Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2023

Key Messages:

Thunderstorm chances remain tonight but overall poor model agreement
keeps confidence low.

A cold front will bring a bit of relief from the heat this weekend.
Heat returns the first of next week.

Scattered thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast through
the weekend into next week. Overall confidence remains low on
any severe potential and locations to receive the activity.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Typical summer upper level ridge of high pressure is centered across
New Mexico. A weak perturbation is observed tracking eastward across
northern Nebraska per WV imagery. Another weak disturbance was
moving east-northeastward across southeast Idaho. Appears that the
upstream disturbance in Idaho will provide enhanced lift across
northern Wyoming late this afternoon where scattered convection
should develop. As the disturbance tracks across Wyoming this
evening, expect some additional convective  development early this
evening along the Laramie Range. Overall poor model agreement today
on the exact convective scenario, but recent runs of High-Res models
indicate that at least a couple of clusters of storms should emerge
from Wyoming into western Nebraska/South Dakota mid to late evening.
As with the last few evenings, these could pose a threat for strong
wind gusts as they move east toward central Nebraska late tonight.

The upstream Idaho disturbance will track through the Dakotas and
into Minnesota during the day Saturday. As this occurs a cold front
will surge southward through the area Saturday morning. The front
will gradually begin to stall from southwest Colorado to southern
Kansas Saturday night. Low-level flow will gradually becoming east
to southeast (upslope flow) Saturday night into Sunday across
Nebraska to the north of the boundary. Confidence is low regarding
storm chances Saturday. Most plausible scenario would be for
convection to develop late in the afternoon in the Black Hills
vicinity and track southeastward into Nebraska during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Pattern overall remains unchanged as we head into Sunday and next
week. The center of the upper level ridge is forecast to slowly
migrate northward into Colorado Sunday. This will maintain northwest
flow aloft across our region on the northeast periphery of the high.
A weak disturbance within the flow should help to enhance POPS
somewhat Sunday night as convection develops near the Black Hills
and then dives southeastward. The upper ridge center then begins to
move eastward over KS by Monday and then settles southward into the
Southern Plains by mid week. Overall the flow aloft gradually
weakens. Although there will remain near daily chances for at least
isolated convection, organized, severe storms will be less likely.
Expect mid and upper level moisture to circulate northward across
the desert southwest, then turn eastward across the Central Plains
on the northern fringes of the upper high in Monsoonal type flow.
Late in the week the upper ridge center could migrate back
westward to more across the desert southwest. Northwest flow aloft
would increase once again across our area as a result. This would
allow for better shear and possibly more organized convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Typical summer upper level ridge of high pressure is centered across
New Mexico. A weak perturbation is observed tracking eastward across
northern Nebraska per WV imagery. Another weak disturbance was
moving east-northeastward across southeast Idaho. Appears that the
upstream disturbance in Idaho will provide enhanced lift across
northern Wyoming late this afternoon where scattered convection
should develop. As the disturbance tracks across Wyoming this
evening, expect some additional convective  development early this
evening along the Laramie Range. Overall poor model agreement today
on the exact convective scenario, but recent runs of High-Res models
indicate that at least a couple of clusters of storms should emerge
from Wyoming into western Nebraska/South Dakota mid to late evening.
As with the last few evenings, these could pose a threat for strong
wind gusts as they move east toward central Nebraska late tonight.

The upstream Idaho disturbance will track through the Dakotas and
into Minnesota during the day Saturday. As this occurs a cold front
will surge southward through the area Saturday morning. The front
will gradually begin to stall from southwest Colorado to southern
Kansas Saturday night. Low-level flow will gradually becoming east
to southeast (upslope flow) Saturday night into Sunday across
Nebraska to the north of the boundary. Confidence is low regarding
storm chances Saturday. Most plausible scenario would be for
convection to develop late in the afternoon in the Black Hills
vicinity and track southeastward into Nebraska during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Pattern overall remains unchanged as we head into Sunday and next
week. The center of the upper level ridge is forecast to slowly
migrate northward into Colorado Sunday. This will maintain northwest
flow aloft across our region on the northeast periphery of the high.
A weak disturbance within the flow should help to enhance POPS
somewhat Sunday night as convection develops near the Black Hills
and then dives southeastward. The upper ridge center then begins to
move eastward over KS by Monday and then settles southward into the
Southern Plains by mid week. Overall the flow aloft gradually
weakens. Although there will remain near daily chances for at least
isolated convection, organized, severe storms will be less likely.
Expect mid and upper level moisture to circulate northward across
the desert southwest, then turn eastward across the Central Plains
on the northern fringes of the upper high in Monsoonal type flow.
Late in the week the upper ridge center could migrate back
westward to more across the desert southwest. Northwest flow aloft
would increase once again across our area as a result. This would
allow for better shear and possibly more organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Ongoing scattered thunderstorms across the northwest Sandhills are
expected to move east into portions of north central Nebraska,
including the KVTN terminal overnight. Winds will be out of the
southeast around 5 to 10 kts overnight into early morning, with
winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts out of the east southeast
tomorrow afternoon, with gust up to 20 kts possible. There is
also an isolated chance of thunderstorms Saturday evening, however
at this time confidence is low in exact location of storms so
have left thunderstorm chances out of the tafs for tomorrow
evening. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
845 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-300145-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
845 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 /745 PM MDT Fri Jul 28 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across central
and western Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
severe threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a slight risk for severe storms Saturday along a 100 mile
wide corridor, centered from Hay Springs to Arnold. Elsewhere across
western and north central Nebraska, there is a marginal risk for
severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

On Sunday, thunderstorms are possible across all of western and
north central Nebraska. There is a marginal risk for severe storms
over the western half of Sheridan County and into the panhandle.

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours
Monday through Thursday. At this time, the severe threat is
uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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