Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Key Messages:

- Severe storms possible this evening with large hail/damaging winds
  being the main threats.

- Severe threat shifts mainly south and east of the forecast area
  for Saturday.

- Breezy and cooler across the area Saturday and Sunday with gusty
  west and northwest winds.

H5 analysis this morning had a messy area of low pressure anchored
from northwestern Wyoming into southeastern Montana. Vis satellite
data as of midday has circulations noted in far SW South Dakota, SE
Montana, central Wyoming and NW Wyoming. Further east, a shortwave
trough was located over NE Kansas and SE Nebraska. Over the
remainder of the CONUS and Canada, an elongated area of high
pressure extended from southern Arizona east to the panhandle of
Florida. A closed low was located over Quebec with a trough
extending south to northern portions of the Bahamas. A shortwave
trough was located over northern Saskatchewan with a closed low off
the coast of western British Columbia. At the surface, a stationary
front extended from the central Texas Panhandle, east northeast to
southwestern Missouri. Another frontal boundary extended from
central Montana into southeastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba.
Closer to western and north central Nebraska, a weak surface trough
was present from just east of Valentine to around Lexington
Nebraska. This trough served as a wind shift line with light
southerly or westerly winds west of the boundary with southeasterly
or easterly winds east of the boundary. Another weak convergent wind
boundary extended across the central Nebraska Panhandle this
afternoon. Skies were clear to partly cloudy mid afternoon and 3 PM
CT temperatures ranged from 79 degrees at Gordon to 88 degrees at
Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Precipitation chances and the threat for severe storms, mainly
tonight, is the main forecast challenge. For tonight: In the lead-
up to 6 PM, two areas of thunderstorm initiation are coming to
light across western Nebraska. The first possibility is over north
central Nebraska. This is INVOF of a weak wind convergence
boundary, currently over northern Cherry County. The second area
of concerns is over the south central Panhandle INVOF of another
wind convergence boundary. This second area will more then likely
be influenced by incoming convection from southeastern Wyoming off
the Cheyenne Ridge. Lapse rates in the H85-H70 layer are steeper
in the southern panhandle. So, once convection does initialize, it
should go quickly in this area. Over north central Nebraska,
lapse rates are not as steep so am thinking convection will be
slower to materialize. For storms that do develop and punch into
the mid levels, ample deep layer shear will lead to rotating
storms early on in the evening. Storms should transition to more
of a line by mid evening along the highway 83 corridor, before
weakening in central and eastern Nebraska overnight, due to a
absent low level jet. In the meantime, current thinking is A) The
main hail threat is in the western half of the current slight
risk. B) The main wind threat will be more focused over the
eastern half of the slight risk area where more robust DCAPE is
present. As for initiation timing, current thoughts are are around
3 PM CT in the central and western panhandle, with storms
arriving in the North Platte area around 8 PM CT. Storms should
then exit most of the area by midnight CT. Saturday morning will
be fairly quiet with increasing west and northwest winds by late
morning. The latest NAM12 and 4KM NAM solns are indicating some
gust potential to 30 MPH Saturday morning into the afternoon
hours. This looks viable, especially over the northern half of the
forecast area thanks to cold air advection behind a cold frontal
boundary. This boundary will become oriented from SW Nebraska to
NE Nebraska by 00z Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible in two
areas along this feature. 1) in far southwestern Nebraska and 2)
possibly in our far northeastern forecast area. Based on the model
timing this morning, believe the bulk of the severe threat for
Saturday will be just off to the east and south of the area.
However, if the models slow the front down with its next run or
two, the severe threat will shift north and west, back into
portions of the forecast area. Will pass these concerns on to the
upcoming shift to have them monitor this. Another area of
precipitation will be over northwestern portions of the forecast
area where some wraparound precipitation may develop on the
western and southwestern periphery of the upper level low over
South Dakota. The upper level low will track southeast into
northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota Saturday
night. Precipitation chances will shift from central and northern
portions of the forecast area, into northeastern portions of the
forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday morning with the
threat for precipitation exiting the area by midday. Once again,
we should see some gusty winds, especially late Sunday morning
into the afternoon hours. The 4 KM NAM soln indicates some gust
potential to 40 MPH in the eastern half of the CWA midday Sunday.
This seems believable with statistical guidance forecasting
sustained winds of 25 MPH in the same time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Northwesterly flow aloft will dominate the long term pattern into
next week. Two decent threats for precipitation are Monday night
and again on Tuesday night. On Monday night, the main forcing
mechanism is mid level warm advection with a strong shortwave and
frontal passage for Tuesday night. After cool temperatures in the
70s for Monday, readings will moderate back into the 80s for
Tuesday through Friday with the warmest temps toward the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are underway across wrn and
ncntl Nebraska. This storm activity will move east this evening
and exit the region by 07z-08z.

MVFR ceilings are possible across ncntl Nebraska 12z-15z Saturday
morning. MVFR ceilings are possible across nrn Nebraska Saturday
afternoon, generally affecting areas along and north of highway
20.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible throughout
the day across nrn Nebraska, generally affecting areas along and
north of highway 20.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
255 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
255 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023 /155 PM MDT Fri Aug 4 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
Nebraska this afternoon, spreading eastward across the area late
this afternoon into the evening. A few severe storms are possible,
especially along and west of a line from Bassett to Broken Bow.
Strong wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall are the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few thunderstorms are possible again on Saturday, however, it
appears most of the severe potential will remain east of the area.

Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances persist Sunday into the
middle of next week, primarily in the afternoon and evening. The
severe weather potential remains uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size, damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts as well as flooding.

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