Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

...Aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and evening, with
  the threat for strong to severe storms. Southwest Nebraska seems
  to stand the highest chance for severe through this evening.

- Some chance for precipitation lingers through the weekend though
  confidence is low in regards to timing and location.

- A deep trough develops across the western CONUS by the middle of
  next week. Appears an increase in convective activity should
  develop downstream of this feature across the Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Low-level moisture continues to advect northward into KS this
morning with dew points rising through the upper 50s to near 60F.
Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave located across UT and
advancing toward CO. Surface low pressure will deepen this afternoon
across eastern CO in response to the approaching wave. Low-level
southeast flow will increase across KS and NE as the low deepens.
This will help to maintain and advect higher quality low-level Gulf
moisture westward into southwest NE by late this afternoon and this
evening. A warm front will sharpen across far southwest into south
central NE by late afternoon and become one focus for convective
development. The other area for convective initiation will be along
and just east of the front range.

CAPE values will be greatest along and south of the warm front where
the better low-level moisture will be located. The warm front will
serve for at least isolated supercell development very late this
afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will be in the process of
strengthening during that time. In addition, mid-level lapse rates
will steepen further which will aid in maintaining better
instability into the evening hours. A bit of a complicated scenario,
but the warm front should surge northward to near the I-80 corridor
across southwest early this evening. This would carry the isolated
supercell threat northward to around I-80. Meanwhile the Front Range
convection will be moving eastward into the area and could merge
with any ongoing storms near the warm front. Agree with the SPC
outlook for potentially 2"+ diameter hail across southwest NE. This
is where the steepest mid-level lapse rates and best instability
will reside. Tornado threat is there as well, with 0-1km helicity
values increasing early this evening as the southeast H85 flow
increases to around 35 kts. By late evening storms should have
congealed into an MCS and be tracking though the Sandhills/north
central into central NE.

Westerly low-level flow will tend to scour out some of the low-
level moisture Saturday. This will lead to less instability but
could still see a few higher based storms across far northern NE
during the late afternoon as a cold front sags southward toward
that area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

A general west to southwest flow aloft should be in place Sunday.
NAM hints that low-level moisture returns westward as upslope flow
increases. This scenario would maintain late afternoon High Plains
convection as it tracks eastward Sunday night. Otherwise a warm
weather pattern looks to develop next week. Southwest flow aloft
develops ahead of deep upper level trough that should be located
across the Intermountain west by Wednesday. The last few runs of
the GFS and ECMWF are looking more favorable for active downstream
convection across the Plains amid a warm, moist and unstable
environment.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Main concern this TAF period is the potential for severe
thunderstorms to impact central and western Nebraska. Expect
convection will evolve into a linear complex with potential to
impact both KVTN and KLBF with similar timing. KVTN has some
thunderstorm activity ongoing at issuance, but expect the main
threat window will be roughly 02z-04z so will indicate this with
prevailing and TEMPO groups with gusts to 50kt along with some
large hail. The storms look to be moving off to the east after
Midnight followed by clouds trending down to MVFR with a TEMPO to
IFR early Saturday morning. Conditions once again attain VFR by
Saturday afternoon.

Will monitor radar trends and observations and amend TAFs once
clear trends become evident.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
458 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061200-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
458 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 /358 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect generally south of Highway 2
until Midnight CDT. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
across southwest Nebraska late this afternoon and evening, which will
then spread northward into the Sandhills and north central Nebraska.
Some storms could become strong to severe and contain large hail and
damaging winds this evening. It appears the greatest threat for golf
ball size hail or larger will remained confined to southwest
Nebraska. There is also a small risk of an isolated tornado across
southwest Nebraska, generally along and south of interstate 80.
Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall is also possible
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
Saturday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

NEZ071-060030-
Frontier NE-
647 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Frontier
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 647 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stockville, or 12 miles southeast of Curtis, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eustis, Stockville, Orafino, Freedom and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4047 10050 4070 10037 4070 10008 4067 10001
      4038 10029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 209DEG 15KT 4049 10035

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
558 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023

NEZ057-058-060045-
Perkins NE-Keith NE-
558 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Perkins
and southwestern Keith Counties through 645 PM MDT...

At 558 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Venango, or 14 miles south of Big Springs, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brule, Brandon and Megeath.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 109 and
122.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4077 10205 4118 10205 4114 10178 4076 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 191DEG 18KT 4085 10204

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
705 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

NEZ005-094-060030-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
705 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Cherry
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 705 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Kilgore to near Sicangu Village. Movement
was northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kilgore and Crookston.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 174 and 188.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 217 and 222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4291 10053 4291 10097 4300 10106 4300 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 207DEG 14KT 4298 10088 4296 10061

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Taylor

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