move towards the east through
midnight tonight. Given the scattered nature of these storms,
future refinements are possible. Low-end VFR conditions are
expected behind the departing activity, continuing through the
bulk of the overnight on Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Viken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
956 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301500-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
956 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 /856 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon
and persist into tonight. Any storms that develop has the potential
for locally heavy rainfall, hail, and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Possibility of strong to briefly severe storms exists for Tuesday
afternoon and evening generally south of highways 2 and 91. Hazards
include hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

Afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms are possible each
day Wednesday through Saturday. The severe threat remains uncertain
across much of the area at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to the
National Weather Service.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
525 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

NEZ009-010-027-028-292315-
Loup NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-Rock NE-
525 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Rock,
northeastern Loup, northwestern Garfield and southwestern Holt
Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 524 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Rose, or 22 miles north of Taylor, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carson Lake.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 139 and 152.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4197 9944 4213 9956 4231 9925 4208 9907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 240DEG 9KT 4209 9942

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
526 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

NEZ006-007-009-010-292315-
Holt NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-Boyd NE-
526 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Rock,
northwestern Holt, northeastern Keya Paha and western Boyd Counties
through 615 PM CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles southwest of Herrick to 12 miles south
of Naper. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Butte, Naper, Dustin, Anoka, Nets Peak, Mariaville, Mills,
Brocksburg, Parshall Bridge State Wildlife Management Area and Hull
Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 281 between mile markers 216 and 218.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 68 and 122.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4291 9866 4264 9921 4293 9956 4300 9948
      4300 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 229DEG 18KT 4295 9941 4279 9918

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
532 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

NEZ025-026-292315-
Blaine NE-Thomas NE-
532 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Blaine
and central Thomas Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Halsey to 7 miles west of Thedford.
Movement was east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thedford, Halsey, Natwick and Norway.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 200 and 229.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 142 and 153.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4205 10012 4203 10076 4189 10078 4189 10016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 265DEG 6KT 4196 10030 4195 10072

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
534 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             THEDFORD                41.98N 100.57W
05/29/2023  E0.88 INCH       THOMAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THIRD ROUND OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

0528 PM     FLOOD            THEDFORD                41.98N 100.57W
05/29/2023                   THOMAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AND AROUND TOWN.

&&

JACLYN.GOMEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
534 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

NEZ026-292315-
Blaine NE-
534 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Brown and
northern Blaine Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Brewster, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster and Hawley Flats.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4191 9975 4191 10015 4209 10011 4208 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 268DEG 14KT 4204 10000

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer