Severe Thunderstorm Warning 350, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...Aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Key Messages:

Severe potential tonight though Friday night. In addition expect
locally heavy rainfall to occur, with highest chances for this
occurring across northern Nebraska.

A cold front moves through the area Saturday with northwest winds
developing.

Mainly dry weather is expected Sunday into the middle of next week.
Temperatures should mostly be near normal during this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Potent upper level low pressure is located across across the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon. Diffluent flow aloft coupled with mid-
level WAA has contributed to training/redeveloping convection across
northern NE. Locally heavy rainfall has already occurred with 2-3"
recorded in a few spots. Continued scattered redevelopment is
expected to continue across northern NE well into the evening
tonight...as mid-level WAA continues and upper level forcing
gradually increases.

As far as the severe aspect goes, it is a bit complicated. An
earlier MCS across northeast NE contributed to an outflow boundary
that extends from near Holdrege to North Platte. A surface low is
located across far northeast CO. A dryline/steep low-level lapse
rates have pushed eastward into northwest KS south of the low where
temperatures have warmed to near 90. Consecutive runs of the HRRR
develop convection on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse rates
across northwest KS/far SW Neb. As the convection develops it will
push east-northeastward into moist backed southeast low-level flow.
Any activity that develops should quickly become supercellular. Very
steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a large hail threat.
Tornado threat is also there, as the backed southeast low-level flow
will result in curved hodographs and effective SRH locally up to 300
m2/s2. Will have to monitor the location of the stalled outflow
boundary which could locally enhance the tornado threat. Convection
will likely increase further into the mid-evening hours across
portions of the Sandhills central/north central NE as the low-level
jet increases. This activity would be more elevated in nature but
could still pose a hail threat.

Confidence in the overall evolution convection/severe is low on
Friday. Parts of northern into central will likely see an overcast
stratus deck for much of the day. Still mid-level WAA will continue
and elevated convection will certainly be possible amid favorable
forcing aloft. A surface low will remain anchored across far
southwest NE, with steep low-level lapse rates again nosing into
this area. This could certainly be an area for initiation, with an
unstable and highly sheared environment located downstream. A marked
increase in convection is expected Friday evening as the better
dynamics overspread the Northern Plains as the upper low approaches.
Northern NE will be located nearer the better dynamics/forcing and
thus the higher pops will be located across this area...decreasing
to the south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

A vertically stacked (weakening) upper low should be located across
SD Saturday. A cold front will swing southeastward across the area
as the surface low migrates across SD. The focus for severe will
shift east of the area along the cold front during afternoon. Breezy
northwest winds should overspread our area of western and north
central Nebraska. The continued weakening upper low will remain
anchored across the SD vicinity though early next week. An isolated
shower could occur across far northern NE during this time, but will
be located in the drier sector of the upper low. Temperatures will
generally average near normal during this timeframe. Upper level
ridging may try to nose into the area mid-week ahead of developing
upper level troughing across the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Ongoing convection will continue to affect TAF sites, especially
KLBF, through the first part of the valid period. Expect
stratus/fog will bloom overnight, with some additional shower and
thunderstorm development overnight as the low level jet
amplifies. Fog/stratus will persist into Friday morning before
dissipating by the afternoon. Additional convection will develop
Friday afternoon but with low confidence in location/timing will
not mention so late in the period and allow later guidance a
chance to refine the forecast.

Strong, erratic wind gusts are possible near any thunderstorms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
324 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-222030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
324 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 /224 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms tonight may be capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rain, and even a tornado or two. The
greatest threat of flooding lies across far north central Nebraska,
generally along and north of Highway 20 from Valentine to O'Neill.
The higher potential for a tornado or two would be across southwest
Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening and
night. The main threats are damaging winds, large hail and possibly
an isolated tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Taylor

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
639 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     Rain             Valentine               42.87N 100.55W
09/21/2023  E1.86 inch       Cherry             NE   Public

            Rain gauge report via social media.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

NEZ071-220045-
Frontier NE-
644 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY THROUGH
745 PM CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 17 miles southeast
of Curtis, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area and Orafino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4041 10037 4060 10038 4064 9998 4044 9998
      4044 10009 4037 10009 4036 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 264DEG 12KT 4048 10026

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NMJ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
656 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

NEZ008>010-026>028-038-220100-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Holt NE-Custer NE-Garfield NE-Rock NE-Blaine NE-
656 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ROCK...LOUP...SOUTHEASTERN
BROWN...WESTERN GARFIELD...WESTERN HOLT...NORTHEASTERN CUSTER...
EASTERN BLAINE AND SOUTHEASTERN KEYA PAHA COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bassett to 7 miles east of Brewster to 9
miles east of Dunning. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Burwell, Bassett, Taylor, Brewster, Atkinson, Stuart, Sargent, Long
Pine, Newport, Rose, Amelia, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area,
Milburn Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area, Fox Bayou,
Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Virginia Smith Dam,
Twin Lakes State Wildlife Management Area, Kent Diversion Dam State
Wildlife Management Area, Carson Lake, and Duff.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 114 and 182.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 250 and 297.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 9876 4193 9900 4174 9916 4174 9921
      4168 9921 4160 9928 4182 10004 4273 9963
      4272 9953 4276 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 270DEG 24KT 4262 9953 4195 9971 4183 9992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NMJ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
703 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

NEZ005-025-026-220045-
Eastern Cherry NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-
703 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...WEST
CENTRAL BLAINE AND NORTHERN THOMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 703 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thedford, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thedford, Norway, and Natwick.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 200 and 220.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 144 and 159.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in North Platte.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4190 10070 4201 10076 4221 10037 4195 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 246DEG 14KT 4198 10064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NMJ